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“Death is nothing; but to live defeated and inglorious is to die daily.”-Napoleon Bonaparte "
Can’t win them all.
Have a nice weekend.
Good (Saturday) morning all!!!
Before I start (to all of those who have been ‘concerned’ as to why I have not posted this week): I just simply had nothing to say is all i.e. no new ‘tweaks’ or ‘light bulb moments’ or anything like that (well up until this morning that is)!!!
I see some ‘disturbing’ posts here!!! Let me at least TRY to help you out!!!
Now: the very first thing to NOT do is PANICK!!!
I reason we’re all down (and yes I’m in exactly the same position as everyone else right now) is mainly because of the NFP’s and the effect that those figures have had on stocks and in turn on forex pairs and commodities. There is also concern about credit card companies now (defaults are on the rise). The Dow lost 410 points yesterday (and strangely enough it ALSO closed BELOW the INITIAL VS SAR signal to go long which was given on 23 January 2008). This is important to you BECAUSE currencies like the EUR, GBP, and JPY ‘follow’ or ‘mimic’ the movements on the Dow.
Right: please believe me when I say that you have absolutely NOTHING to worry about!!! I have spent MANY MANY hours just sitting and watching charts and I can assure you that this is nothing other than a temporary setback AND THE WORST THING THAT YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW is to start closing positions early because you’re dissapointed in the fact that you’re now showing losses and you’re worried that these things are not going to turn and you’re going to ‘wipe out’. Not only is this going to cost you money but it’s also going to ‘mess with your head’!!! Please trust me on this one i.e. ‘been there many times before and got the t-shirts’!!! As long as you are following the systems and (more importantly) following the money management rules you WILL prosper in the end!!! Sometimes in the past four or five months I’ve been DOWN as much as 50% or more on occasion BUT it never lasts more than a day or two and after that everything turns to big profits. Remember: it’s the ‘panick buying or selling’ that actually contributes to these huge movements so the last thing you want to do is exacerbate the situation. You have to see the past couple of months as a sort of ‘culling process’ i.e. the market is doing a bit of ‘housekeeping’ as it were.
Now: if the above does not make you feel any better then my next couple of points SHOULD!!
First: the ECB MAY raise interest rates next month so this is good for the EUR (and good for you if you’re long any EUR positions).
Second: there is no way that the US Fed is going to cut interest rates further so now would be a very good time to start looking for USD long positions.
Third: the US is NOT going to ‘close down’ I assure you!!! It’s just simply not going to happen no matter WHAT anyone tells you no matter WHO they are!!! For better or for worse the US Fed has already demonstrated that it will do WHATEVER IT HAS TO to ensure that Wall Street and the US economy does not collapse and they have the power and the resources to ensure that this neither of these things happen.
Fourth: you should be GRATEFUL that things have changed so dramatically this week BECAUSE all it does is present good trading opportunities for next week.
Now to the individual posts:
kaalilaatikko:
GET THOSE INDICATORS OFF YOUR CHARTS my friend!!! You CANNOT trade Wilder’s systems AND use other indicators!!! I am STILL sitting in a HUGE loss on AUD/NZD right now BECAUSE instead of following Wilder’s systems I ‘second guessed’ the systems BECAUSE of Stochastics and what I ‘felt’ was going to happen with Oil and Gold. I will close the position out at BE (or maybe a profit) soon but be that as it may it’s cost me money in the sense that I’ve not been able to make as many trades as usual because I’ve got margin tied up in this position and of course I’m paying interest on the thing every day. It’s a lesson learned and as I’ve said before: you will NEVER find ANYTHING NOT WILDER on my charts ever again. I really don’t care what anyone else says about Stochastics by the way. If you want a FINE example of how misleading Stochastics can be just go and have a look at USD/CAD last year!!! Stochastics were oversold for months on end. Had you started buying because according to Stochastics the price was going to turn I can assure you that you would most certainly have wiped out your account (with or without stop losses)!!! If you REALLY MUST have a ‘similar’ type indicator on your charts (simply to make you feel better by the way) then please change to Wilder’s RSI!!!
Randon:
I’m not sure what you mean when you say that you read the charts wrong. If you’re trading Wilder’s systems then there (theoretically) is no need to interpret ANY chart i.e. the systems are ‘purely technical’ or ‘mechanical’ if you like. Admittedly I do look for support and resistance levels and the presence or absence of a trend (based on ADX/ADXR and LRC’s) but that’s about it. (I’m going to send you an email after completing this post so please check your email).
