Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

AAARRRGGGG!!!

  What a WEEK! OH, what a week! You know that when I was demo trading I used to tell my wife: "The cool thing about this business is that you can make money anywhere, so while we're on vacation I can still be making money, just bring my laptop and trade in the hotel or on the beach" EF THAT! When I go on vacation I'm going to relax! 

Anyways for those that don’t know this is was my first week trading live. And the story goes…So sunday night comes and I am EXITED! Finally after all the long months of learning and trading fake money the time had arrived. Computer, check, account funded, check, exited, OH YEAH, check. Systems a go. I set my trades, yippy time to become a gazillionaire! My first trade was placed and boy was it a great one, not . I set up the rest of my trades and monitored them every few hours through the night. My first trade decided to take a dive early on down to -5%. I immediately grabbed my book “trading in the zone” for moral support and stuck it out.And it reversed to a measely 1% profit. After all how the hell am I gonna become a gazzillionaire with only 1% profit! Later I realized that I’d entered short at the bottom of the wave. It hit HBOP and swung between there and S1 the whole week. So I kept it all week each time thinking as it got to zero that it would go on to big fat profits. Stupid me I had a few times that I could have closed out at 1% profit on it but I held on for more(greed).

Monday I was introduced to my other b*tch of a position, damn thing would go into huge negative then to zero, I held this one too throughout the week. Most of my positions were in the red about -7% total. Tuesday, about damn time I see some nice green, closed out 2%. Wednesday, I close out 4%,(still have those two loosing trades , man I wish I’d taken the1% on each). Thursday (midday) I was up 5%. Duh duh dah(erie music in background), here is where things started to go down hill and in nerd dialect I get wtfpwned!

I looked at each trade and said to myself heck if I just add a few more positions and each one goes to XX level I’d make another 15%(greed), pretty smart idea right, WRONG! Half of those positions were USD/XXX or XXX/USD, and for those of you that weren’t trading thurs-fri the USD had a HUGE rally, well huge cause I had doubled a few of my USD positions. EUR/USD sunk like a rock and as it did my heart started beating harder, the palms of my hands started to sweat, my face got red, AND I PANICKED(FEAR)! I was tripled up on EUR/USD boy did that hurt! So 5 minutes later and MINUS 10% realized loss, mostly EUR/USD, PLUS -8% unrealized loss, I was broken, bah, it wasn’t that bad, I’m just exagerating, kinda. Oh, and by the way my two pet money sucking trades in NZD from monday and tuesday decided to flare up as the USD soared to new gut wrenching heights and go from -2% to -6%.

So I got up, walked away in disgust, and layed in bed for awhile staring at the ceiling thinking about what I’d done wrong, by this time I think it was around 4 am. I started going over the week and what had worked and what had not. During the week I’ve not had a single trade no matter how bad that didn’t eventually come back for a 1% or more profit. I’d had some nice rational trades triggered during the rally that I’d closed in panic, EUR/USD was now at a very very low support level, and I needed to do damage control, not revenge. So I got up went back to the computer and re-setup my trades(all within MM rules and according to my system). All with reasonable targets. I then closed out my deltastock platform and went to sleep for 4 hours. I didn’t sleep much this week. I got up this morning and 80% of my trade targets had been hit I made my money back minus my gains for the week and my NZD trades were back to there regular -2% and I closed them out.

After all was said and done I ended up with a 2 % gain for the week. I made alot of mistakes but they could have been much much worse if I’d let them get to that point. I LOVE the RT system. It’s so reliable. Out of my 20 someodd trades, every single RTS trade showed profit of 1%+ at one point or another. As I was lying there thinking after all the mess. I thought to myself how different the week would have ended if I’d not bent MM rules thurs-fri and set my profit target at 1% if my S1/B1 were not hit during the night, or at break even if the trade went against me, shoot, even those trades that went against me, only 2, both showed 1% gains at times. I feel like I had a great week. I learned a ton and I’m sure its only gonna get better. I know there will be times when the SHTF but it’s how you handle it that matters and sticking to your trading plan.

