Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
927

I know we have to just “agree to disagree” on this one, but there are two things that I think haven’t been mentioned on the topic.

First off, even if I reduce to 1 lot, if it continues against me I’m still losing money (although at a slower pace than full positions.

Second, the “carry cost” is another item to consider, as it could be costing you both in price movement and also interest every night (again small chunks but could add up if you get on wrong side of a long trend). Note: This could work in your favor as well in some cases.

So the two above adds to how much you need to “recover” when the pair finally turns your way.

At this point I think we’ve covered all the variables. Just like trading styles, system preferences, etc I personally feel the decision of whether you’re “Pro-Enron” or “Pro-Loss” will vary from individual to individual.

928

Again I’ve gotta be quick here i.e. still ADSL/Broadband problems so using my mobile phone to connect.

kaalilaatikko:

One thing that I may never have mentioned on this thread: my lot sizes are set to 1000 and I increment the number of lots using this lot size to get to my % margin to be used for a position. In other words: I could have a single position open that consists of 400 lots (for example) so if I at any time ‘Enron’ the position I’m ‘dumping’ 399 lots so any more loss caused by additional movement against my position is based on the smallest possible number of lots. This would NOT work if you were using lot sizes of 10 000 (for example). In other words: if your lots sizes were set to 10 000, you had 4 lots open, and then you ‘Enron’d’ 3 lots, you’d STILL have a relatively large position open and, of course, you’d be losing a WHOLE lot of $$$ if the position continued to go against you which would obviously be defeating the object.

929

GBP/NOK has given me a traditional VS signal yesterday. This is one of my preferred VS pairs. I’m already in by VSC1.

EUR/NOK did the same 2 days ago, but I noticed that only today. I’m planning to start following those preferred VS pairs systematically from now on, so I’m in with that as well.

From the other pairs EUR/GBP and GBP/BGN have given a VS signal yesterday as well. EUR/GBP would have been a good choice already a few days ago, but I did not take it. I won’t take it any more, the reason being that the train for VSC1 already went and it is not a preferred VS pair of mine. BGN has inconvenient trading times for me, therefore ignored.

I’ve been hanging on AUD/NZD long because of a wrongly placed entry. Everybody else seems to have been following it to go southeast. Now it is up again. I’m still on loss, but very interesting to see how this finally ends.

At this point I think we’ve covered all the variables. Just like trading styles, system preferences, etc I personally feel the decision of whether you’re “Pro-Enron” or “Pro-Loss” will vary from individual to individual.

I fully agree. I learned this best with RTS: what is good for somebody else is not necessarily good for you.

J.

930

Good (Thursday) morning all!!!

Well: SO FAR I’ve got ADSL/Broadband ‘back’ (but WHO KNOW for how long today)!!!

Anyway:

I know there are some that are following my trades so you need to know what I’m doing.

I closed out GBP/NOK, EUR/GBP, GBP/ZAR, and GBP/BGN at profit late last night. Now I know I’m taking profit early BUT here are my reasons:

GBP/NOK was doing very well NOT due to GBP strength but because of lower Oil prices. I’m not convinced that Oil is going to stay down where it is (at least not without a ‘bounce’). If this happens I’ll get back into the trade at a better price.

EUR/GBP was also doing very well but to be honest: I’m not quite sure where EITHER of these currencies are going in the near future.

GBP/ZAR was ALSO doing nicely and it’s a shame to have closed it out because this was one of the ‘monster’ trades that I was waiting for. HOWEVER: Gold is hovering around $750 USD an ounce at the moment and from what I gather this COULD be a good buying opportunity. AGAIN: GBP/ZAR was doing well but NOT because of GBP strength but rather because of the drop in the Gold price. I’m figuring that a ‘bounce’ in Oil and / or Gold would have taken this pair back to a loss. Also: I’m VERY uncomfortable with the USD/ZAR price at the moment i.e. it’s ‘out of the ordinary’ right now (for me anyway). In other words: if there is a huge drop in USD/ZAR then I can assure you that there will also be a drop in GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR is one PARTICULAR pair that I DO NOT want to be ‘wrong’ on!!!

