Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

Hi Dale, glad I was able to help. I would say that so far, the volatility system is great. The only thing I don’t like about it is (obviously) the wide stop and reverse signals. Of my three open VS trades, only one would be in profit if it hit the sar (aud/jpy) and it would end up only being about +90 pips. On the other hand, the wide sar will keep you in the right direction, just looking back at past examples (like you mentioned earlier the huge move in eur/usd it would have kept you in) so I guess you could say it’s a “love/hate” feeling.

I’m thinking about using a similar strategy to what I am doing with the TBP system, where I take profit (if the trade is showing a positive gain) and re-enter at the current price at the close every day regardless if my target was hit or not. To apply this to the volatility system, I was thinking about taking profits at every 100 or 200 pips or something like that. If you ask me, if “the man” had access to the markets at his fingertips and could execute trades in a split-second over the internet, I think something like this would be incorporated into his systems. I remember reading somewhere that 30 or 40 years ago the spreads in the forex market were like 50 or 100 pips on a pair and to execute trades you had to call your broker and pay some sort of commission, as opposed to now where everything is instantaneous and you have so much more information and technology. This also could explain why all of his systems are based on daily timeframes, because of the time and costs required in the 1970s to open positions, get the market data, and compute the values of everything in the systems. Imagine trading to do intraday trading without a computer in the 1970s… it would be nearly impossible.

Thanks for helping me out on the limit stuff… maybe I just didn’t look hard enough on the cbot website for the information, I will take another look tomorrow.

Also, thanks for working with GCI to allow us to open accounts. After hearing your input on the matter about how you recommend $5,000 to trade the commodities and indices, it made me think and I may stick to forex pairs and gold for a little while longer. I was wondering though: can you trade forex and the commodities and indices from the same account? If so, I may just switch to GCI and trade forex for now, and start with the commodities in limited amounts as I add to my account.

-Nick

Hello,

Pleasure for everything.

I must say that you make some interesting points about Wilder and those years i.e. I have not actually thought about that either i.e. what WOULD Wilder have done had he HAD the tools that we have today at our disposal. Certainly something to think about. (Sometimes I feel terrible when I post something like this i.e. it almost comes across like the man is dead. Well he is NOT dead BUT he / they do not want to provide support on the book i.e. he / they did help me out once or twice last year but made it very clear that the book and the systems therein are sold ‘as is’ and no support is offered OTHERWISE believe me I’d have asked him ALL of these questions myself)!!!

If you open a CFD account i.e. access to stocks, commodities, indices, gold, silver, and forex pairs then the forex pairs that you have available to you to trade on this account will ONLY be the major pairs and a few crosses but I think this is OK i.e. these are the only forex pairs I’m trading (even at Delta) for clients anyway SO you CAN open an account at GCI under this little ‘arrangement’ and have access to THOSE forex pairs. You just need to let me know if and when you want to do this so that I can open the ‘deposit account’ and transfer the money. Once that’s done then you just go ahead as ‘normal’.

Look: I am NOT trying to scare anyone off from GCI and the instruments that they have on offer i.e. the problem is WHAT you trade and HOW MUCH OF IT you trade and like I said before: I’ve seen a single $50 lot at 200:1 leverage turn to a loss of more than $400 in a morning!!! I suppose what I’m saying is this: trading those things requires a lot of ‘respect’ i.e. it’s not like trading something like EUR/USD where you can afford to ‘mess up’ or miss a stop and reverse signal now and then and NOT wipe your account out ESPECIALLY on the longer timeframes and, admittedly, at the time of this ‘Soybean crisis’ I was trading ONLY the daily charts so by the time you find out you’re ‘wrong’ and in a ‘bad trade’ it’s too late i.e. only the next day or at the close today do you find this out and by then you’re down the $400. That’s where there is a big difference.

Anyway: whatever you decide is good for me; just keep me posted if you need me to do anything.

Further to this GCI ‘story’:

It’s been ‘bugging’ me this leverage ‘thing’.