P.S. Dale, I got the new indicators. Thanks!

Good (Saturday) morning all!!!

WOW!!! I’m relieved!!! When I first saw that you’d posted Randon my heart ‘sank’ because I thought you were goint to post what a BAD week you’d had and my credibility would have gone ‘for a loop’!!! I’m really glad that you’re happy with your gains!!!

Now following ON from Randon’s post:

I’ve not had a great two weeks at all. While I’m still ‘up’ on the month I’m nowhere NEAR the huge %tage gains that I’ve been making since February this year. Why? Because it’s REAL easy to get ‘over confident’ and start ‘cutting corners’.

For the past two weeks or so I’ve just been using ONLY the RTS (my version with the additional levels which as I’ve noted before are Pivot Points / Pivot Levels). Because of the ‘fantasmagorical’ results I’d been having up until the beginning of June I figured that the RTS was the ‘b all and end all’ of the systems. Well: it MAY be BUT ONLY if you follow it correctly!!! What I started doing was instead of religiously drawing up my ADX/ADXR work sheet every night I started to ‘relax’ a bit and instead of basing my RTS entries on the values of ADX/ADXR I just started placing orders at any and all RTS levels (Pivot Points / Levels) when the price was nearing those levels ASSUMING that once the levels had been hit and the orders executed the price would then just retrace (as it apparantely had always done), hit the B1 or S1 target, and that would be that. Well: not so. To make matters worse every time a target was NOT hit and the price continued to go against me I’d add another lot to the position and so on and so forth. Needless to say this has the obvious benefit of increasing profits drastically BUT of course also compounds losses if the price continues to go against you!!! I’ve now been ‘chastised’ in a BIG way by my business partner who actually made the statement: ‘You’ve not been trading for the past two weeks the same way that you’ve been trading up until the end of May’!!! I needed to hear it and it’s true!!! I never even realised it until he made this statement!!! In essence what I’ve been doing is placing orders most times against the obvious trend AND on pairs that are INDEED TRENDING which is a recipe for disaster with the RTS!!! So: the obvious result is that you end up in positions (multiple positions on the same pairs mind you) and have to either wait for a trend reversal to come OR ‘hope’ that there is correction during the trend and that correction must be of a great enough magnitude to hit your TP!!! Not ideal by any stretch of the imagination!!! The fact that the word ‘hope’ has ‘crept into my vocabulary’ says it all!!!

NOW:

While I’m confident that I will indeed be able to close out all my positions either at BE or at a small profit my trading for the past two weeks has done nothing other than tie up margin for no good reason and of course diminsh my potential gains for the month.

The lesson to be learned is this:

It’s REAL easy once you’re actually making good money to become complacent and ‘cut corners’ THINKING (once again) that you can do no wrong!!! In all fairness: yes it IS time consuming to compile the ADX/ADXR work sheet every night ESPECIALLY at 00h00 / 01h00 in the morning and THEN still place the orders and move TP’s and stuff BUT it’s unfortuanate i.e. IT JUST HAS TO BE DONE!!! Yes: I’m tired of being tired all of the time BUT there is just no room for shortcuts. Whether or not it’s sustainable to be able to live like this for years and years I’m not sure (and to be honest I doubt it very much). For now: I just have to go back to compiling the work sheet every night and try to find a way of speeding up the capture of the ADX/ADXR values.

One thing all of this has just served to confirm YET AGAIN: sound money management is ‘key’!!! Without it: I’d be in REAL big trouble and EXTREMELY unpopular with my family and clients I assure you!!!