GBP/BGN was also doing well but again: I’m not quite sure where the GBP is going at this point and I see a lot of Mervyn King and Alistair Darling on Bloomberg and whenever ‘Laurel and Hardy’ get together and open their mouths the GBP tends to ‘catch a cold’!!!

With ALL of the above I’ll be watching what happens with EUR/USD and GBP/USD and Oil and Gold before making a decision to ‘get back in’ at better prices.

NOW:

I DO KNOW this is NOT waiting for a VSC(1) close to take profit and I DO KNOW that I COULD BE WRONG and my profits on these trades COULD BE DOUBLE AT LEAST. HOWEVER: the profit on just these four trades alone represented a gain of around 7.5% per account. Nothing ‘shabby’ about that (ESPECIALLY seeing that these four trades were only opened a few days ago).

Other notes:

To be honest: There is a ‘common belief’ that the market will very rarely give you between five and seven days of a single movement in the same direction without a ‘pullback of sorts’. Now while this is obviously NOT evident on somethine like GBP/USD as the moment I do believe that generally speaking this ‘common belief’ has ‘merit’ (Bill William’s talks about this). I’d feel OK with getting back into those same trades at a better price after a ‘pullback’. If it does not happen: then too bad for me. The profit is ‘in the bank’ however.

AUD/NZD: I APPEAR to REALLY be getting a ‘feeling’ for THIS darn pair!!! Twice now, after shaving some BIG amounts off of the loss from 2 May, I’ve ‘Enron’d’ the position and on BOTH occasions I’ve done this at just the right time.

I’m still ‘in’ EUR/ZAR because that has not turned to profit and I will take profit if it’s presented to me at this level for the reasons already metioned above. If taking profit does not become an option then I’ll ‘Enron’ the position when signalled to do so.

Now for those of you who may still be in those same trades: I am NOT telling you what to do. If you’re still in those same trades and you’re happy with them then by all means follow the VSC(1)/VSC(3.1) ‘systems’. I’m just giving you ‘insight’ into my ‘thought processes’ that go on daily and reasons as to why I do things and how I manage to achieve my percentage gains…

931

Nicely played Dale. I am still in GBPZAR but I have set a stop loss. Yes, I know Wilder systems don’t use them blah blah blah, but to me its really a “take profit on pullback” as I’m well into profit on the pair (4% on that trade along IF my stop is hit) So now IF GBPZAR keeps running, great, if not that’s great too.

I personally sat out the EURZAR this round, as we’ve been seeing euro weakness and I have my own “personal indicator” that I’ve developed that has been showing euro deterioration over the last couple of weeks. Another reason was that I was in EURGBP short, and since I was expecting GBP strength over EUR, I wasn’t overly confident in EUR vs ZAR as gold is down considerably from the 1000 per ounce days.

Interestingly enough, several weeks ago I jokingly told Dale gold was going to $500 per ounce. Well we’re halfway there. If only it wasn’t a joke and I actually had some valid reason to short gold that day :slight_smile:

As for USDZAR, I’m just eyeing that pair in amazement. While I know its outside of the “magic range”, you have to remember what goes up, must come down - so we just need to keep our eyes on it and be ready to catch it when it does.

932

Nice work Craig.

OK: I’m ‘out’ EUR/ZAR (at profit) and ‘in’ long GBP/CHF as per VSC(1) entry yesterday.

Regarding the ???/ZAR pairs:

What I’m (we’re) IDEALLY looking for is for all three to be at the upper end of their trading range to short them this time around. Normally all three are within their trading range but this strong move up in USD/ZAR has ‘spooked me’ somewhat so I’ll wait around and see what happens.

Having said that: the GBP appears to be getting some traction now so I’m keenly watching pairs like GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

933

Good (Friday) morning all.

One VSC(1) forex signal generated last night: AUD/CHF long.

GBP/CHF: great so far.

Another interesting thing that I’ve noticed is this:

Parabolic SAR (I never thought I’d see the day)!!!

Take a very nice good long hard look at a chart with the following:

VSC(1), SIS, and Parabolic SAR together on the same chart.