I have not been able to make sense of the fact that by DECREASING the leverage all you are really doing is INCREASING the amount of margin required to open a position. Right up until today I was under the impression that by DECREASING the leverage you were protecting yourself in some way by REDUCING the value of a single tick / point / pip movement and that INCREASING the leverage was a ‘bad thing’. What I can’t ‘fathom’ is if you are staying within your (Wilder’s) money management rules then it WOULD APPEAR that INCREASING the leverage makes it EASIER to ‘stick’ to those rules. Let me explain:

(All the examples below refer to GCI accounts):

[U]On the default 200:1 leveraged accounts:[/U]

EUR/USD - 1 single mini lot - [B]$50[/B] margin cost.
Value per single pip movement - [B]$1[/B].

So let’s say that the starting capital in this account is $500 then this means that in the above case you are using 10% of your capital on a single lot (which is within Wilder’s rules) and you are margining 10% of your total capital (which is also within Wilder’s rules).

NOW: as it has been explained to me by GCI Admin:

[U]INCREASING the leverage to 400:1:[/U]

EUR/USD - 1 single mini lot - [B]$25[/B] margin cost.
Value per single pip movement - [B]$1[/B].

So let’s say that the starting capital in this account is $500 then this means that in the above case you are using 5% of your capital on a single lot (which is within Wilder’s rules) and you are margining 5% of your total capital (which is also within Wilder’s rules).

[U]DECREASING the leverage to 100:1:[/U]

EUR/USD - 1 single mini lot - [B]$100[/B] margin cost.
Value per single pip movement - [B]$1[/B].

So let’s say that the starting capital in this account is $500 then this means that in the above case you are using 20% of your capital on a single lot (which is now AGAINST Wilder’s rules) and you are margining 20% of your total capital (which is still within Wilder’s rules).

[U]DECREASING the leverage to 50:1:[/U]

EUR/USD - 1 single mini lot - [B]$200[/B] margin cost.
Value per single pip movement - [B]$1[/B].

So let’s say that the starting capital in this account is $500 then this means that in the above case you are using 40% of your capital on a single lot (which is ALSO against Wilder’s rules) and you are margining 40% of your total capital (which is NOW against Wilder’s rules).

Can you see the difference and what I’m trying to say???

OK: it’s of no consequence WHOSE money management rules you are following (I’m just using Wilder’s in the examples because I use a [B]conservative[/B] derivative of his rules) it would appear that all a higher leverage setting is going to do is ‘screw’ you IF you don’t stick to and within a decent set of money management rules BUT it does NOT change the tick / point / pip values at all which is NOT what I’ve been led to believe after all this time UNLESS I am STILL not understanding this and GCI is confusing me!!!

On the other hand: remember that a single lot of the Dow at Deltastock costs you $632.95 of margin per lot (50% of the Dow’s current point value) because at Delta you trade the indices on 5% margin BUT the tick / point value is $1. At GCI (with the ‘default’ 200:1 leverage) a single mini lot of the Dow Futures costs you $50 of margin per lot and the tick / point value IS STILL $1 because at GCI you trade the indices on 0.5% margin which is roughly equal to 200:1 leverage. If the leverage is INCREASED at GCI to 400:1 then the same single mini lot of the Dow Futures would cost you $25 per mini lot and the tick / point value IS STILL $1 so where is the 400:1 MORE RISKY than the 200:1 or 100:1 or 50:1??? Based on MY understanding of the above it would seem that the LOWER the leverage the more risk involved i.e. at GCI with with 50:1 leverage you’d be ‘laying out’ $200 to buy a single lot of the Dow Futures to make $1 per tick / point movement but at 400:1 you’re only ‘laying out’ $25 to make the same $1 per tick / point movement and at Delta you’re currently ‘laying out’ well over $600 to make the same $1 per tick / point movement. You tell ME which looks ‘riskier’.

From what I can see from this little ‘excercise’ the only reason that very high leverage COULD be a ‘bad thing’ is IF YOU cannot CONTROL YOURSELF and stick to a good set of money mangement rules i.e. lower leverage DOES NOT equate to a different or lower tick / point / pip value so if you’re trading Soybeans for example it does not matter WHAT your leverage setting is if it goes limit down your would STILL make / lose the same amount regardless of how much margin you’d ‘layed out’ for the lot.

Unless my understanding of this WHOLE thing is wrong then AGAIN I’d say that THE ONLY REASON that ‘leverage is a killer’ is because a person MAY tend to overtrade the account because they now have more margin available to them to trade on a given amount of capital BUT if you’re using a good set of money management rules then I don’t see the difference UNLESS as I say I’ve had this wrong all this time and GCI is ‘screwing with my brain’.