Remember this: I believe that this is the ONLY business where being successful can actually contribute to your eventual downfall!!! Strange statement to make??? The point is this: no matter HOW well you’re doing NEVER let your guard down!!! Before you know it you’ll be doing things that you don’t even REALISE you are doing. If you’re ‘lucky’ enough to ‘nip it in the bud’ before things get out of hand and you end up wiping out your account then good and well. However: it’s not a ‘chance’ that should be taken.

By the way:

I’ve been looking at the RTS in ‘the book’ again this morning (doesn’t hurt now and then to have a ‘refresher’) to find an answer to the ‘popular’ question as to whether or not the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing does in fact matter.

Personally: I think it does indeed make a difference.

The reason that there is ‘confusion’ and ‘consternation’ between us regarding the sequencing is because when looking at a chart you look for ‘three days up and two days down’ on the chart and on NO chart (or very few anyway) does this appear ‘to the naked eye’. HOWEVER (and I think I’ve touched on this before but also chose to sort of ‘ignore it’): JUST BECAUSE you can’t see this ‘phenomemon’ on a chart DOES NOT MEAN that it’s not happening. Why? Because when you’re looking at a chart you’re seeing the candlesticks or bars after the close. So even although you may NOT see three bull candlesticks or bars and then two bear candlesticks or bars this does NOT mean that the phenomenon does not exist and the sequencing no longer applies. The point is that EVEN IF (for example) you have TEN bull bars in succession this does NOT mean that during the rally that you’re seeing in front of you that B1 and S1 were not in fact hit during that rally EVEN ALTHOUGH you can’t see the see the phenomenon as plainly as three bull candlesticks or bars and then two bear candlesticks or bars!!! Ignoring this phenomenon totally (as I know I have been doing) makes the difference as to whether you end up buying or selling TWICE (at very least) (thus having multiple positions open on a single instrument or pair) in order to ensure that when your TP is hit you make a profit and it also appears that it ensures to a certain degree that you don’t TP prematurely. Read carefully what actions are supposed to be performed on which days i.e. when to close out a long position and when to close out a short position and when to stop and reverse.

Again: one of those (basic) things that it would appear becomes easy to overlook or simply forget about when you think you’re ‘old hat’ at these systems!!!

Hi,

I’m using Metatrader on Alpari and am just starting demoing the SIS and RTS. Never having been a fan of hard work (unlike ‘the man’ whose dedication to do all this without IT is amazing) I knew I’d probably give up collecting the ADX/ADXR values each night so I’ve been trying to semi-automate the process. I also don’t believe that either of the 2 ADX indicators I’ve used in Metatrader are calculating correctly so I wanted to calculate the results myself.

First step was to get out the OHLC for the 23 forex pairs I’m trying to follow, so I’ve written an Expert Advisor that can be attached to any chart and on the arrival of the next tick it writes the OHLC and the ATR(14) as calculated by Metatrader for the 23 pairs into the Experts log (I then stop the EA so I don’t end up with a HUGE log file with repeats of the same data). The log is just a simple text file that after a 10 second clean up can be opened in Excel. I then copy and paste from this into my main ADX spreadsheet which has a couple of macros to copy paste the data into a worksheet for each pair and sort the resulting ADX/ADXR values into descending order on one worksheet. So I now have ordered ADX/ADXR values in under 3 minutes.

I’ve attached the EA for anyone who wants it (though note it only works when the market is open ie not at the weekends). Though as Dale has said before I’m not posting the spreadsheet here because it does contain information not freely available in the public domain, especially if the ADX indicators for Metatrader ARE wrong. If you have the book I’d be happy to email you the spreadsheet and especially if you are prepared to dig into its calculations and confirm that they are doing what the book says. This is my concern, that EVEN THOUGH my spreadsheet produces the SAME RESULT AS THE BOOK, it is producing SIGNIFICANTLY different results than any other source of ADX values. And though it would be nice to think that I’m right and the rest of the world is wrong that hasn’t been the case in my life so far, so any help in verifying my work to date would be greatly appreciated.

