Well you’ve ‘pretty much got it’ Nick. Put it this way: every day (night) at midnight ‘broker time’ I go through all the instruments available to me to trade and look for valid SI System entry or stop and reverse signals (I use a stop and reverse as an entry point also if I’m not already in a position on that instrument by the way). If I have a valid signal then I list it in that spreadsheet with the potential direction of the trade and the ADXR(7) value. I then sort the spredsheet by ADXR(7). Then I start at the top and take a look at the repective chart again and if I’m ‘happy’ with the entry then I’ll place the order (and by ‘happy’ I mean ‘in keeping’ with what I described earlier i.e. using a bit of ‘intellect’). I work my way down the list INITIALLY LEAVING any ‘exotics’ out of the picture and see if I can get six trades on the majors and the crosses and, if not, I’ll take a look at the exotics and see if the signals ‘measure up’. If they do then I’ll place the orders. Trading a number of ‘six’ is actually a ‘function’ of Wilder’s money management rules more than than anything else i.e. if you work with his money management percentages then six postions is all you can open and still fall within the ‘range’ of his money management rules. I DO on occasion go ‘slightly’ over the percentage of maximum margin being used now and then however but only by a single position or two e.g. if I already have six ‘good’ signals on forex pairs BUT I’m also getting a ‘good’ signal on Gold and Oil for example. I NEVER exceed the maximum percentage allowable to be used on a single position though. (And remember that HIS money management rules are based on 50:1 leverage so at 200:1 and / or 400:1 I adjust accordingly as per the table that I posted some time back). One other thing to be careful of though: this past week ALL my ‘top’ insruments JUST HAPPENED to be ???/JPY and I placed the orders BUT it only ocurred to me afterward that this was EXTREMELY risky i.e. it was like ‘doubling up’ (actually ‘quadrupling up’) on the JPY which is already in ‘breach’ of his money management rules!!! To be honest: had the Dow not dropped like it did on Friday I could have been sitting with HUGE losses because I was too ‘JPY heavy’!!! Just watch out for this i.e. JUST BECAUSE the top four or five instruments on the ADXR JUST HAPPEN TO BE ???/JPY does NOT mean that you HAVE to place the orders. Rather take the ‘best’ one and then work your way down the list i.e. take the ‘sort of’ ‘next highest different insrument’ and work your way down from there until you have a couple of orders placed.
By the way: I going to spend the rest of this weekend seeing what the possible improvement (if any) may be of tracking ADXR(7) for the weekly and monthly timeframes as well i.e. ‘filter’ the instruments that have the highest daily, weekly, AND monthly ADXR(7) and see what the outcome of THAT could possibly be. (The reason for wanting to ‘check this out’ is because I DO know from ‘the past’ that ADXR is more ‘true’ on the weekly and monthly timeframes than it’s ever been on the daily timeframe although that was when I was ‘tracking’ ADXR(14) and not ADXR(7)).
Lastly: always remember that it’s ADXR AND NOT ADX to which I refer!!!
I’m just away to pour a drink, get the football on and sit down and read through the Swing Index section of the book. Judging by your performance using it, I’ll be paying close attention and see what I make of it. This looks like it could be the “meat and drink” section of the book.
So, you feel ADXR(7) is the way to go then. I have put it up on all my charts and can see it reacts a lot quicker than ADXR(14).