I have asked GCI to INCREASE the leverage on my accounts to 400:1 to see what happens i.e. to see what the difference is going to be because I’m NOT getting this!!!

I’m also going to ask John Foreman (‘rhodytrader’) to either confirm the above or to RE-EXPLAIN leverage and the pitfalls of having higher leverage.

Anyone else feel free to ‘chime in’!!!

Hi Dale, how’s the day been for you? Gold took quite a tumble yesterday but thankfully the volatility trade got me in short several days earlier, and I’m enjoying the ride so far :slight_smile:

Anyway, I am almost ready to start trading the SI live, but there is one thing stopping me. I plugged in the numbers (high/low/open/close) from the book to verify my excel sheet, and I’m pretty sure I found another error in the book. On Day 7, I get an SI value of -53, but in the book it is -45. All of my other SI values match up with the book except for this one, so I’m wondering what the problem is… if you could verify this for me it would be much appreciated.

I was also wondering, if you think that “business” with the 7-day EMA as a filter to the SI you mentioned earlier is still worthwhile? I will pretty much be only trading the SI on the daily timeframe because school (and sleeping) are preventing me from doing otherwise, so I was wondering if you still think it is a good idea to use the ema.

-Nick

Yo,

I’ve checked and my value agrees with the book i.e. -45. The value just above it is 54 i.e. are you sure you’re not just looking at the wrong line or something (no offense but it’s REAL easy to make mistakes on this thing initially). Are you also sure that your functions are correctly set up i.e. the MAX() function for ‘R’ as this would make a difference.

As far as the 7 period EMA is concerned I’m not using it i.e. not for any good reason really i.e. just back to the SI System on its own i.e. purely ‘mechanical’ SI. While the 7 period EMA sometimes keeps you out of bad trades it also keeps you out of good trades especially on a stop and reverse so I’ve just ‘kinda’ dropped it and I let the SI System just ‘do its thing’!!! To be hones: I don’t think that this system needs any tweaks whatsoever (I know I said that it MAY at one time but it’s proving itself over and over and over again to me). As ‘boring’ as that may sound it ‘just works’ so I’m done with ‘messing with it’!!! The key to the SI System is to follow it ‘religiously’, trust it, never miss a signal or second guess the system, and do not overtrade your account i.e. stick to either Wilder’s money management rules or mine and you cannot go wrong.

Let me know if you can’t figure out what the problem with your calculations is and / or send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you a copy of my worksheet that I used to check my set up with the book.

Hi Dale,

I’m still waiting for Wilder’s book to arrive from Amazon.com (should be here within the next week hopefully!).

Just curious to know if you are still trading the daily charts (as I believe the SI follows??) and also if you are still trading forex pair profitably? (or are you really just onto commodities now?). If so, how many pips on average to you profit a week?

Can’t wait to get the book!

Cheers,
Tom

Hello All, Dale and Charles,

Thanks to both for the valuabe input to this thread. I haven’t had much time to post what with work commitments and all, but I’m reading along and at the same time I’m working my way through the book.

I read about a few chapters and right now I’m trying out the VI system. I still have to re-read the section on the CSI to help fully understand it but I’ll get there. I also got lost a bit half way through the Directional Movement section so a bit of re-reading there as well.

Thanks for introducing me to this book Dale. Has been great so far.

Best Regards
Boca

Dale, as I’ve said before (several times, I’m sure), the ONLY THING that changes pip value is position size. It matters not one iota what your leverage is. If you’re trading a full EUR/USD lot a pip is going to be worth $10 no matter if you’re using no leverage or 1000:1 leverage. The only thing that changes with your leverage ratio is your margin requirement.

See How much leverage to use? Wrong question! for further discussion.

Yo everyone,

OK: first a big thank you to John for the confirmation. Seems I’ve been under a bit of an ‘illusion’ here!!!