To my AMAZEMENT I noticed that ALL THREE of these trading systems generate the same signals at the same time IF it’s a good trade. How about that!!! And so far this applies to all the profitable trades I’ve done to date / am ‘in’ right now using the VSC(1). This brings me to a point for TP i.e. you COULD use Parabolic SAR to track and lock in your profit BUT ONLY IF YOU’LL RE IN A PROFIT WHEN PARABOLIC SAR’S SAR IS ‘HIT’. In other words: the VSC(3.1) is your OUTER LIMIT for ‘Enronning’ a position or closing a position at a loss NOT Parabolic SAR BUT you COULD use VSC(1) OR Parabolic SAR (whichever is closer) to TP. Note that this IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT from trading with Parabolic SAR i.e. your entry is STILL a close contrary to the VSC(1). On the other hand: could the VSC(1) be that ‘elusive long sought after filter’ for Parabolic SAR??? Anyway: Just some more of my ideas that are spurned by pure boredom!!!

By the way: some signals COULD be generated tonight for Sunday i.e. GBP and EUR are getting some ‘lift’.

Regarding the ???/ZAR pairs: I’ve heard ‘talk’ on our local radio stations here that USD/ZAR could go to 9. I’m not convinced myself and these ‘guesstimations’ are from some local enonomists but hey: WHO THE HELL KNOWS!!! I know that our econmony is in GREAT shape in spite of the problems that we’ve had so how / why the ZAR is going to depreciate to that extent is anyone’s guess.

And: I WAS kicking myself for closing out those GBP/??? positions early but I see that maybe my thinking was ‘spot on’ i.e. I see GBP/NOK is moving down fast and furiously, GBP/BGN is not climbing anymore at present, and EUR/GBP seems to have levelled out (for now anyway). BUT no matter WHAT happens: I have to keep reminding myself that ‘profit if profit’!!!

I also see the USD/??? pairs dropping ‘smartly’ right now. Strange but true.

Later.

934

Here is some ‘useless’ information:

Well: it’s only ‘useless’ to the likes of you or I (the ‘traders’) BECAUSE none of us would be able to restrain ourselves from taking profit too early!!!

BUT: for a LONG TERM INVESTOR just have a look at this:

Silver (as I type this post) is at $10.51. A position size of approximately $500 would buy you approximately 4640 units of Silver at Delta.

NOW: the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM that a person could lose if Silver went to $0.01 would be approximately $50 250.

SO: if you HAD let’s say $60 000, opened an account at Delta, bought 4640 units of Silver at $10.51, and JUST FORGOT ABOUT THE POSITION (THAT’S THE KEY) you COULD NOT LOSE YOUR MONEY AND depending on how long you wanted to wait you would ‘clean up’!!!

Silver’s HIGHEST HIGH was $21.37 on 2008-03-17. If that level was reached again the profit on this $500 position would be in the region of $48 900!!!

In other words: UNLESS Silver went to ZERO (which we all know would NEVER happen) you could not lose and, although you’d have to wait for your money and you’d not know for how long, you COULD make a small fortune!!! I mean: what do YOU think Silver is going to be worth in say ten or twenty years time??? A LOT more than $10.51 an ounce!!!

As I said: this would NEVER work for a trader BUT it COULD work for a long term investor with a pile of money (at least $50 000 - $60 000) who has a long term view i.e. has ten or twenty years to look ahead!!! I don’t think you even need to do the math (although if someone felt like doing it then go ahead) to see that if you put this same amount of money into a fixed deposit at a bank that you’d come nowhere NEAR (I don’t think anyway) these gains (but in order to be fair you’d have to find a way to ‘predict’ the price of Silver in ten or twenty years time)!!!

By the way: the interest that you’d pay on the position would be negligable because that interest is only based on the position size which would not be increasing other than in value and again, because of the leverage, would be of very little consequence!!!

935

I have never placed PSAR on my charts in Delta’s platform, well remembering your findings in the PSAR thread, one conclusion being that Delta calculated it plainly wrong.

Do you happen to know the status of Delta’s PSAR indicator nowadays? Does it still compile the values incorrectly, or have they updated the math?