Well I’m not entirely sure that the Swing Index System is THE ONLY ‘meat and drink’ system in the book but it’s the one that looked the most complicated to me so I just figured it would be the most profitable!!! (I have that kind of mind)!!! For all I know the Volatility System is more profitable (and according to 'the ‘ol man’ it possibly IS) but I’ve only ever ‘stuck’ to the Swing Index System so far and I’m not gonna start messing with something that works this well for me anyway. I’m one of those people who NEEDS to have a system where I have to ‘tinker about’ with it all the time and export data and draw charts and stuff like that whereas most ‘normal’ human beings would rather have something SIMPLE that requires very little maintenance (like Parabolic SAR for example) and works. Like I said: it (the Swing Index System) works well for me but may NOT be another persons ‘cup of tea’!!! One thing that I CAN assure you of though: 'the ‘ol man’ is a GENUIS so I don’t think it matters WHICH system you follow in the book i.e. you WILL profit from it!!! I AM (as a matter of fact) always ‘watching and waiting’ to see how trades made with the other systems would have ‘panned out’ and from where I sit I don’t see that it matters WHICH one you use. For what it’s worth my ‘rating’ of the systems would probably be (EXCLUDING the Swing Index System of course): the Volatility System, the Parabolic Time Price System (would you believe), the Trend Balance Point System, and last, but not least, the Reaction Trend System (and like I said yesterday: using ADX CORRECTLY the Directional Movement System also has merit)!!!
Just browsed through the Swing Index section of the book. Yes, there certainly are enough numbers and calculations to be done there to keep the buddying mathematicians amongst us happy. How did wilder think this stuff up?! A genius indeed!
Yuuup!!! That’s me!!! That’s the Swing Index System for ya!!! The more complicated the better and the more faith someone like me has in a system!!! No surprise that I did not become a ‘gazillionaire’ out of good 'ol Parabolic SAR!!! I ‘rest my case’!!!
However:
Let me say this:
Although it MAY look daunting at first it becomes a ‘cinch’ (eventually) to actually be able to ‘visually pick out’ the HSP’s and LSP’s and Trailing Index SAR’s i.e. I find that lately it’s only when the price of an instrument has moved ‘questionably close’ to hitting the Trailing Index SAR or if I’m in any doubt that the price of an instruments has in fact closed above or below an HSP or an LSP that I find myself actually looking at the ASI numbers to be sure that there is actually a stop and reverse (or entry) signal being given. (Of course that coupled with the fact that I have the Swing Index System complete with the Trailing Index SAR as well as an ‘order placement system’ ‘coded’ into my platforms is what makes it relatively easy and quick for me to operate i.e. place orders, remove orders, stop and reverse, etc. Having said that: at GCI I’m still mostly using Excel ‘when in doubt’ for the simple reason that it’s sometimes very difficult to actually see the ASI reading on the ASI indicator that I’ve coded for the platform because of the platforms design and even then once the spreadsheets have been set up correctly it’s just a matter of exporting the data from the platform and have Excel read the data file and you’re done).
Whatever you do don’t get discouraged or feel it’s not worth the effort. Remember that it took me the better part of two months working just about every day all day to ‘code’ these systems and get them working ‘perfectly’ on the trading platforms. While the formulae may not LOOK ‘impressive’ remember that I before I could even START I had to familiarise myself with the script language for both GCI and Delta’s platforms and this of course takes time as well to get it ‘just right’!!!
(You SEE: THIS is why I have come to LOATHE weekends i.e. no new posts for me, no email messages, brokers closed, hangover gone, cannot start drinking now, cannot update things on the GCI platform because it’s inaccessible over the weekends, already gone through and picked entries for the week yesterday already, already cleaned my office, already cleaned my workstations and screens, my business partner is still asleep so no YM chats, . . .)!!! Woe is me!!! (Sad I know)!!!
SO I thought I’d just try and ‘liven things up a bit’ myself!!!