Right: what this really means to ME then is this:

As we have now found out (love the way John explains things i.e. none of my ‘waffle’) leverage is NOT going to make a difference to what MAY happen to your account (ASSUMING you follow a good set of money management rules of course) it’s WHAT you trade that’s going to make the difference SO it then really makes no difference whether you trade the Dow Futures at GCI or the Dow ‘proper’ at Delta. With that in mind it DOES then make a difference whether or not you trade Soybeans for example i.e. it would appear then that it’s NOT a good idea to trade Soybeans with a $500 account!!! In other words it’s the INSTRUMENT that’s being traded and the value per tick / point / pip movement of that instrument in relation to your capital that’s important. FINALLY!!! (I think I’ve got it John)!!!

Tom:

Geez: I thought WE always got ‘the last shipping container to leave Amazon’ over here!!! I have been trading with the SI System on different timeframes and it always seems to work. As with ANY system the shorter the timeframe, the more ‘false starts’ you’re going to get and the less your potential profits and losses are but the SI System does appear to work on ANY timeframe. I’m currently working on the 4 hour timeframe and it’s working well (but I cannot honestly say that it’s any better or any worse on the 1 hour timeframe). As I think I mentioned earlier: as long as you ‘stick’ with the system regardless, do not ‘second guess’ it, take your losses ‘like a man’, ride out your profits ‘like a veteran trader’, and never forget to place stop and reverse orders, I don’t see how you or I can go wrong (again)!!! As far as pips per week / month go I don’t count them i.e. I only look at percentage gain on starting capital at the beginning of the month / period and I can tell you that MY average is VERY HIGH (sorry but I unfortuantely cannot be more specific than that nowadays because of my business. The only clue I can give is this: if the banks gave you 100% per annum on your money you’d not even be close). To be honest: I am surprised myself BUT having said that the really strange thing is this: I am doing OK NOW BUT NO NECESSARILY because of the SI System!!! Now I know you’re all ‘throwing your hands up’ and saying ‘NOW what is he on about’!!! It has taken me a VERY long time to learn this but FINALLY the ‘penny has dropped’ and you know what the ‘secret’ to this business is: MONEY MANAGEMENT and VERY STRICT adherence to it!!! All of Wilder’s systems work on the stop and reverse principal and if you’re overtrading your account it does not matter HOW good his systems are you will STILL ‘wipe out’. Why? Because if a trade is ‘bad’ (and there will always be ‘bad’ trades): you stop and reverse when signalled, take the loss, and let the new position run. If you’re overtrading your account: one or two successive losses could put you in such a bad position that you CAN no longer stop and reverse when necessary and with Wilder’s systems that’s ‘the thing’ i.e. if the first trade is ‘bad’ then next trade after the stop and reverse almost always covers the loss on the initial trade AND makes a profit over and above that. If you’re overtrading and you can only stop and not do the stop and reverse because you’ve now run out of margin then it’s only a matter time before you’re either reaching for the credit card to ‘pump up’ your account OR you’re ‘out’. And it’s not easy I can tell you i.e. sometimes I find myself opening positions that will ‘j-u-s-t’ push my money management percentages over their limit and guess what: I have mastered the art to say ‘NO’. ‘NO TRADE’!!! ‘TRADE MISSED’!!! ‘THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ONE’!!! I either close pending orders that will push my money management percentages over their limit (even 1% over) if I find I’ve placed too many orders or I don’t even think about placing an order if I’m going to use even $0.01 more of total margin / margin required for the position that my money management rules permit. You will NOT believe the difference this makes and the stress that it relieves. When a position is going ‘south’ on you (me) you no longer sit with a ‘sick’ feeling in your stomach or feel the need to ‘jump’ on the position and take the loss because you can’t stand it anymore OR because you’re heading for a margin call. You are able to ‘ride’ the position out (be it profit or loss) KNOWING that if it’s a bad trade you WILL get another good trade, cover the loss, and come out on top in the end. Oh and this week I’ve been pretty much concentrating on the major forex pairs with the SI System (probably for no other good reason than to prove a point to someone)!!! It works.

Boca:

I am so very pleased that you are happy with the book. It took me a LONG time to grasp many things (and the one or two mistakes in the book don’t help at all I can assure you) BUT I can tell you that it’s the best $70 or so (I bought mine before I knew any of you so NO DISCOUNT for ME) that I will EVER spend in my life!!!

Thanks Dale, figured out the problem, I forgot to use the absolute value function for R. Everything is correct now, I’m going to start following the system at the close today with gold and gbp/jpy.