Other than AUD/NZD (which is still open so for the purposes of this statement does not count as yet) I have not closed a single position out at a loss for the past six weeks or so. Sometimes the profit may have only been $5 but that’s better than a loss of any kind and I see no reason why others cannot achieve the same. (I am hoping that one or two of my ‘clients’ who are trading their own accounts will ‘jump in’ here to ‘back me up’ by the way AND NOT the ones that have realised their very OWN losses because they ‘panicked’. You KNOW who you are)!!!
Again: DO NOT PANICK!!! The reason that ‘da big boyz’ make money in this business is because they KNOW that people like you and I are GOING to panick and they’re there to pick you (us) off one by one!!!
I know what you are talking about Dale… I have two open VS trades on my demo account sitting at huge losses right now, usd/nok and usd/sek. I was tempted to close them out today, but you just have to “hang on” and follow the system like a robot. You can’t let emotion get in the way of it. Correct me if i’m wrong, but usd/nok follows oil prices and from everything I’ve read, this surge in oil prices can’t go on forever. I know that I’ve already taken measures to buy less gas and it’s a matter of time before people realize that they are tired of paying $4.50 for gas, and demand will go down again.
I have been trying out the TBPS system with the extra parameters i.e. only take trade in direction of LRC’s and make sure there is enough room in the LRCs for the price to “run” and while it limits the trades you can make, it seems to be a good idea. I had one winning trade on usd/jpy a few days ago but my current trade is sitting at a loss because of the big drop in the DJIA and what not today. There are several opportunites pending on the next trading day, so we’ll see how it works out.
Dale: I got the e-mail from Georgi and hopefully within a week or two my account will be opened, I just emailed my documents so the long part is mailing the stuff all the way to Bulgaria… looking forward to finally getting it done though.
P.S. It is a friday night here, I apologize for any grammar errors, I’m not sober. lol.
Hey,
Thanks for the post. Nice to hear from you (and glad you’re enjoying your evening. I did pretty much the same thing last night as a matter of fact)!!!
You are quite correct i.e. about the NOK ‘tracking’ the price of Oil and I ALSO agree with you i.e. that these prices cannot continue to go up and up forever (at least not without a correction). Also remember (obviously) that the fundamentals of the OTHER currency of the pair play a part too (and like I said: I believe in the United States Dollar)!!!
I wouldn’t worry myself too much about pairs that have droppped because of the big drop in the Dow. I watch the Dow ALWAYS and have been doing so since I started and I can tell you that it does not drop this much and not recover either the next day or the next so again: it’s just patience and restraint AND MONEY MANAGEMENT that is required and you’re ‘good to go’!!!
I am ‘liking’ the LRC’s with the RTS more and more every day. I’ve added some more RTS levels to my RTS (remember: pivots) and the combination I believe is ‘lethal’!!! Again: I think it really should work well with the TBPS also (although I’ve not tried it out yet to be honest). I have had a cursory look and it though and it would certainly seem that if you’ve just been given a signal to go long by the MF and the price closed in the bottom half of the channel then the trade will hit the TP target 99.999% of the time (yesterdays ‘moves’ of course not being taken into account). (Of course the opposite applies to a short position i.e. the price has closed in the top half of the channel).
And I think you’re ‘on the button’ when you say there are plenty of trading opportunities coming up. I for one are looking for USD longs right now!!! Take a look at (most of) the USD/??? and ???/USD pairs and note that in most cases there is what appears to be solid resistance at or near to where they moved on Friday (also WOULD YOU BELIEVE with NZD/???)!!! Actually: this just ‘backs up’ my statement above i.e. where the fundamentals of the OTHER currency in a pair play a part e.g. I’m looking for USD longs on most of the USD/??? pairs now BUT NZD/USD is (technically anyway) (supposedly) close to a bottom. As a matter of fact I think it was Boca that posted earlier sometime saying that he does not watch the commodity associated with the ‘commdolls’ because it only serves to complicate matters and confuse you and I have to say that I agree with him i.e. trade each pair ‘in isolation’. While you obviously CANNOT deny (because of yesterdays moves) that the ???/NOK pairs for example are LARGELY dependant on the price of Oil I would still trade them in isolation. Remember: I was VERY sure that the price of Oil and Gold would drop and that ‘feeling’ (as well as good 'ol Stochastics) is what got me into this AUD/NZD ‘mess’. The facts of the matter are that firstly I was wrong and secondly Gold is no longer ‘tracking’ the Oil price i.e. it’s started to ‘lag’ and no longer ‘mimics’ the Oil chart. So: what’s the point? Me basing a trade on one pair while looking at what another instrument / pair or commodity is doing has ‘backfired’ now and in doing so my ‘better judgement’ was ‘clouded’ and I ignored signals from ‘the man’!!!
Glad to hear about your account too. (I’m going to be sending you an email TOO after posting this message).
I’ve been trading with Dale for several months now using real money and following Wilders systems and Dale’ indicators. On average with Wilders systems I’ve been seeing a 15% net gain on capital weekly.