Something to think about:
I’ve been taking a good look at the Reaction Trend System (seriously this time) and I can tell you that if and when you find instruments with an ADXR(7) rating of less than 20 (and the lower the better) then you’re sitting on a potential ‘gold mine’ with the Reaction Trend System from what I can see. Just take a look at the current daily chart of USD/CHF for example (which has the LOWEST ADXR(7) value on my ‘Swing Index System Daily Signals Work Sheet’ which is what I’ve decided to call it from now on). Had you started using the Reaction Trend System from the day that this instruments ADXR(7) value dropped below 20 you would have been able to ‘bat the price from side to side’ for a while and come out with some VERY nice profits. (And remember that USD/CHF has the lowest ADXR(7) value on my work sheet where I’m ONLY looking at possible Swing Index System entries i.e. I have not even LOOKED to see if there is an instrument a lower ADXR(7) value). ALSO: keep an ‘eye’ on the ADXR(7) values. Remember: that both the Reaction Trend System AND the Swing Index System can be used to trade ‘breakouts’ and therefore the lower the ADXR(7) value and the longer the period that ADXR(7) value has BEEN low the more likely a MASSIVE ‘breakout’ is going to occur in the near future. Conversely I would imagine it ‘prudent’ to watch instruments where the ADXR(7) value is beginning to ‘wane’ or decrease i.e. indicating the end of a trend. There is a ‘school of thought’ that in order to MAXIMISE profits you should have two systems going at any one time i.e. one for trading trends and one for trading ranges. Maybe a ‘combo’ of the Swing Index System AND the Reaction Trend System could nett +200% gain on capital monthly!!! Who knows!!! Food for thought though and definitely worth pursuing!!!
Good to see you up and about today Dale. No hangover form last night?
I read through the Recation and Swing Index systems over the last couple of days as well as making spreadsheets for some of the other systems. Thanks for the info you passed me on the SI as I think those spreadsheet calculations are a bit out of my league.
For the week ahead, I’m going to continue with the TBP on the the instruments I have selected and will have a stab at some SI selections.
My other “must do” is to continue to on with my familarisation with the Delta trading platform. I’m going to work my way through the manual.
I got an email from GCI saying my demo will expire next week so I will have to create another one. I’m not ready to go live just yet at either Delta or GCI.
One other thing I noticed on OANDA, is that my daily candles open and close at 12:00 midday local time here (0400 GMT) but the spreads at this time day are higher than what they are when New York is open. This is a bit of a pain as on most of Wilders systems I will be required to place positions at the close/open of daily candles… Maybe Delta or GCI will be better in this respect. It’s something I’ll have to look into.
Nah: the hangover I was talking about (above) is / was still from Thursday!!! Like I said: I’m getting too old for ‘drink’ I think i.e. three days MINIMUM recovery period!!! (BUT I’ll probably be ‘singing the same tune’ by Friday this week again)!!!
I never realised that Oanda had variable spreads??? At Delta you have the choice between fixed and variable (I always used fixed) and at GCI I’ve NEVER seen spreads widen more than a point / tick / pip EVER and THEN only on one or two instruments.
I’m currently ‘tracking’ some Volaility System trades (on my ‘ADXR(7) top six’) (still waiting for entry signals mind you) and (free margin percentage / money management rules permitting) I’ll take some trades if they come my way. I reckon this week I’m also going to see about one or two Reaction Trend System trades (maybe). What’s ‘nice’ about Reaction Trend System trades is that the’yre normally over (one way or the other) by the next day or so (much the same as the Trend Balance Point System trades) based on my (limited) experience with the system anyway (and from what I’ve ‘observed’ this weekend). The ‘trick’ with using more than one of these systems (as I discovered earlier and posted details of such ‘trick’) is to NOT ‘mix’ the systems i.e. if you’re in a Volatility System trade then use the Volatility System throughout the trade i.e. don’t use one system as an entry and then try to use another for an exit or to perform a stop and reverse.
Anyway: I had BETTER find something else to do for the rest of the day. Looking (again) at my Swing Index System ‘potential trades’ for tonight I MAY just be better off ‘staying out’ until Monday night SO WHO KNOWS: ‘mebbe’ a nice strong curry lunch and Captain Morgan may the ‘order of the day’!!!
I tell you what! Just been playing around on Delta on the charts and i’m starting to get the hang of it. Just like Macdonalds say “I’m lovin it!” ,at the moment anyway.