Also, thought I should tell you that my volatility trades are currently not doing as well as I hoped. USD/CAD is now down around 100 pips and AUD/JPY is only around +230 pips, after it was as high as almost +700. However, I am still a ways away from a stop and reverse on both pairs, so I will hold on to these until I’m told to stop and reverse… kinda tough but I gotta do it.

Good morning,

Nick:

Sorry to hear about your VS trades (or rather that you’re a bit dissapointed at the moment). It’s admirable that you’re sticking to the system though. It’s the only way to do things though as difficult as it may be. I must tell you that I saw your post last night and started to reply to it but got called away for something and did not finish my reply. While I was replying to you last night (to give you an example) one of my accounts was UP 24% ON THE DAY. As I type to you now the same account is now only UP 15% on yesterday i.e. the profits have gone down overnight i.e. in the last four hours. Dissapointing I know BUT I know for sure that, after I have now placed my stop and reverse orders, if they get hit, profit is locked in and I’ll make some more on the stop and reverse. And, as is the nature of Wilder’s systems, the chances are that some of the stop and reverse orders will NOT be hit and the profits will continue to climb in the next four hourse (probably even surpass the 24% of yesterday). The temptation is ALWAYS there to take profit when you see ‘nice big juicy’ profits in front of you BUT it’s not following the system or proving anything i.e. by ‘bailing early’ you’ll never be sure if your system is ‘sound’ or not. By following the trades through ‘no matter what’ I have proved to myself that the SI System is ‘sound’.

NOW:

AGAIN:

This ‘leverage thing’:

I have worked out this little ‘table’ for us based on Wilder’s money management rules taking our possible leverage settings into account. It’s not much different from what I’ve been using up until now i.e. it’s even slightly more conservative BUT is seems to make sense and regardless of your leverage setting it SHOULD protect you from overtrading.

Wilder says to not use more than 15% of your capital on a single commodity (I take that as being per instrument per trade). He also says to never have margined more than 60% of your total capital at any given moment in time. So in keeping with these rules this is what I’ve come up with:

Positions:

Leverage / Position size as a percentage of capital to not exceed:

50:1 / 15%*
100:1 / 7.5%
200:1 / 3.75%**
400:1 / 1.875%

Capital Management:

Leverage / Percentage of total capital margined at any given moment in time:

50:1 / 60% (GCI lot size $200)*
100:1 / 30% (GCI lot size $100)
200:1 / 15% (GCI lot size $50)**
400:1 / 7.5% (GCI lot size $25)

  • Taken this to be the leverage that Wilder used and upon which he based his money management rules.

** The default for most of us.

As you can see: the higher your leverage the more capital you need in your account in order to comply with these (his???) money management rules.

I ALMOST guarantee that using the above maximums will ‘keep you out of trouble’. Obviously you STILL have to take into account the $ value of a tick / point / pip movement i.e. you STILL do not attempt to trade Soybeans or the Brasilian Bovespa with a $500 account!!!

Thanks for that info on the money management Dale. It helps a lot, and it’s funny to say this because usually it’s the opposite problem, but it looks like I am being a little TOO conservative with my trades, not that it’s a totally bad thing. I have 50:1 leverage with Oanda and my trades are only margining about 5% of my account balance each, but I think I’m going to increase that a bit now, probably to 10% or so.

I’m also going to officially start trading the SI live tonight… decided on gbp/jpy and Gold, wonder how long it will be until I get a trade on the daily charts? I’ll be sure to keep you posted on my results, and also with the VS trades as well. I was wondering though: from your experience are the SI trades held as long as VS trades on average? I know we discussed this earlier but I just want to make sure it will be okay to keep trading the VS and SI (and TBP) on the same instruments (gbp/jpy and gold) at the same time and avoid any conflicts.

edit: Looking at my spreadsheet for the Gold SI, I noticed that I am getting some negative values on some days for the ASI… have you ever seen this? Everything appears to be correct, and it doesn’t seem like it will affect the trades because HSPs and LSPs can still be identified and also the TISAR.