Midulster-

Wow. I can’t tell you how much that will help. Calculating all the ADX values by hand takes forever. To save time I’ve been placing trades right then and their whenever I see an ADX low enough for RTS.

Dale,

This business is definately work. I’m hoping that with time it will get easier on my health. I don’t think I’ve ever had a work week where I worked as hard as I did last week or as long. I was on the clock 24/7. I think it was mostly because I’m so new and haven’t gained your level of confindence in the systems. My losses were completely due to the fact that I deviated from the system and MM rules. My responsability.

One thing I noticed is that monitorying my trades continuously did ALOT more harm than good. And by monitorying continuously I mean being glued to the platform 24/7 minus 2-4 hour stints to sleep. If I hadn’t been there the whole time I wouldn’t have added to EUR/USD and when I got up in the morning it had retraced back to B2. So it wouldn’t be showing such a huge loss. Or if I hadn’t added to it I wouldn’t have panicked and closed it out.

Can’t wait for next week!
:smiley:

Hey ‘midulster’,

And though it would be nice to think that I’m right and the rest of the world is wrong that hasn’t been the case in my life so far …

ROFLMAO!!!

I know the feeling well!!!

I’ve thought about getting the ADX/ADXR values from the platforms by exporting the data and then reading it into an application that I could write that would calculate the ADX/ADXR values and print a report BUT the exporting of the data ITSELF would take longer than it’s taking me to capture these values manually (both my platforms work differently to MT4 when it comes to data files i.e. MT4 downloads the data into seperate files for each pair the moment you open the chart and that data remains on your disk drive until you manually delete it whereas with Delta’s platform at no given time will I have a ‘set’ of data for all the instruments because I constantly delete the cache to ensure the integrity of what’s being displayed in front of me and GCI’s platform does not store any data whatsoever). There is software available from the company that actually developed Delta’s charting package (Delta’s charting package is actually external to the platform i.e. it’s ‘called’ from the platform itself) that SHOULD allow you to ‘get’ the data directly from Delta and then allow you to ‘feed’ the data into any of your indicators on a sort of ‘batch’ basis but there is no demo available, it ain’t cheap, and I’ve tried on more than one occasion to contact them to no avail (the developers of the charting package NOT Delta) and I’m a bit loathe to pay money to people who won’t even email be back!!! For now it’s ‘little sleep’ again for me!!!

Hi Randon (we were obviously ‘overtyping’ each other),

I also know THAT feeling well i.e. watching the platform 24/7 and being ‘tempted’ although I think I HAVE at least learned to do NOTHING other than just watch!!!

Further to what I said about the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing:

I thought I’d just share this with you all:

The reason that I’m convinced that the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing has merit is BECAUSE with me trading the way I’ve been trading the past two weeks I have INDEED noticed that let’s say the price of an instrument or pair is going in the direction of B1 (for example) I’d then be placing an order to buy at B1. However: at the same time I’ve now and then taken a sort of ‘cursory’ look at the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing and many times I have INDEED noticed that when the buy order (in this example) is executed on what SHOULD / COULD be an ‘O’ or an ‘S’ day the price has continued to move against me for yet another day (sometimes longer) before turning. As stated previously: I’ve just been adding to the position every time this has happened i.e. adding at B1 the next day (in this example) BUT even with having doing that you’d STILL be better off with a single position than with a double position when your TP is hit i.e. more profitable with a SINGLE position BUT a single position taken on the ‘right’ day’ at the ‘right’ price as opposed to having a DOUBLE position that TP’s early.

The BIGGEST problem from what I can see is where to START the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing. The example in ‘the book’ is a LOT clearer than you normally find in practice as you’ve all no doubt noticed. One idea that comes to mind is to AT FIRST place an order on ANY given day and depending of which order gets hit that day you start your ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing from there e.g. if your buy order gets hit then that is designated a ‘B’ day and from thereon you keep the sequence as per ‘the book’. Of course there is also the LRC method as I described in a previous post.