936

Hello,

Delta’s ‘standard’ Parabolic SAR is not THAT far ‘out’ (but you can use mine under ‘Wilder’ as well to solve the problem). Having said that: EITHER one will suffice for the purpose for which I suggested earlier. The point is that the STRONGEST signals appear to come from the VSC(1) i.e. the others to a lesser degree. At this point I’m now long GBP/CHF and AUD/CHF BOTH of which are in profit right now. From a percentage point of view it means that out of eight trades: four I’ve ‘cleaned up’ on, two are still running, and two have been ‘Enron’d’ and are close to being ‘Un-Enron’d’ and will turn to profit I have NO doubt!!! This is the highest percentage of profitable trades I’ve had using any single ‘system’ (well I suppose that you cannot get higher than 100% now can you)!!! What I’m saying is that the ENTRIES that the VSC(1) gives you are ‘top notch’. Where YOU decide to TP is up to you and, of course, you could just let the trades run their course.

Edit:

Let me put it another way for you!!! GCI’s Parabolic SAR is ‘spot on’ with the book (no question i.e. checked and re-checked 1000 times) and even with me using GCI’s Parabolic SAR last year I STILL landed up ‘in the soup’!!! As things stand NOW: I do not blame Parabolic SAR BUT I would STILL not trade ONLY using Parabolic SAR. To be honest: it’s the ‘pshychology’ of this business that I’ve got ‘under control’ and the fact that I’m using sound money management that’s making all the difference not the indicators. (I KNOW this is a ‘many times repeat’ but for anyone else reading this I cannot stress the importance of good sound money management enough)!!!

Another edit:

By the way: those ‘VIP’ trades I’ve been waiting for may JUST be valid after the close tonight. Take a look at pairs like AUD/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY (in particular as it is a high payer), possilby even EUR/JPY etc. etc. etc. Check them out (there are lots more too).

937

Well: A VERY good (Saturday) morning to you all!!!

Now:

Have you ever sat ‘day in and day out’ and for ‘weeks on end’ getting ‘a signal here and a signal there’ but nothing really exciting??? Have you ever sat and stared at your trading platforms wondering if it’s all worth it??? Have you ever thought to yourself: ‘I cannot STAND just sitting around here all day so let me just jump in to a trade’??? And if you didn’t just ‘jump in to a trade’ have you sat and wondered if your ‘patience and restraint’ is EVER going to ‘pay off’ in the end???

Be honest.

Well my friends: it’s a time like THIS that you’ve been waiting for!! Remember this feeling the NEXT time you’re feeling ‘down’ and ‘wondering’ about this business!!! Savour this moment!!!

Take a look at this:

AUD/CAD Long
AUD/JPY Long
AUD/NZD Long
AUD/USD Long
CAD/JPY Long
EUR/JPY Long
EUR/USD Long
GBP/CAD Long
GBP/JPY Long
GBP/USD Long
NZD/JPY Long
USD/BGN Short
USD/CAD Short
USD/DKK Short
USD/NOK Short
USD/RUB Short
USD/SEK Short

That’s 17 ‘clean’, what I would call ‘Class A’, VSC(1) entry signals!!! I’ll guarantee you that most, if not all, will be ‘home runs’!!!

THESE SIGNALS ARE WHAT YOU SIT AND WAIT FOR no matter HOW difficult it might be!!! You ‘patience and restraint’ WILL be rewarded now!!!

Now furthermore:

There ARE other signals but they are not quite as clear:

CHF/BGN: I (we) already ‘missed the boat’ on this one but you MAY be able to get in ‘late’ (retro???) if price drops a bit more. You’d be looking to buy at around 1.21190 or, even better, at around 1.20432 (or both if you’ve got the margin and the ‘stomach’).

EUR/AUD: Has given a short signal BUT I’m not sure here. Do you just take the signal??? We’re looking for EUR strength in our ‘Class A’ entries (above) as well as AUD strength so what to do!!!

EUR/CHF: Has given a long signal. The only thing that would worry me about this entry is the fact that I see resistance at around 1.63275. The way I’d ‘play’ this one is to enter, TP at around that level, wait for a pullback (because there will be one I assure you), and then get ‘in’ long again using the VSC(1).

EUR/ZAR: The price has retraced to BELOW where the original VSC(1) entry was from a few days ago. Another ‘tricky’ one. Do you get in ‘late’ again??? Although we’re looking for EUR strength in our ‘Class A’ entries above Gold is starting to climb AND USD/ZAR is WAY ‘out of kilter’. While I LOVE to take this trade long again I’m wary.