My account doesn’t truly reflect such because I have made out of system trades, AUD/NZD was one that I saw and recommended to Dale. He agreed that it looked great, we both jumped in mid April. I started with 3 lot sizes, 1.875% of my account balance being 1 lot, the account balance at the time was 16,583.00 (do the math I was playing with decent sized lots). I was so confident about this trade.
Well the economic reports came out and major news spike the wrong way. I let it ride to a loss showing of 1500.00 and it seemed the news spike was leveling out so I doubled my positions, now 6 lots (I was thinking to make it up on the way back down) Loss currently showing 4500. A few hours later NZ released its jobs numbers (major shock to the market because it was far worse than expected. I doubled up yet again to move the break even mark closer (now 12 lots) current losses showing 9k. At this point I had 22.5% tied to one trade (Brian being stupid).
A new release came out of Australia 2 days later regarding a great economic and jobs forecast that sent AUD/NZD further in the wrong direction. I was now sitting on a 12k loss little margin and panicking. I got frustrated and not being a disciplined trader said the hell with it, I was not going to get margin called. So I closed the position at a 14k Loss. (in retrospect had I held on to the position in 8 more days, AUD/NZD had retraced enough to where I would have only suffered a $2500.00 loss where I would have exited in a much fairer position).
To make a long story short starting with 4500.00 in early February using Wilders methods I parleyed the account to 16.5k. (I blew it getting ****y not following MM rules and trading out of sequence) at the time our MM was 3.5% per position and we were seeing close to 30-35% weekly gain on capital problem is we were not comfortable with the available margin when we had over 8 trades in play.
Since my tax time F*** U*, I have added 2500.00 to the 2500.00 I had remaining because the systems have been working and I will recoup my losses. At present after a 2 week sabbatical and getting over (me), trading for 3 weeks using Wilders systems have rebuilt the account to Over 8500. With Fridays present losses showing I’m still up over 30% on the account in 3 weeks.
It is very apparent to me that we follow the money management rules to the letter never more than 1.875% per position and I try not to exceed more than 20% of the account at any given time. When following these parameters you have the ability to pretty much ride out any storm.
When last week started (Sunday) my balance was $7,179.39 during the course of the trading week, I locked in over $1,000 in profits. When Friday hit and the Dow was tanking, I pulled all profits about 470.00 added to the gains made previously I�m up over $1,470.00. I�m sitting on over 1,100 in losses based on 1.875% money management rules. Even with large losses showing, I�m still up on the week, and up over 2k on a 5179.00 balance 3 weeks ago.
I enter trades using the SI, VS and RT Trade indicators, and exit at the RT levels (auto orders) or when I feel a trade is turning away from profit. I don�t count pips or use them to determine exits; I use no stop losses because I�ve determined they will usually get hit. Most trades fluctuate and may remain red for a few days to a week but they usually come around. If I�ve been sitting in a trade longer than I feel comfortable then I may exit it at BE.
My philosophy is 100 nickels is better than a dollar. Take profits as you see fit, let trades run their course. Over all I�m roughly Break Even on my account after 4 months. Had I not diverged from the systems I�d be well over 22k on a 5k investment. To me the systems work great, be patient and follow proper money management and take profits as you see fit.
Brian
Thanks, guys, for your comments! You are correct, when this recent sort of rally started, it was kind of a panic that I first felt - it could have been real money. But the calmer thoughts were like, well, this is now something that I’ll face anyway every now and then, and I’ll better take this as an example of an experience that must never make me loose my sleep.
So, stripping off the less essential from my previous post, I think that I can still hold on my conclusion to the situation: a new signal was triggered for EURCAD causing a hedging position which I don’t want to have, so I got rid of the hedge by closing EURUSD, which was the worst of the open positions. Hadn’t EURCAD been signalled, I would not have closed EURUSD. This is one rule that I want to stick to unless proven otherwise: no hedging positions, and if a hedge gets created by a new signal, then break the hedge by closing the worst position.
Please don’t worry, Dale. I will now not open a single position outside VS signals. (Well… I’m still not too consistent about timing, but I hope I’ll learn that as well.) The other indicators were left on the display from my earlier studies of different indicators and methods. I’ve just left the multi-stochastics indicator to see if there is any correlation with it and possible indications for optimal exit, which I haven’t seen any so far. I personally vote for those that think that the best trends are seen when in oversold or overbought areas, so I would not think about buying when stochastics - or RSI - enters an oversold area. It’s just too early. And possibly too late for selling.
Brian: Thanks for your “testimony”, strengthening for its part my decision that I will invest real money in this.
