Good (Monday) morning all!!!
Hey Cody:
Well: all I can say it’s a pleasure and I’m just glad that we found this in time is all!!! I’m tired of saying ‘but it USED to work’!!! LOL!!!
M.
Thank you and same to you. Things are going to be good this year FOR sure!!! I think I’ve done my ‘apprenticeship’ and I’ll do whatever I can to ‘fast track success’ for everyone else!!!
Boca:
‘ELDER SHMELDER’!!! LOL!!! (Only kidding)!!!
Look: as you may or may not have gathered we’re (I’m) at the point where I don’t really care WHAT works as long as it works (and as long as it’s within the ‘Wilder realm’)!!! I’ve had my ‘fun’ ‘tinkering’ and I do believe that we’re at a point (with the Wilder stuff anyway) where there is very little more ‘tinkering’ to be done (although the last time I made a statement similar to this just LOOK what happened)!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: let us know about Elder and his MA’s. If they improve the performance and filter out even more bad trades then why not.
Your observation about trades being of shorter duration is indeed correct. That said: this is only true when a REAL TREND OF NOTE is NOT ‘in place’. What this little ‘fix’ does is shorten the BAD trades i.e. those ‘pesky’ trades that start out with a ‘vengeance’ and keep you ‘holding on’ for DAYS on end only for them to turn on you with the SAME ‘vengeance’ as they started out with and ‘eat your account away’!!! Just remember (and this is to everyone): when you’re looking at these trades (past trades for backtesting) you’re always placing STOP ORDERS. Sometimes it’s difficult when ‘visually’ backtesting because a person tends to look at the highs or the lows and somehow your brain tells you that those are your entry / TP / SAR / exit points. When you’re ‘visually’ backtesting remember that because you’re placing stop orders: a lot of the orders that you place are never executed so while a trade may ‘visually’ appear ‘shortened’ or a ‘loser’ you have to check whether or not you ever ACTUALLY got INTO that trade in the first place or if you ever ACTUALLY were stopped our or had to SAR. I hope that makes sense. (What I’m describing is very similar to ‘The Extreme Point Rule’). A fine example of what I’m taking about is USD/CHF. At FIRST GLANCE it would appear that this DX ‘fix’ ‘took you out’ early between 2008-12-18 and 2008-12-19 but look what ACTUALLY happened i.e. your protective stop / TP was placed ‘a couple of ticks above the high’ of the bar for 2008-12-19 but was never executed and the trade continued on as a ‘normal’ DMS short trade. Yes: you were stopped out on 2009-01-02 because of a protective stop placed on 2008-12-31 ‘a couple of ticks above the high’ of the bar for 2008-12-31 (at a VERY nice profit I might add) and yes the price may or may not continue on down now (although I have my doubts). If it does, however, you have the option to re-enter the trade if the DX turns up now and the oscillator is still red but again: you’d be placing a stop order for this purpose which, if the price now keeps on going up, will never be executed and you will in all probability get a valid ‘standard’ DMS signal to go long WITH the DX risiing (which as far as I can tell are the ‘perfect’ or ‘desired’ entries). I hope this makes a bit of sense.
Which DOES in fact bring me to another point:
With all these possible entries I’ve been trying to think of a way to ‘choose the best’ or ‘rank’ them against each other. The best I can think of so far is to ‘choose’ the ones with the LOWEST DX value (DX must be rising of course). I suppose it would be possible to ‘choose’ the ones with the LOWEST DX value and the HIGHEST ADXR value as well. I shall check to see whether or not there is any merit in either of these ideas. Of course you COULD simply use ‘the shotgun approach’ i.e. place orders for ALL entry signals and, as soon as you reach the limits of our money management rules i.e. as soon as enough orders have been executed, you simply cancel all oustanding (pending) orders. I’ve been known to use THIS method before!!! It’s just not quite as ‘finessed’ as actually trying to ‘choose the best’!!!
By the way: you could have ‘pushed me over with a feather’ this morning!!! I see the Dow Futures ACTUALLY have a green ADX Oscillator bar showing from Friday!!! (OK: ADX is below both the DI’s but still that’s a good sign I hope)!!! I don’t know if any of you know this BUT historically (as far back as 1950 I believe): if the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq close HIGHER in the first five trading days of January then the markets close ‘up’ at the end of the same year and the opposite is true if they close ‘down’ in the first five trading days of January!!! Then again I’m sure you’ve heard the saying that ‘there are lies, damn lies, and statistics’!!! That said: this apparantely has held true 100% of the time since 1950!!! Go figure!!!
Have a LOVELY day (and don’t get dissapointed if you don’t double your accounts today i.e. Monday is NORMALLY a very ‘shi*ty’ day)!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
Edit:
By the way ‘Father Ted’:
I wanted to mention this to you last night but I forgot (tired is all). If you want to see the ‘DX re-entry rules’ ‘in action’ then take a look at USD/RUB. Yes it IS a ‘cherry picked’ example (this pair seems to trend FAR better than ANTHING else on the planet) but it nevertheless makes it easy to see how the ‘mechanicm’ works.