GBP/ZAR: Same as above.

NZD/CHF and NZD/USD: VERY close to giving signals. BUT: is a ‘miss as good as a mile’ or do you NOT be a fool for a few pips???

USD/JPY: ‘Messy’ signals. We’ve had both long and short signals generated in the past few days. Where it’s going is anyone’s guess right now.

USD/RON: ‘Close’. REAL ‘close’.

USD/ZAR: A short entry signal has been given. I’d LOVE to trust this signal. I really would. We’re looking for USD weakness and Gold strength (remember September is traditionally a good buying opportunity for Gold or so I’m told) (MAN that WHOLE sentence ryhmes)!!! MAYBE a smaller position would be ‘the order of the day’???

Watch Silver and Gold too.

And THAT my good and dear fellow traders is IT!!!

All I can say is watch your money management rules but ‘go for it’!!!

And by the way:

It looks like Lehman Brothers has some bidders. Watch the stock on Monday!!! Same with Washington Mutual. If you cannot ‘stomach a loss’ then don’t look at them but, if you’re prepared to ‘take the chance’, they could JUST pay off (and let’s again be honest here: ZERO ain’t that far away so THERE is your ‘stop’)!!!

Well: I cannot do more for myself or you!!! Good trading!!!

938

Good (Sunday) morning everyone.

It just occurred to me that something else needs a mention here.

Further to my previous post (above) with reference to the signals given, it occurred to me that something else ‘needs a mention’ here:

I check the Interbank Spotrates over a weekend. In most cases there will be a gap (up or down) at the open on a Sunday night and because of this you may not be able to place your order at the price indicated by the TrailingIndexSAROrder ‘indicator’ (whichever order price you’ve elected to use from the ‘indicator’). If this is the case: the platform will ‘suggest’ a price at the time of placing your order. Simply accept that price is all. Remember that we’re dealing with the VS here so a couple of points / pips are not going to ‘break the bank’.

Furthermore: by now you SHOULD have a list of your orders ready to be entered tonight at the open. About half an hour before the open you should check the Interbank Spotrates and see on which pairs you’re going to get a gap ‘against your order’ i.e. the price has moved past your order price. THOSE are the orders that you will place FIRST tonight. Where the price has moved in your ‘favor’ over the weekend i.e. the price has retraced since the close on Friday so you order price for tonight is still valid you still have time to come back to those orders.

As I said in my previous post:

It’s days like THIS that you spend your time waiting for in this business.

We only have twelve trading days left for the month so let’s make the most of them!!!

Have a fantastic week!!!

939

Still Sunday.

OK: I’m ‘sticking my neck out here’!!!

Attached are the orders for tonight for the ‘Class A VSC(1) Signals’ (catchy huh???) as mentioned previously. The reason I’m posting this is so that those of you who have opened accounts at Delta (my ‘clients’) and are using the latest (correct) version of the indicators can follow the ‘methodology’.

Now: I may place ALL of these orders tonight or maybe only some of them i.e. depends on my ‘mood’!!!

And NEEDLESS to say: I (of COURSE) accept NO responsibility for any losses that you may incur as a result of placing these orders and opening these positions!!! Placing the orders and opening the positions is ‘the easy part’!!! It’s what you do with the trades once you’re ‘in’ that counts and THAT I have NO control over!!!

Have fun!!!

Class A Forex Orders 14092008 1202.pdf (8.1 KB)

940

Monday morning, here we go! I last night took all of those signals that were already triggered and experienced the start of the week with them. All of them retraced to the original signal or pretty close to it, so I might have saved something in waiting 15 minutes before placing the orders. This might be a small lesson if a setup like this ever occurs again when the week changes. All of these seem to be directing to the right direction now. There are also a couple of JPY-dominated stop orders that may be triggered today.