There are just a number of steps still to go. I want to have enough demo trading experience about trading with VS - in progress. I want to read Wilder’s book - I got an announcement just yesterday that the book is already in the customs. I want to open a live account, probably at Delta - need to go through all the bureaucracy there first, finding a certified translating agency to translate my documents and so on. I’m itching to get over all of these initiation rites.
chirules54: "… tired of paying $4.50 for gas …"
Multiply that by 2.5 and you get the price it costs in my country :eek:
J.
Here’s a summary of this past week and what I did wrong and right.
Right:
-Money Management Rules. Most trades 1.8% a few 3% nothing more than that.
-First part of the week I followed the systems well
Wrong:
-Panicked on bad trades and stop reversed only to have them go against me, again.
-To quick to find and place trades. I’ve been painting this week and we’re on a deadline so had to hurry. New tenants moving in tuesday.
-Stops not taking into account the spread.
-Above all not taking responsability for my screw ups.
-Taking some SI trades that I didn’t feel I understood clearly. Most SI trades are pretty clear to me. I think I’m trying to force them to be trades even though there’s no clear HP, LP, and breakout. Like when there’s a clear turn around but no HP or LP that’s been established and then broken.
Anyway, I think things will go more smooth next week. I’m live now baby!
VERY Good (Sunday) morning ALL!!!
It ‘makes my heart happy’ when I see new posts in the morning!!!
Brian (‘thegeek’):
Thank you for posting and above all thank you for ‘telling it like it is’. I cannot add anything more to your post!!! Suffice to say that we’ve all been there and done things that we KNOW we should not have done!!!
You know (I was saying this to someone the other day): one of the things that absolutely still fascinates me about this business is the fact that we ALL (especially in the beginning) react in EXACTLY THE SAME WAY!!! I was saying that I believe that if you took a million traders from all over the world and put them all into one large room and gave them exactly the same systems and trades they would ALL react in EXACTLY THE SAME WAY when a trade went against them OR when things were ‘looking good’. I mean: one would expect that given the fact that all of those traders would have come from different countries and continents, have different belief systems, have different home backgrounds, etc. etc. etc. that they would react differently from each other but I believe it would not be so!!! I think that no matter who you are and no matter where you come from what is at our ‘core’ is the same ‘across the board’ and I think that of those one million traders the one’s that learn to conquer or control the basic emotions of fear and greed are the ones that will eventually fall into the ‘only 10% of traders are successful’ statistic that is always bandied about. I don’t know of any other business on earth that can ‘equalize men’ the way THIS business CAN AND DOES!!!
kaalilaatikko:
Please dont’ think I was ‘dumping’ on you about the other indicators (well I was I suppose)!!! It’s just that they’ve never worked for me AND as I have said I am now sitting in a particularly bad trade for NO other reason other than that I allowed Stochastics reinforced my ‘belief’ that it was going to be a ‘stellar’ trade and it was all I needed to ignore any and all other signals coming from Wilder’s systems!!! Yes: at the beginning of the trade Wilder’s systems were ALSO confirming my ‘belief’ BUT when all of Wilder’s systems were SCREAMING at me to stop and reverse I ignored THEM because the message that Stochastics was giving me was ‘hold it will turn’ and the next day ‘hold it will turn’!!! RSI reacted quicker than Stochastics (for what it’s worth but I would STILL not base a trade on RSI either UNLESS is was POSSIBLY indicating divergence and EVEN THEN I’d look to the systems themselves for confirmation and NOT the other way around). Actually: if (when) you read the section on RSI in ‘the book’ it is interesting to note that NOWHERE does Wilder say to enter a trade when RSI crosses below 70 or above 30!!! Ever noticed that everyone??? Wilder only says to look for divergences or he says that support and resistance lines MAY show up on the RSI long before they will show up or become apparent on a bar chart and it can also be used to draw chart patterns and bar formations. Now compare this with any ‘online chart manual’ or ‘indicator help screen’ or whatever!!! They will ALL tell you to go short if RSI drops below 70 or go long if RSI moves above 30 OR wait until RSI crosses above or below 50!!! In the book he just says that RSI MAY be ‘indicative’ of market tops or bottoms or of support and resistance etc. etc. etc. NOWHERE does he say to ACTUALLY trade with it!!! See what I’m trying to say???
As far as your ‘hedges’ are concerned: for a time I also felt the same way i.e. there was no point in being ‘hedged’. I don’t believe this any more hence my earlier post of trading each pair in ‘isolation’.
I personally cannot wait for you to get your hands on ‘the book’ either as I think you will find that the content will appeal to your ‘highly technical nature’!!!
You will be glad to have opened an account at Delta because you will have access to the commodities and the all the US and EU equities and stock indices (because you are not a US resident). (Of course I’ll be glad too let me not tell a lie)!!!