Aside from ANYTHING else the absolute ‘key’ here (with the RTS) is the ADX/ADXR values (which I’ve been largely discounting for the past two weeks as previously noted).

Good (Sunday) morning everyone!!!

Well I’ve FINALLY completed my ADX/ADXR work sheet (it ONLY took about TWO HOURS this morning which is FINE on a Sunday morning BUT it’s a whole different story at 01h00)!!!

In addition to completing the work sheet I also spent some time analysing the charts and the Wilder indicators and I’ve arrived at some new conclusions.

First: at some point I indicated that using the LRC’s to determine the prevailing trend and only taking trades in that direction was ‘the way to go’. I’ve changed my mind about this. The LRC’s are MUCH too slow to react or indicate a change in the direction of the trend. By the time they’ve indicated a change in direction you’ve already missed some MONSTER trades. This is particularly true of the SIS. I still believe that using the LRC’s in conjunction with the RTS to indicate where to place your orders is ‘on the money’ but they are useless when it comes to indicating which trades you should be taking.

Second: I’ve added Bill Williams’ Awesome Oscillator and Acceleration Deceleration Oscillator to the charts.

NOW: DON’T REMIND ME THAT I SAID I’D NEVER HAVE ANTHING ELSE OTHER THAN ‘WILDER’ ON MY CHARTS!!! I KNOW I SAID THAT!!! But let’s not forget that Bill Williams is also one of the ‘old timers’ in this business and developed the ‘Profitunity Trading System’ or ‘Chaos Theory’ which I also know to be a good trading system from having used it before. The only reason I STOPPED using his ‘stuff’ was because at one stage I requested some input from him and his ‘cronies’ and they pretty much just ‘fobbed me off’ which left a very bad ‘taste in my mouth’. However: this of course does not change the fact that he ALSO INDEED ‘knows what he’s talking about’ so if using his ‘stuff’ is going to add some extra ‘insurance’ to the trades then it may be time for me to put my personal feelings aside I think)!!!

Now for those of you who are not familiar with Bill Williams’ ‘stuff’ then here are two links that will explain the Awesome Oscillator (or ‘AO’ as it’s commonly known) and the Accelerator Decelerator Oscillator (or ‘AC’ as it’s commonly known):

Chaos Theory: Awesome Oscillator (AO)
Chaos Theory: Acceleration / Deceleration Oscillator (AC)

If you’re interested the entire ‘Profitunity Trading System’ is OUTLINED on this thread:

Table of content

(I know that he is aware that the system is OUTLINED at Alpari so I’m just assuming that it’s in the public domain).

Take a look at it i.e. it’s not a bad system at all.

HOWEVER: my intention is NOT to detract from the sheer genius of ‘the old man’ so please don’t ask me anything about Bill Williams’ trading system(s) (well at least not on THIS thread). What I’m seeing is that the AO and PARTICULARLY the AC react VERY MUCH quicker to a change in trend direction than EVEN the +DI and -DI lines of the ADX. So I’m suggesting here that you would only take long trades or short trades based on what either (or both) the AO and / or the AC are indicating. The reason that it’s important to determine the general direction of price PARTICULARLY with the RTS is because the very LAST thing you need nor want is to go short as per the RTS and the instrument or pair breaks out and starts trending long against you (which to be honest is pretty much the reason that I’m sitting on some ‘less that stellar’ positions at the moment). Take a look and let me know what you think. I’m NOT saying to base trades on the AO and / or the AC but I AM saying to ‘note’ them for added ‘insurance’. Yes: they (like anything else) CAN be wrong (my AUD/NZD position is ‘living proof’ of this fact) BUT let me say that they’re more ‘right’ than ‘wrong’. I’m also not advocating that you use the AO and / or the AC to STAY in positions either I’m advocating that they JUST be used for ‘insurance’ upon placing an order and / or opening a position.