Also, I’m having a problem with the 60-point TISAR. When I change the limit number, it makes the ASI values change at a different rate, for example if I set the limit for gold to 3.00, there will be MANY days where the ASI changes by more than 60 points since the values are in the 1000s… and vice versa if I make the limit 200 the SI values are MUCH smaller (like -20 to 20) so the ASI will practically NEVER change by 60 points over a period of time!! Could it be that the 60-point TISAR needs to be changed based on the values of the ASI or something? Or maybe since gold is quoted (usually) xxx.xx (or for example 850.54) I need to multiply the SI by a “pipfactor” of some sort (like 0.1) since the instrument used in the book is quoted xx.xx (or for example 56.35).

On my spreadsheet for gold, if I leave the limit at 3.00, and multiply the resulting SI values by a “pipfactor” of 0.1, I get SI values that for the most part stay between -100 and 100, but there are several days where it is greater than 100 or less than -100…

Good morning (again)!!!

Initially I was working on one half of Wilder’s money management rules i.e. 7.5% of capital per instrument / position and 30% of total capital. I then decided to be slightly more conservative and start using one third of Wilder’s money management rules i.e. 5% of capital per instrument / position and 20% of total capital. After I started thinking about GCI’s leverage and position sizes and after I got John’s response I then re-worked things out so that I was sure that the same money management rules would work at both brokers i.e. GCI and Delta and, after drawing up that table, it would appear that I was (LUCKILY) not far out to start with i.e. using EXACTLY his money management rules with 50:1 leverage is ALMOST exactly the same as using one half of his money management rules with 200:1 leverage.

As I said before: using a decent money management system has definitely made all the difference and is yet another reason that I have now uncovered for my shortcomings last year. If you can remember: sometime back I actually said to you (I think it was you anyway) that it seemed to take me a LOT longer to wipe an account at Delta than it took me to wipe an account out at GCI. Only NOW do I see the reason for this i.e. money management. At GCI the COST of the lot is fixed and the lot SIZE is varied by GCI whereas at Delta the lot SIZE is (can) be varied by the trader and the COST of the lot is then varied accordingly. What this means is that at Delta as I would run out of margin I’d be able to reduce the lot size whereas at GCI I would always be trading the same lot size while the captial was being reduced!!! May sound simple and logical NOW with hindsight but at the time I could not really figure this out. Now I know and ‘the sky is the limit’ I reckon!!!

Now that I’m trading off the 4 hour charts my SI System trades seem to run on average for about a day and a half, maybe two days, from the time of opening a position until the stop and reverse.

Just one thing you need to consider when trading the same instruments with multiple systems: at GCI this could be done no problem i.e. opening multiple positions on the same instrument in either direction is possible because the positions do not offset each other (this is the ‘hedging’ capability they ‘bang on’ about). At Delta though this would NOT be possible because if you have a few positions open on an instrument (let’s say going long for example) and you then try to open some short positions on the same instrument (this would happen sometimes if the systems were giving conflicting signals) then the short positions would immediately close some of the long positions (unless you use the ‘Trades with Logical orders’ option which ‘sucks’ in my opinion i.e. not the same as GCI’s ‘hedging’). Delta’s method is indeed the correct method i.e. enables you to perform a ‘proper’ stop and reverse i.e. without having to place a stop on one position and another order for the reverse on the other position as you would have to do at GCI. I am not familiar with the way Oanda operates as far as this is concerned but just ‘check it out’ first is all.

Somewhere in the book, hidden away in a dark corner, you’ll find that Wilder actually says that if the ASI have a negative value then the trend is down and if the ASI has a positive value then the trend is up. How powerful is THAT knowledge my friends??? A MATHEMATICAL way of determining the long term trend direction!!! Point is: yes you will get positive and negative value for the ASI i.e. it is correct.

As I said to you before: I’ve left the limit number in the equation and kept it at 3.00 i.e. my ASI calculations are exactly the same as the original BUT I added the ‘PIPFACTOR’ at the end and divide the ASI by the ‘PIPFACTOR’. As I also said before: you’ll note that PARTICULARLY with forex pairs the TISAR is ALWAYS the closes stop and reverse point i.e. I have yet to see when the last HSP or LSP was the closest stop and reverse point on a forex pair. Also remember that Gold, USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR, and GBP/ZAR are ‘special cases’ i.e. the ‘PIPFACTOR’ for Gold is / must be 0.10 and not 0.01 as you might expect and the ‘PIPFACTOR’ for the ???/ZAR pairs is / must be 0.0010 and not 0.0001 again as you might expect. I’m sure I’ve been through this before, but anyway, I use GCI’s tick value from their Contract Specifications page to get the ‘PIPFACTOR’ (found here: GCI Financial Ltd - Online Forex and CFD Trading) (see all the ‘0.1’ and ‘1.0’ and ‘0.01’ figures. Those are the ‘PIPFACTORS’ that I use). If you’re still having a problem then email me at [email protected] and I’ll send you another spreadsheet (or a couple) for you to have a look at (I don’t want to attach the spreadsheets here anymore because as one of our ‘thread members’ quite correctly pointed out to me a little while ago: by posting the spreadsheets I’m possibly ‘giving away’ the systems to ‘hangers on’ who are not prepared to do the ‘slog’ and are just here ‘for the ride’ i.e. not prepared to even buy the book like the rest of us. Not to mention the copyright issues again of course).