As a matter of interest: why do you need to have your documents translated? Translated into what language? The obvious reason that I ask this question is simply because you’re posting in English and Delta’s documents are either in English or Bulgarian. (Unless of course you are translating your posts from Finnish to English before posting them in which case I apologise for asking the question).
(By the way: I tried to reply to your email yesterday but the message came back as ‘undeliverable’ so send me another one because I don’t understand why this happened i.e. I just ‘replied’ to your message so it’s not because I entered your email address incorrectly).
Randon:
I never recieved any SMS yesterday BUT I did get your email and I will make a point of being online at 17h00 (my time today) (I’ve even set my alarm)!!! Let’s ‘get together’ and ‘all will be revealed’!!! (You’re actually ‘getting in’ at JUST the right time I reckon i.e. loads of good opportunities coming this week I believe).
Edit:
I just had a thought: if it’s OK with Randon we could all ‘conference’ using YM this afternoon. I’ve never tried it but it looks like it could be fun. My YM identity is ‘fintransdbp’ and you would need to ‘invite’ me to ‘be your friend’ (or whatever the hell it is that they call it). I am on GMT+2 and will be online at 17h00 my time to help Randon. (It’s only really going to be benficial to you if you have ‘the book’ and at very least a demo account at Deltastock with my ‘Wilder indicators’ though so just bear this in mind unless of course you just want to ‘chat’).
By the way:
I have a ‘tip’ today!!!
When you’re looking for RTS trades you may want to look at the weekly charts first, find where ADX and ADXR are below 20 - 25 AND THEN change back to the daily charts and start looking for RTS trades when ADX and ADXR are below 20 - 25 there AS WELL. This appears to ensure that you’re not going to get into an RTS trade that is going to breakout AGAINST you. Just a thought.
Good day everyone,
My my, I go away for a bit and when i come back there’s a whole list of new ideas popping up. LRC’s!! Wow, never heard of them before I read it here. No, only joking Dale, , good to see you’re still doing well and keep thinking up new ideas.
As you know, I have been a bit busy with work but i should be home this week so can get back to the trading and get my account ar Delta opened up. Will talk to you soon.
Good week ahead to all.
Boca
Hello!
Excellent points! Just curious: you entered that trade because of wrong speculations, but are there now some reasons keeping you in that trade rather than just taking the loss, albeit a big one apparently?
I’ll take this as a comment from a pro and reconsider my ideas. There is another related issue I have been thinking about, but am not sure about it. I have collected 10 VS pairs I’m interested of, but my money management strategy does not allow having them all open at the same time. I’m quite positive that the best strategy is to exit before the next VS signal, so they all will not need to be open at the same time. But what should I do when there already are the maximum number of positions open, and yet another promising one opens? Should I close the worst one, ignore the new signal, or what? I also have some ideas about dividing a trade in several smaller positions and applying slightly different tactics to all of them, but that needs still some refinement.
Delta’s site says:
[I]We also require a recent proof of your residential address, issued within the last 6 months. An acceptable form of address proof is one of the following: …[/I]
[I]Certified English translation is required for all Non-English language documents.[/I]
So my address proof is non-English, and I need to have it translated to English by a certified translation agency. I’ll need to check next which qualifies for a “certified agency”, some of them seem to have ISO and EN certificates.
I hope that my posts are readable enough, though I don’t feel needing to write them in Finnish first, that would be too time consuming. Though sometimes I feel that a second writing arguably would make them better…
I re-emailed you. I have no idea for the reason of the problem. If it still fails, I’ll need to try to open another e-mail account.
J.
"I’ll take this as a comment from a pro and reconsider my ideas. There is another related issue I have been thinking about, but am not sure about it. I have collected 10 VS pairs I’m interested of, but my money management strategy does not allow having them all open at the same time. I’m quite positive that the best strategy is to exit before the next VS signal, so they all will not need to be open at the same time. But what should I do when there already are the maximum number of positions open, and yet another promising one opens? Should I close the worst one, ignore the new signal, or what? I also have some ideas about dividing a trade in several smaller positions and applying slightly different tactics to all of them, but that needs still some refinement. "
I would think you’d want to close out the BEST trade showing the most profit. That way you could let your others have time to show a profit.
Good (Monday) morning everyone!!!
Randon:
I hope things work out for you from today. We need to ‘get in touch’ again soon (like today again if possible) i.e. there are a few things we did not cover yesterday and I don’t want you to miss some ‘stellar’ trades because of it and there are a few ‘stellar’ trades setting up right now).
kaalilaatikko:
MAN you ask some difficult questions!!!
AUD/NZD!!!