That said: let’s ALL have a better trading week than last week!!!

Dale:

I admire your energy and creativity - I don’t think I can keep up!

Would you mind emailing me through your latest set of ADX/ADXR values so I can compare them with mine?

Also randont I think I’ve changed my profile settings to let people get hold of my email address but if I haven’t succeeded its derekjohnston at yahoo dot com. Send me a message and I’ll send my spreadsheet through to you if you want it. Also I’d really like to see the values you’re getting for ADX (any day/days from the last few weeks is fine) to see if I am getting anywhere near to anyone else.

Off to deliver father’s day gifts now - trying to be back for the open.

All the best for this week.

Regards

Derek

Yess! “The book” is in my hands. My initial feelings: I’ve been on the right track in using VS. And there indeed is a lot of stuff to study and lots of food for thoughts. Thanks, Dale, for the bullseye recommendation! I need to have a deep look at all of the indicators and systems. Maybe ADX/ADXR could be a candidate for VS exits somehow? There have been some good ideas in the earlier posts as well. Different C in the end - good idea, but something is needed to determine when the trend turns - ADX/ADXR again perhaps? Or AO, AC perhaps?

Dale:

“I’ve thought about getting the ADX/ADXR values from the platforms by exporting the data and then reading it into an application that I could write that would calculate the ADX/ADXR values and print a report BUT the exporting of the data ITSELF would take longer than it’s taking me to capture these values manually”

“Well I’ve FINALLY completed my ADX/ADXR work sheet (it ONLY took about TWO HOURS this morning which is FINE on a Sunday morning BUT it’s a whole different story at 01h00)!!!”

I think it does not need to be this hard. I already have practiced a bit with Delta’s API, and it was really quick to programmatically download data, at least when reading only the daily values. My program now downloads the full daily data for 16 pairs in just a few seconds, that is since 2004 for most of them. And the calculations for the full data take roughly the same. As this was this quick, I haven’t bothered to optimise the program e.g. by just downloading the last day and adding it on top of the old data. I am going to study ADX/ADXR a bit more, and if I find it play the same tune with VS, I may go through the trouble and integrate it in my code. I definitely won’t want to spend that much time daily doing it by hand. Another thing that I immediately noticed in Wilder’s book is that everything can be apparently based on tabular data, graphs are not necessary. This makes it relatively easy to program whatever else I want to experiment there. You were correct about that again in one of your posts, Dale!

I initially noticed the same long data downloading time with MT4, but then I also noticed that MT4 seemed to automatically cache the daily data, I just needed to open the history tool and refresh the data on the display for the latest bar for each of the pairs. That was just a matter of a couple of clicks for each pair, but manual anyway. Then I tried Delta’s API with far more pairs and all data downloadable at once. Maybe this level of automation could be possible with MT4 as well, I haven’t tried, as I got further with Delta first - and the number of pairs is bigger there.

I’m a programmer by profession, having done that for years, but this is the first time I am doing these kinds of programming excercises just for myself and seeing the ��s rather clearly in my eyes. Fun! Cool! Fascinating! At least for me.

midulster:

I may be interested of looking at your spreadsheets. As commented above, I may fall in writing some code for calculating ADX/ADXR on a rainy day. It would then be good for cross-checking, I might find something in either my or your calculations. I’ll keep your work in mind. If I get this done, I’ll try to remember to make the program to output also plain ADX/ADXR in CSV for Excel, so that also somebody else could have use of it. Your 3 minutes is much better than Dale’s 2 hours, but I want a few seconds at maximum. But that would be based on data from Delta then.

randont / “The Nightmare Before Christmas”:

Thanks for another war story! I really appreciate people telling their downs, they often teach you much more than the ups. When I get live one day, I must keep in mind that I’ve been warned a number of times how to screw up.

J.