A month ago there were some schoolbook ZAR signals that were dicussed here. I remember my anxiety when seeing the combination of the signals then, and the trades were profitable. This time there are even more signals supporting a huge set of pairs. Though I remember the advice of not throwing too many of the indicators in the game, I made such an excercise to see any correlations more clearly. I thought to post the results yesterday evening, but for selfish reasons I decided to prioritise taking care of these trades properly first. The summary is anyway rather clear: again all of these indicators support each other amazingly well. I decided to ignore only a couple of the listed trades because they did not look as good as the others for a reason or another. The only indicator I am suspecting is PSAR. With the default parametrisation, it aligns with some of the trades but is in contradiction with some others that otherwise clearly belong to the A category here.

J.

941

Good (Monday) morning everyone (and a GOOD one it appears to be)!!!

Hey J.:

I too got into the same trades at a slight premium because of the gaps but those trades are in profit already so I’m not complaining. I HAVE INDEED thought about waiting after the open for the price to retrace and true: this DOES happen (more often than not) but sometimes it does NOT happen. I suppose it depend on how badly you want the particular trade.

Further to your comment regarding Parabolic SAR:

Remember that I’m saying that Parabolic SAR is ONLY to ‘lock in profit’ (if you WANT to use it that is). In other words: the fact that Parabolic SAR may or may not be confirming a VSC(1) trade is not important in my opinion (which is the reason I’d not go back to trading it on its own). But yes: it does give you a ‘warm and fuzzy feeling’ when ALL the indicators are ‘in line’ BUT don’t NOT take trades because they’re not i.e. the VSC(1) entries so far have been 100% correct. As I said: what happens AFTER that is what makes the difference.

Regarding the ZAR pairs: if would appear that they’re starting to ‘get in line’ with each other again i.e. USD/ZAR is WAY ‘out of range’ right now BUT GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR are also starting to go that way which can ONLY mean that not long from now we should be able to short all three of those pairs and ‘clean up’.

By the way: it’s of interest to me to note that had I NOT taken profit early on GBP/BGN and GBP/NOK profit would now already have been ‘locked in’ by the VSC(1). It’s also interesting to note that Parabolic SAR is still FAR away from being able to be used to lock in profit. HOWEVER: I have a feeling that these trades will eventually reach the point where Parabolic SAR will ‘overtake’ the VSC(1) thus locking in greater profits. I will continue to follow these trades through though to see the outcome (no matter HOW ‘painful’ it may be to see)!!!

Again: have a GREAT WEEK!!!

Oh and ‘hot off the press’: it sure looks like Lehman Brothers is ‘done for’. Unfortuanately: I have a long position on the stock!!! Oh well: you win 100% and lose 1% of the time!!! Those ‘odds’ are good enough I suppose BUT it’s NOT a nice feeling i.e. I really expected them to ‘pull something out of the bag’ over the weekend BUT it does not look as though this is going to happen. What I do NOT understand is HOW the Fed can ‘single out’ CERTAIN firms and give them assistance and yet turn down OTHER firms??? I’d be interested to see what the criteria was!!! It’s a bit unfair in my opinion (and I’m not saying this because I’m going to take a loss) and it’s a shame because Lehman Brothers is one of the oldest companies on Wall Street. I feel for them. I really do. On a smaller scale: I’ve been there before and it’s NOT a nice feeling!!!

942

Judging by the charts, there has been lots of volatility in the markets today. Trades that looked fine in the morning are on red now, and none of my stop orders has triggered. I’d like to say that despite this, there is lots of trend consolidation taking place and I’m pretty optimistic that being now patient will be pretty profitable in the near future. Dale, I appreciated a lot your recent exit comments about a couple of ZAR and NOK trades, and I’d appreciate any follow-ups of these trades by you or anybody else who has seized this opportunity. I have no data to back me, but I would guess that you see a set of signals like this time pretty seldom, maybe not even once a year.

I thought to prepare my data table about these trades so that it would be viewable in this post. Now looking at it, when the trades are one day old, it seems that a summary might suffice as well. So:

[B]VSC1[/B]
All the others except AUD/NZD, CAD/JPY and USD/CAD had a proper AC setup between Sep. 8th … 12th. I’d like to see that AC setup for the best VSC1 trades.

[B]SIS[/B]
All the others except NZD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/NOK and USD/RUB (+USZ/ZAR, USD/RON) had made a SIS signal between Sep. 11th … 12th. Most, if not all, of these looked yesterday that they might be giving the signal today. But today’s candles push that signal in the future, hopefully not too far away.