Why am I still in that trade??? It’s a very good question. You’ve probably 'hit the nail on the ‘head’ i.e. I let the potential loss grow to a point where I just cannot bring myself to close it I suppose. I would say that is the MAIN reason for me still being the in the trade to be ‘brutally’ honest. Not good!!! Very bad actually!!! In ‘mitigation’ however I also don’t see any reason for exiting it at a loss NOW. I’ve been constantly reading all sorts of analyst comments and technical analysis for this pair and it would appear to me (based on that information) that the ‘top’ is near. I’ve also been able to trade ‘as if it were not there’ (thanks to sound money management) so even if I DO realise the loss neither I nor my clients will be ‘down’ and will as a matter of fact still be showing decent %tage gains ‘as if nothing had happened’. This as I said is ONLY due to sound money management. Had I been ‘up to my old antics’ of last year this position would have wiped me out!!! There a number of OTHER reasons why this trade is not concerning me TOO much. NOTHING goes STRAIGHT up and STRAIGHT down and anything that goes up that quickly also must correct at some point. The moment that other traders who are now probably sitting with HUGE profits on the move up start thinking to themselves ‘well it LOOKS like this thing is not going to go up any further so we’d better take our profits’ then the pair will correct and I’ll be only to happy to ‘prey’ on their ‘fear and greed’ to break even on the position!!! Fundamentally the pair is set to go higher in the long term but not before a correction and this is what I’m ‘holding out’ for. Let me say this though: no matter WHAT reasons I come up with for still being in this trade I SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN IN THIS TRADE IN THIS DIRECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE at least not after all of Wilder’s systems gave me a signal to stop and reverse!!! Yes: on this particular pair on this particular trade I would have probably had to stop and reverse about three times thus far incurring a loss each time but I don’t think the sum total of those losses would be anywhere near the current loss on the position AND it would not have tied up so much margin for so long AND I would ALSO not have been paying interest every day!!! The ‘long and short of it’ is this: even although I’m sure that I’ll either break even or make a small profit on this position it is NOT something I’ll ever repeat again nor be proud of doing (things like this make me feel that I’ve let myself AND everyone else here on the forum down because on this position I’ve not ‘practiced what I preach’). There is a very good and hard lesson here. NEVER base trades on what you 'feel or ‘think’. ‘Feeling’ and ‘thinking’ are very different from having an ‘opinion based on some or the other factual information’. I think (hope) that ‘clear it up’ for you!!!
With the VS I agree with Randon to be honest i.e. close the VS trades that are in a profit if other good opportunities arise (IF you’re not going to ‘follow the trades through’). But also let me qualify this statement by saying that this should ONLY be applied to the VS because of its design. ‘Conventional wisdom’ says to ‘cut your losses and let your winners run’!!! (Pretty rich coming from me right now huh)!!!
There is nothing wrong at all with your posts in English (very good actually). I just was not aware of what the problem might be with Delta (until now of course).
Hi Dale and co
Just dropping in to say I am still following your thread and would like to offer another thank you to you all for your ongoing contributions here. I continue to learn loads from your conversations even through I don’t know the details of the indiviual systems. I am still tempted to follow these systems but still need to learn more before I think I am ready to truly understand them.
Update on my trading I opened a live account with Oanda with $485 and current NAV is $610 after 5 weeks trading. So not bad I guess but I still do not feel comfortable that I have any ‘working system’ but the point is to learn and I think I am doing that. To be honest a lot of the time I simply follow the signals that are provided my Oanda.
I was also short the AUD/NZD but got SL out at 1.24 one of my worst trades yet!! :mad: I hope it turns for you.
I am currently short USD/ZAR @ 7.80 (still like this pair) and getting burned as it has just bust through 8. I am holding till the interest rate announcement tomorrow and if that does not help turn it back down I am out. Go agrresive Tito please. 150bps would be great 4 me!
More general news I am coming back to SA for good on the 24th of July, fighting my way through the wave of emmigrants and negative sentiment to get back in. Tough decision to make coming home but I haven’t found a better place yet.
Keep well
Brendon
Gentlemen,
It seems that you’ve been quite correct about the recent quick movements and how they tend to correct. Since that I haven’t closed nor opened any positions, but just continued my studies about VS. I discovered Delta’s API, and it was relatively easy to use for getting data for the pairs they offer. And what made me even happier, I was able to automate data retrieval, so I can now get all the data for all my VS pairs in a couple of seconds.
I scanned all the new pairs and included the following to my portfolio:
EUR/NOK, parameters 3.0/13
GBP/NOK, 3.0/13
NZD/CHF, 2.7/6
USD/NOK, 2.9/14
USD/RON, 2.6/15
USD/RUB, 2.8/12
USD/SEK, 2.8/14
An interesting collection with lots of volatility. Some remarks about some pairs I accepted and rejected:
EUR/NOK
Great peaks, great drawdowns, without SLs or TPs almost a sure loss. However, the drawdowns are not overweighing the peaks, and with careful exiting this might give good yields.