Hello again,

I thought I’d attach a .pdf of my Daily ADX ADXR Work Sheet here for everyone to see (and it now notes the AO and AC). You’ll notice that for the AO and the AC I have two columns i.e. ‘previous’ and ‘current’. The reason for this is that (what a lot of people do NOT realise with these indicators) if the current candlestick or bar has NOT YET CLOSED the color of the AO and AC can change ‘on the fly’. What I’m reasoning is that if you get three out of four readings (four out of four obviously being the ideal) that concur with the signal that you’re being given by Wilder’s systems then you’re good to go!!! ‘Valid’ entries are highlighted in blue.

Take a look. Tell me what you think.

(By the way: AO and AC are NOT part of Delta’s standard indicators but they can be found under MY Delta indicators under the subsection ‘Williams’ for those of you who have them i.e. ‘self trade clients’).

Daily ADX ADXR 15062008 1845.pdf (14.9 KB)

Hello AGAIN today!!!

kaalilaatikko:

I really happy for you now that you’ve finally got the book. Like I said: judging by your posts I just KNOW that it’s the kind of thing that will interest you.

I agree with what you’re saying about learning from the BAD experiences and I must say that is what makes this thread so great i.e. none of us are ashamed to share our good AND bad (I’ve noticed that with so many other threads not only here but on other sites as well that when things are going well MAN is there activity but the moment things start going ‘pearshaped’ the threads become decidedly quiet)!!!

Now it’s funny that you bring up the VS tonight as I’ve just prepared a chart showing what I meant by having a ‘stop level’ as well. I’ve attached a chart of GBP/JPY daily (which by the way it would sure look like a long VS trade is ‘in the making’). Let’s say that the price closes above the ‘standard’ VS SAR tomorrow. You’d then switch the indicator (once you’re in the trade) to ‘short’ and if the price closes below the VSTOP (I’ve decided to call it the ‘Volatility Stop System’) then you’d (hopefully) take profit at that point as opposed to waiting for a close contrary to the ‘standard’ VS SAR. Basically it’s just TWO ‘standard’ VS SAR calculations using different constants. WHADDA YA’LL THINK!!!

Edit:

kaalilaatikko: I’ve just tried to send you an email (to your gmail account) and it came back as undeliverable again so I’ve sent another one to the OTHER email address you gave me. Hope you get it.


Morning All,

I am now on post #154 of this thread! Slowly catching up!

After finishing the book I have now re-read both the RTS and SI sytem chapters and would like to think I have a small understanding. Out of all of the systems in the book, how does everyone keep track of the huge selection of pairs/commodities out there, and which system to use. I thought about strictly trading the majors, but even just looking at those, the workload is overwhelming for someone just starting out. Maybe I need to choose one system and only trade one or two pairs well suited for that system to start.

While trying to catch up with this thread, I caught myself cheating a bit and read a recent post regarding pairs well suited for the Volatility System. Are there Pairs/Commodities better suited for the other systems?

Regards,
M.

P.S. The more I read about these systems, the more excited I get. I’m like a little child on Christmas!

Hello,

How does everyone keep up??? With great difficulty and spending a VAST amount of time ‘keeping up’ I can assure you!!! It’s now 01h27 here and I’m just done with my orders and stuff!!!

As to which system to use: you need to read and understand the section on directional movement (ADX and ADXR). The values of ADX and ADXR will determine which system to be using on which instrument or pair at any given time. Also: the section detailing the ‘Commodity Selection Index’ will give you another (but more intricate and time consuming) way of selecting which instruments or pairs to be trading with which system. Bottom line: you have to read and understand the WHOLE book!!!

Good (Monday) morning!!!

I just thought I’d post a chart of how I INTEND to do the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing (to see whether or not it DOES INDEED have merit).

On the attached chart I’ve chosen three points. Now it does not matter from WHICH of the three points I start the sequence TODAY ALWAYS is an ‘S’ day and tomorrow will be a ‘B’ day no matter what. This is what I meant earlier when I said I’d try to find two or three points and if they ALL designate TODAY / TOMORROW as being the same ‘type of day’ then I’m happy that I’ve got the correct sequence.