(By the way Boca: I have to be ABSOLUTELY STARVING before I eat Macdonalds)!!!
Ok look folks: I really think I need to clarify something here before I end up causing GREAT PAIN to someone (anyone):
I have ‘alluded’ now and then to gains of 100% and 200% and 280% per month since this thread was started. YES: it is ‘possible’ i.e. ANYTHING is ‘possible’ BUT do I now ‘shoot for this’ every month??? HELL NO!!! Let me tell you that even 10% gain per month is a FANTASTIC return and I’ll tell you that one of the MAJOR contributing factors to my success in the past couple of months or so has been BECAUSE I’m not ‘shooting’ for ‘astronomical’ and ‘outrageous’ gains any longer!!! IF they happen from time to time then it’s a ‘bonus’ and needless to say a great feeling but it’s certainly NOT something that I’m ‘busting my bal*s to achieve’. Setting a goal of 200% gain on capital per month IS a recipe for disaster and I have NO doubt in my mind about that!!!
I just realised something today that hadn’t come to my attention before. When I was trading the PSAR system (and I still am when a nice looking entry comes along) the actual timing of the entry was not such a major concern as I would likely be in the market for a week plus so a few pips here and there either side of opening time didn’t make much difference.
However, now that I am experimenting with the TBP system, the profit targets are a lot smaller so I realised I really need to be placing my orders at the market close or at opening time. Now, due to my brokers (OANDA) candle closing time and the time zone I live in, this either means getting up early doors on a Monday morning or staying up late on a Friday night. When I got out of bed this morning and switched on, I noticed I was too late to enter a couple of trades. Anyway, lesson learnt there.
The other thing I want to get an opinion on (Dale, anybody), is if you look at the Reaction system and some of the others, do you think that Sunday candles play any affect. I mean, at the time he wrote the book, he would of been living in the US trading Monday to Friday US time, so no problem for him. Not such a globalised world at that time. But now we have some brokers with a small sunday candle (usually) or effectively a 6 day trading week?! Any thoughts on that?
If you look at the Reaction System, you have to label the days BOSBOSBOS etc, I think this Sunday candle could have an affect in this case.
Hey Boca, I’ve been trading the TBP system for the past 2 months or so and I always got good results combining the sunday and monday candle into one. My broker is also Oanda, and because of the decreased trading volume on sunday the candle is never very big. Since Oanda uses midnight New York time for their daily candle start/end times and I am on the west coast of the U.S. my daily candle closes at 8 pm local for me. I also have that same problem you have with the variable spreads Oanda uses, because 8 pm local for me is an hour or two before the asian session gets started so my spreads are a little higher. I guess I am just living with it for now, but when I switch to GCI later on that won’t be a problem. Oh, and I saw a post earlier where you said you might need a spreadsheet for one of the systems, I can’t remember. But if you need one, I have spreadsheets for the TBP and volatility systems that work great. Just let me know…
Dale-- not sure if you follow golf but a South African won the Masters Tournament today… and it wasn’t Ernie Els either… it was some underdog guy… thought I would mention that. Anyway, so far this term my classes have been a little easier than I expected so I should have some time later this week to dive into the RT system… I also need to make a spreadsheet for my adxr values because I don’t trust the oanda or metatrader figures, they are always different. Hope the week is off to a good start for everyone…
I have also ordered the book and eagerly waiting to receive it here in South Africa. I wanted to ask you a question. Grom reading the posts, I can see that you are studying ie you are not trading full time. I am sitting in the same situation, howver, I am working full time. I do have internet access at work, but from your experience, is it possible to trade these sytems on a “part-time” basis.
I would appreciate you feedback,
Oh by the way, if I may answer, Trevor Immelman is the guy who won the Masters.