NZD/CHF 2.7 6
This one I might follow almost exactly from signal to signal, except TPs at 1000p, which are rare. Steady, small profit.
USD/RON 2.6 15
Little data available, but seems like a promising pair. 1 year, 7 trades,
3 of which resulted above +1000, and 4 peaked over 1000p. Total over 5000 pips. Let’s give this a try.
USD/RUB 2.8 12
Little data available, a bit like GBBNOK. Looks promising though.
EUR/RON
Little data available. Comparable behaviour to EUR/NOK. Not convincing enough.
EUR/ZAR 2.9 14
USD/ZAR 3.0 12
Huge peaks. Correspondingly huge drawdowns, for which reason I ignore these ones.
GBP/ZAR 3.0 7
Otherwise like GBPNOK, but much bigger drawdowns, for which reason I ignore this one.
USD/NOK 2.9 14
USD/SEK 2.8 14
Quite like GBP/NOK. USD/SEK seems to trend quite long, so a trailing SL might be much better than TP. Not for me right now.
After seeing this kind of a set of pairs, I also had another look with fresh eyes on GBP/JPY, which I rejected a while ago. It resembled a lot at least the ZAR pairs, and I still view it too risky at least for my small experience.
I also got an idea for filtering the trades a bit. I have read about Ingot’s rainbows elsewhere here in Babypips, and they simply are a big set of MAs stacked in the chart. It seems for me like it would be much more probable to enter a big trend when the long MAs are nicely aligned and trending and the signal is to the same direction (and I don’t think this would be in contradiction with Ingot’s ideas). On the other hand, if you trade against this long-term MA trend, the candles seem to have much more unpredictable behaviour and faster moves back and forth. I have no finer data to back this up, but I think I’ll try to enter only those trades that follow a nice long-term MA trend.
If I use this filtering together with lowering my trade size a bit from what I so far have calculated, I might able to define such money management rules where I would not need to restrict the maximum number of open positions, at least most of the time.
And having this many pairs to follow, there should be at least a couple of new signals every week on the average to analyse and select. 3 so far in this month.
Edit: I started to calculate money management for the different pairs, and it has clearly shown me that all pips are indeed not created equal. I initially thought to scale the pairs so that the price of a pip would be roughly the same for all pairs. The pairs in my first set just happened to match this nicely. In this perspective my comment about “huge pip differences” might hold. But I came to a conclusion that it is better to scale the size of the trade and let the pip price vary.
J.
Hi,
I’ve been comparing Metatrader indicators for ADX/ADXR against the calculations in the book and I haven’t been able to find any that give the same results as the book.
I disconnected from the Internet, deleted the history for 1 pair that I dont follow, USDNOK, and then imported the data from the book. Note that I just set the open each day to the same as the high as the open isnt used in the calculation. I then added the indicators as shown in the attachment. If you compare with the book you’ll see the first ADX(14) isnt even within a country mile of the book. The second WildersDMI does come closer in shape, but it still isnt correct against the book eg Day 20 the book shows +DI at 41, the indicator has it at around 70. Also how can it be calculating ADXR before Day 28?
Does anyone know of any other ADX/ADXR indicators for Metatrader that I can test this way?
Thanks
Hello all,
Just finished Mr. Wilder’s book, and am slowly making my way through this fantastic thread. (Post #121 of 450+!!)
I have thought about creating excel spreadsheets to mimic Wilder’s Daily Worksheets. But after reading a few posts referring to a spreadsheet already posted I figured I should ask if someone has already completed this.
Did I miss the attachement in the first 121 posts, or am I just misunderstanding the posts?
This thread is a fanstastic resource for us ‘newbies’ and my thanks go to the man himself “Dpaterso” for making such a resource available!
Hopefully, soon I will be able to contribute some useful information to this thread! Until then, I will quietly cower in the corner and let the thread vetrens do their business!!! LOL
Regards
M.
Hello Sirkeen,
Welcome to the thread. I’m sure you’ll enjoy being onboard.
Regarding the systems and the excel forms, I dont think any were posted on the site but some of the guys did manage to develop them. I myself, was using the Volatility system just by using the worksheet provided in the book. I am no excel genius, but I will take a look and see what I still have.
Dale has coded indicators for some of the systems for Delta and GCI brokers but he will only submit these to you if you open an account at one of these brokers. All of this is very fair, considering all the hard work and effort he has put into it.
Having said all that, ADX and PSAR are available on most broker platforms so if you wanted to follow these systems, you can use these and just apply the knowledge that you learnt in Wilders book.