By the way: as I’m replying to you now I just thought that you would like to know that since my last post to you earlier this morning one of my accounts (for example) is BACK up to 20% on yesterdays and climbing steadily and that’s after two positons have already been stopped and reversed at losses in the preceding 4 hours. ‘Hang in’ with these systems and you can’t go wrong in the end!!!

And by the way: to keep myself ‘occupied’ I’m think I’m going to give the VS a ‘run’ on GBP/JPY 1 hour i.e. been tracking it since last night waiting for an entry. I was also looking at the Reaction Trend System yesterday again (as you can see trading the 4 hour timeframe is giving some ‘spare time’ now). It occured to me that you could trade that system WITHOUT going through all the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ ‘mumbo jumbo’ i.e. you just ‘go for it’ i.e. in a ranging market you place a stop order to sell AFTER S1 has been penetrated and the price is still above S1 and you place a stop order to buy AFTER B1 has been pentrated and the price is still below B1 (pretty much the same thing that you would do when CORRECTLY trading with Pivot Points). It appears to work EVERY TIME!!! Take a look. That’s probably the second most complicated system in the book i.e. very high maintenance if you follow the ‘B’, ‘O’, and ‘S’ ‘thingy’ but if you use it the way I just desribed it’s ‘quick and easy’. Will probably ‘demo’ my ‘theory’ sometime during the course of the day / week. As a matter of fact I have used the HBOP’s and LBOP’s from that system on their own quite successfully in the past. Not many trades though i.e. you’re always waiting for a breakout so I got impatient and moved on.

Thanks for that Dale, it helps but I’m still having issues. On gold, If I leave the limit at 3, and don’t use a pipfactor at all, my SI values range between roughly -1000 and 1000, so dividing by the pipfactor of 0.1 will only make the values bigger. However, if I leave the limit at 3 and MULTIPLY the end result of the SI by 0.1, then I get values that fluctuate between about -115 and 115, which seems to be right.

On a “standard” forex pair like usd/cad where the price is quoted 1.xxxx if I keep the limit at 3 and divide the SI by a pipfactor of .001 (not .0001) I get SI values which fluctuate between -500 and 500 or so, and if I change the pipfactor to .01 the values fluctuate between -50 and 50 or so, which actually seems more correct to me because the price data I’m using for this pair (the last 6 weeks or so) the market is mostly ranging, so the values not getting much higher or lower than 50 or -50 seems to make sense.

I’m not sure why I’m getting these results, but as long as I tweak the pipfactor to divide (or multiply) by a tick value that makes the SI values range between roughly -100 and 100 do you think it will be okay? Are you still getting SI values sometimes that are a little bit higher or lower than -100 and 100? I just don’t get how I am having these problems because if I plug in the figures from the book into my spreadsheet everything is spot on perfect…

Hello,

I see where you’re getting confused i.e. same problem I had i.e. I tried various different ‘PIPFACTORS’ or variations of the limit value to try and make thing ‘look’ right and you can’t do that i.e. if you start trying to use values to make things ‘look’ right you either end up with a TISAR that will NEVER get hit in a lifetime or one that is so close you’d be stopping and reversing on every bar. Don’t worry about the SIZE of the numbers that you’re getting for the ASI just make sure that your calculations are constant and consistent throughout.