[B]RSI[/B]
I think that it is because of most of the signals have occurred after a one-year (or at least a period of several months) high or low, all the pairs had their RSI values turning away from overbought or oversold areas, indicating end of the trend. This day is causing some ripple in RSI charts, but anyway I don’t see that RSI could be used as a significant indicator here. It is just paraphrasing what we already see from the charts, VSC1 and SIS.

[B]VHF, ADX[/B]
Again, all of these pairs have these indicators in the clearly trending areas (I checked only the smoothed ADX). The only exception is USD/CAD, for which I mark this as a minus.

And PSAR: Dale, sorry, I read your post too quickly. No entries by it. I’ll keep PSAR in mind when looking at exits.

My conclusion: VSC1 and SIS are a good indicator combination. I dropped USD/CAD, CAD/JPY and NZD/JPY out of my list. USD/RUB drops because of inconvenient trading times. Maybe I should have dropped USD/NOK as well, because it hadn’t given the SIS signal. And AUD/NZD didn’t have proper AC setup, but I already have a badly opened position for it.

J.

943

Good (Tuesday) morning all.

All I can say is: ‘WOW’!!! WHAT A DAY (yesterday)!!!

As I said: we’re seeing HISTORY being made here!!! A couple of years from now you’ll be able to say: ‘Hey, I was trading back then on that day, and I MADE IT through. Those were the days’!!! CNBC will be making a DVD of the events of the past couple of hours!!! As I have said on more than one occasion: if you can trade and make money under the prevailing conditions you’ll be able to trade and make an absolute FORTUNE under ‘normal’ conditions I assure you!!!

Anyway (as you have no doubt gathered): some of our orders were executed and, thanks to all the ‘shinannigans’ on Wall Street those positions are all showing losses BUT ‘hang in there’. Remember this: the GBP and EUR move ‘in tandem’ with the Dow and, assuming we’re ‘at’ or ‘near’ a ‘bottom’, and assuming we’ve not had to SAR these positions at a loss, or ‘Enron’ these postions, these positions should take off like ‘rockets’ ESPECIALLY if the Fed cuts rates later on today (and of course the USD will drop and stocks will ‘take off’)!!! Again: just ‘hang in there’!!!

Have a good (better???) day!!!

944

By the way:

If you want to see WHY Parabolic SAR ‘fails you’ then take a look at the AUD/??? pairs this morning with Parabolic SAR. You would have gone long at market at 01h00 ‘Delta time’ last night if you were trading with Parabolic SAR and you would have already been stopped out at HUGE losses. A ‘gentle’ reminder of ‘the past’ for me!!!

945

Good (Tuesday) afternoon all.

Just to let you know that I’m a ‘chicken’!!! A ‘coward’!!! Call me what you will BUT I will not be opening ANY new positions until this ‘AIG and WAMU thing’ is sorted out one way or the other. Me: I’m just ‘sitting on the sidelines’ for now (frustrating as it may be)!!!

The problem is this: IF AIG collapes like Lehman then this is going to affect the entire world (and I’m NOT just referring to stocks here e.g. ‘good luck’ to anyone long on GBP/JPY for instance)!!!

Of course it does NOT mean I wont be sitting here ‘glued’ to my screens or monitoring events on Bloomberg or checking in on the thread!!! I just believe that it’s ‘prudent’ to ‘take a back seat’ right now. The fact of the matter is that this really is ‘history in the making’ but I don’t want to BECOME a PART of history!!! I believe that right now my position is to NOT take a position at all!!!

946

Hello, everyone, where have you hidden yourselves (except Dale)? We are living through some sort of climax in the manuscript of this thread as well, and it’s like everybody had disappeared. I would expect loads of posts now, but does this silence mean that everybody is being hit a bit too hard now? It’s admittedly pretty rough. My account is about at BE, but the total with open positions is -20%, changing 1-2% up or down in half an hour. Perfect rollercoaster drive of 25% difference in tops and lows for a while now. I’m glad this is not my first or second week live, otherwise it might have become a disaster, but not now - I’m expecting quite the opposite after the markets calm a bit.