Hope this post helps you out. Feels good to post again, I haven’t done that for a while. 
Dale,
Are you still alive? Not seen you around for a while, Hope all is ok and you haven’t over done it on the spicy rum.
Best Regards
Boca
Good (Friday) morning all!!!
Great posts (I do ‘look in’ every day of course).
brendonvdh:
Nice to hear from you again. Also glad you’re ‘coming home’ (maybe we can get together sometime and ‘compare notes’). My advice as always: ‘BUY THE BOOK’!!! As I’ve said before: if you take the time to study its even ‘nuance’ it will pay for itself in the first trade I promise you that!!! Also: while I’m really happy for you that you are ‘up’ you really do need to be sure that you have a ‘reason’ for being ‘up’ i.e. there is nothing worse than making a profit but not knowing for sure whether or not it’s ‘repeatable’ (which I suppose is the same as ‘consistent’).
kaalilaatikko:
MAN you like analysis and statistics!!! I can neither agree nor disagree with you on anything you’ve posted because I have not done the ‘in depth statistical analysis’ that you have done. One thing though: don’t get TOO ‘stuck’ on the VS i.e. there ARE other systems in the book which are just as good.
On the other hand one thing that may be of interest to you is this: Nick (chirules54) and I were having a discussion the other day and between us we came up with an ‘addition’ to the VS which MAY prevent the huge (inevitable) drawdowns.
Let me explain:
One thing that we all tend to overlook is the fact that ALL of Wilder’s trading systems (with the exception of the RTS in ‘Reaction Mode’ and the TBPS) are breakout systems. Now: the VS gives you a signal when a breakout occurs BUT once you’re in the trade you’re basically waiting for a breakout in the opposite direction to stop and reverse. Now I don’t know what you people thingk BUT from my experience you don’t get a breakout in one direction and then immediately thereafter get a breakout in the opposite direction i.e. there is normally always a lengthy period of consolidation at the end of a trend and it’s during this period of consolidation where I (we) believe your profits start to get ‘eaten away’ i.e. if the price starts to trend SLOWLY in the opposite direction but not enough to give you a stop and reverse signal then slowly but surely your profits get ‘eaten away’. So: the ‘plan’ is to add another level to the VS and this level is calculated using exactly the same formula EXCEPT that the ‘constant’ is smaller. This level is then used as a STOP or TP and NOT as a stop and reverse. I’m currently adding this to my VS indicator at Delta (and should finish today) so I’m keen to see if this manages to ‘lock in’ profits earlier.
midulster:
Again: sorry I can’t help you with your problem. I have had a look at the MT4 that I have installed for demo and testing purposes (Alpari) and the ADX there also looks NOTHING like EITHER Delta’s or GCI’s. I also have a difference between Delta’s ADX and GCI’s ADX but I know the REASON for the differences is the different timezones and prices (price movements between brokers are NEVER EXACT).
sirkeen:
Welcome and I hope that ‘the book’ brings you much success. Good on you for ‘springing’ the cash to buy it. You won’t be sorry.
There is no need to ‘cower in the corner’. Feel free to post and ask questions if you have them (although of course it DOES make it a LOT easier to assist if you already have at least a basic knowledge and understanding of the systems).
Are you trading live and do you have a broker?
The only spreadsheets that I have available are for the SIS (the Swing Index System) (and I think those are the ones that are referred to earlier on in the thread i.e. they were removed at the suggestion of one or two subscribers to the thread i.e. unfair to those of us who have purchased the book to make the systems freely available to all and sundry and not to mention the copyright issue) and I’ll gladly send you one or two if you drop me an email ([email protected]). I know that ‘midulster’ (above) has spreasheets for calculating the ADX/ADXR but you’d need to contact him for those. I must just tell you this though: using the spreadsheets as a ‘learning tool’ is a ‘must’ I reckon but I know from experience that trying to trade with them can be a REAL ‘pain in the neck’ purely because of the time it takes to maintain them on a daily basis. Just bear this in mind and DON’T give up on these systems because of this (this is what I did and it cost me a lot of money and wasted a lot of time)!!!
Edit:
Heeey Boca!!! Welcome back. Me: I’m good. Just working on the VS indicator and one or two other little ‘items’ is all.
Hello Dale,
Yes, is good to be back.
I emailed my details and completed application to Delta yesterday so I am hoping to hear back from them soon enough. So far, no reply. I remember you saying it could take a while.
Best Regards
Boca
Hello again,
Boca:
They normally take no longer than a day to respond so if they’ve not contacted you within 24 hours then let me know. Well done.
To all my ‘clients’:
I’ve sent updated indicators for Deltastock to your email addresses so please check your email. The update includes the new VS STOP as described in my previous post. Have a look and let me know if you think it has merit.