Now this is actually a very good test (today) for the simple reason that EVEN ALTHOUGH today is supposedly an ‘S’ day the price has already moved right through B1 and of course the temptation is there to place the order at B1 (which by NOW i.e. at the time of posting this post would have to be a stop order). BUT: if there is any merit to the sequencing then my ‘guess’ is that the price will continue on down today AND tomorrow BUT tomorrow WILL BE A ‘B’ day SO THEN it’s time to place the order!!! If you’d placed a limit order to buy today the order will have already been executed at this point and you’d now be carrying a loss. Let’s see what happens here tomorrow.

(This is obviously open for discussion and input)!!!

Edit:

I’ve attached the same chart with the RTS levels indicated (this chart is about two hours later than the first one and as you can see the price is still dropping).



Also:

Here is a link to a site where I’m subscribed to their daily and weekly newsletter (no charge):

Oz Forex Foreign Exchange | Weekly Market Watch

I find THEIR commentaries very precise and mostly ‘on the mark’.

What also good about the site is that you can get the live Interbank rates 24/7/365 e.g. over the weekend when OUR markets (brokers) are closed (it helps when you’ve got lousy positions open and you want to see where they’re going to open on Sunday night)!!!

Good Morning,

I don’t know why it is so hard to keep emotions out of trading. I got burned on the USD last week, so I closed out all my USD positions yesterday at mediocre gains. If I’d followed the system I’d be sitting on a big fat 10% in one day gain! Not to mention I wouldn’t have lost any last friday! I swear if I could just buy a monkey and train it to trade for me I’d be a millionaire within the year. Maybe we should be studying monkeys?

I’m feeling over eager to get back into the market since all my positions cept one are now closed and that is a recipie for disaster, so I’ll wait. Sitting on USD/JPY short at the High of last week. And NONE of my RTS trades got executed last night.

If anyone sees any good trades come up during the day or wants some imput on a trade email me at <[email protected]>. I also have yahoo messenger <randon taylor>.

ALERT-SIS trades: EUR/JPY just brokeout long, CHF/JPY is very close to a breakout long too.

Hi folks (Monday night),

Randon:

I think you’re right about the monkeys!!! Seriously though: get a hold of ‘the other book’ i.e. John F. Carter’s ‘Mastering The trade’. ALL of the things that are concerning you are addressed IN DETAIL in this book.

Nick:

I’m in at market as per the VSTOP System on GBP/JPY (long obviously). Let’s see if our ‘idea’ works (I’m using a constant of 3 for the SAR and 2 for the STOP).

NOW:

I’ve spent LOADS of time today ‘scrutinizing’ this ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ sequencing again. While my previous USD/RUB example was ‘spot on the mark’ (well so far anyway) it’s really not easy to choose where to start from or be sure that you’re actually designating the relevant days correctly. SO: I’ve come up with and EVEN EASIER solution to the problem which definitely ‘fits’ with the ‘phenomemon’. Simply: you only look to place long orders TODAY if YESTERDAY was a ‘down’ day and you only look to place short order TODAY if the past TWO days were BOTH ‘up’ days. That’s a lot easier than having to go and ‘pick a starting point or two or three’ that give conflicting results for the new day I think. And (like I said): it’s still ‘in keeping’ with the ‘phenomenon’. Let’s see what happens (most of the USD/??? pairs are now ‘likely candidates’ tonight)!!!

sirkeen-

If I were you I’d just focus on a few currencies for each system. Once you start an account at deltastock and trading live you’ll be able to use Dales indicators. He’s got SIS/VS/RTS etc all programed into their platform, its np at all to follow all the pairs once you have those. Also ADX is already part of deltastocks platform under DMI. Go open a practice account with them. Once you have the systems in excell its not that bad to export all the data for a few pairs daily.