Here are examples of some of my values (using the ASI value from the previously completed bar):

Gold (PIPFACTOR: 0.10, Limit: 3.00):

Daily : 103611
4 Hour : 42307
1 Hour : -6633

Silver (PIPFACTOR: 0.01, Limit: 3.00):

Daily : 17757
4 Hour : 8600
1 Hour : -337

The value of 60 would be added or subtracted from these numbers for the TISAR value. (Your numbers WILL be different from mine but the ranges should be close to them). I’m not worrying myself about the SI range being over or under -100 / 100 as stated in the book because it was YOU the other day that said it’s probably because we don’t have limits anymore (at least not on these instruments). Let me put it another way: whether I’m right or wrong here the SI System is working well so EVEN IF I / we are wrong here which I seriously doub’t then I STILL would not worry about it too much. Like I said: send me an email and I’ll send you some spreadsheets and charts with the ASI and TISAR plotted and you will be able to see from there).

Again: don’t try to ‘fit’ your ASI plot to the example drawn in the book i.e. you’ll never get it right. As a matter of fact you’ll actually find that the reason your ASI plot MAY look different is also due to the fact that the actual ‘scaling’ of your plot will be different to his manual plot on the graph paper i.e. Excel and the trading platforms ‘scale’ the plot so that it fits on the screen. If you enlarge the plot that you see on the screen only then do you get a plot that resembles his example.

By the way (I figured this warranted it’s own post):

As I have also said before you COULD forget about the TISAR altogether and only trade the HSP’s and LSP’s. This would keep you in trades longer and probably avoid many whipsaws. The drawback (and it’s a very big one) is the fact that if you (for example) place a stop order to go long because you’ve had a close above the last HSP and that order gets executed and the price then immediately retracts and ‘tanks’ down you’re only going to place an order to stop and reverse when the price closes below the last LSP and if the HSP and LSP are far away from each other you COULD find yourself in DEEP ‘sh*t’. It’s a suggestion but not one that I would follow. The only reason I’m telling you this is because it’s the calculation and plot i.e. ‘visual representation’ of the TISAR that’s confusing you (and confused me for a while) not the calculation of the ASI i.e. as we have ALSO said before it makes no difference whether you use a limit, a PIPFACTOR, or anything else the actual plot of the ASI does not change.

Thanks Dale, I get similar values to yours on gold for the ASI (ranging between about -7000 and 15000 for data compiled in the last 6 weeks) but I still don’t understand how you use the 60 point TISAR since every day the ASI is changing much more than 60 points… I know there is something I’m not getting, still trying to figure it out…

Ok well it’s a pleasure and it’s probably better if you figure it out yourself. However: SEND ME AN EMAIL if you can’t!!!

Actually: I just had a look at the daily Gold chart again and I THINK I see what’s ‘bugging you’ i.e. yes you are quite right i.e. the ASI DOES go back on itself FAR more than 60 points on some (possibly most) days BUT remember that even if this happens it does NOT mean that the TISAR order is getting executed i.e. most times (as he says in the book) the TISAR order will not get hit and the price continues on in the direction of your position. Remember that you are using stop orders ‘a few ticks above or below the high or the low’ of the signal bar NOT market orders like the VS. Maybe that’s what you’re not seeing. Not sure.

Hopefully that’s what I’m seeing, just as an example here are my last 10 ASI values for the daily chart on gold:

1,396.20
1,859.31
5,130.13
7,078.61
5,929.16
3,305.47
1,055.13
-7,458.35
-8,353.07
-4,092.72

This is with taking the SI for each day (with limit 3) and dividing it by .1, then calculating the ASI as yesterday’s ASI plus or minus today’s SI… so according to my (obviously incorrect) values the ASI changes 1000 points a day at least.

Hoookay, I see the problem.

Basically you’re figures are probably right but you’re not dividing them by the ‘PIPFACTOR’ to get what I call a ‘PASI’. In other words if you divide all of those figures that you gave me by the ‘PIPFACTOR’ of 0.10 THEN you’re figures are similar to mine.

Having said that I know that you are aware of the ‘PIPFACTOR’ thing so I’m not sure where you’ve included it in your ASI calculation. I am calculating the ASI EXACTLY as per Wilder and then DIVIDING HIS ASI by MY ‘PIPFACTOR’ and that’s how I’m getting to my ASI values. The 60 points for the TISAR are subtraced from my ‘PASI’ and NOT from HIS (original) ASI and my ‘PASI’ is rounded off to zero decimals.