Hi Eddie… thanks for reminding me of the winner’s name…quite a tournament he had. I must say that I was rooting for him to hold off Tiger, being from the U.S. I appreciate how much he has accomplished, but I’m a little tired of seeing T. Woods win all the time. I like seeing the new guys win too… so cheers!
Anyway, to respond to your question, yes, I do think it is possible to trade these systems (on the daily timeframe) even if you have school or a day job. The only time I really spend on the trading is right when the daily candle closes, which will vary depending on where you are in the world and what broker you use, but for me it is 8 pm local time. A few minutes before 8 pm, I get my broker’s software open and my spreadsheets. As soon as the candle closes, I enter in all of the data, look over it to figure out the trades I need to place, and then place the trades. Start to finish I’d say it takes me between 15 and 30 minutes, depending on how fast I am working. Right now I am following the TBP system with 2 instruments, the volatility system with 3, and the Swing Index with 2, although starting tomorrow I am going to start following these trades based on their adxr rating, which is going to take more time. Even after all of these additions, I can’t see how it will take me more than 45 minutes or an hour total. I will check my open trades from time to time throughout the day, but it is only a quick glance and I don’t spend more than a few minutes doing that. As long as you can be at the computer for about 5 minutes before and 45 minutes or so after the daily candle closes, I think you can have success with these systems.
Strangely enough this was the only question I actually EVER asked Wilder HIMSELF about and he answered me. I had (have???) the issue with GCI i.e. a Sunday and a Monday candlestick or bar (Delta ONLY gives you a Monday candlestick or bar BUT the Monday is made up of Sunday’s AND Monday’s price action i.e. COMBINED). I made some suggestions to him in this regard and he agreed with me to NOT discard the Sunday candlestick or bar but to COMBINE it with Monday’s candlestick or bar (as Delta has always done) which is what I have been doing to date at GCI. As you quite correctly ‘observed’: Wilder did not have this issue i.e. the instruments that he traded (trades???) have exchange dependant opening and closing times i.e. not 24 hours and no Sunday trading.
As far as the ‘time’ issues with the TBP System are concerned: you don’t have a choice I’m afraid i.e. you just have to have access to your trading platform at the time that the current candlestick or bar closes and the new one opens otherwise (as you have already discovered) you will miss trades.
This may be a dumb question, but how do you know what time the candlebar actually closes? The charting software I’m using (ODL’s MT4) seems to be displaying my system time… does it take my system time (here in New Zealand) and start a new candle when it strikes midnight here? Or does it start a new candle at midnight GMT… or something else??
To answer your question, if you go to your current daily candle and hover over it with your mouse, it will tell you the date and time of that candle. That will be the time that the candle opened.
If your not sure what time it is at your brokers software, go to an hourly chart and hover on the most recent hourly candle and it will tell you the opening time of that candle.
I think it can be done with a full time job. I am employed full time and have been managing to get by.
Chirules rightly pointed out that you just nee dto be around your computer during opening and closing time of the candles. Although he said about 45 mins, It actually takes me a little bit longer but that is mainly due to me being sh*t at working excel:D
Thanks for the feedback on the Sunday candle issue. I did actually think about combining the Sunday and Monday Candle into one. That is what I’ll do in the future.
Chirules,
If i’m not being too nosy, Could I ask you for a look at your spreadsheets. I did make some for both the TBP and VS but there’s no harm in seeing if I can improve on them. Thanks for that. If you like, I’ll send you mine just so you can appreciate how good your ones are. my email is <[email protected]>
I have sent an email to Delta but I just know that they will ask me for a screenshot or screendump of the error. I have sent you an email to this effect (well a message to Yahoo anyway). If you could let me have this (a screen dump of the error when it occurs) then I reckon we could speed up the process of solving the problem.
Anyway, so far this term my classes have been a little easier than I expected so I should have some time later this week to dive into the RT system… I also need to make a spreadsheet for my adxr values because I don’t trust the oanda or metatrader figures, they are always different. Hope the week is off to a good start for everyone…