Good (Tuesday) morning everyone!!!
It’s REALLY a good morning is it not!!!
(I’m waiting for Akram to come ‘bounding in with excitement’ as he normally does when things are going this well)!!! It brightens up my day!!! LOL!!!
Hey J.:
Thanks for that. I SHALL take a ‘peek’ at it.
I TOO have been ‘tinkering’ again but I have found nothing of real interest. I’ve tried to see whether it makes any difference if the DX is below BOTH DI’s and I can’t see any advantage of this being a criteria as to whether or not to take a trade. I’ve also drawn the ‘20 line’ on the DX indicator and I cannot see any merit in noting whether or not the DX is above or below the ‘20 line’ either. That said: maybe you can have a look as well at these two possible scenarios to see if they have any impact or not because (AS YOU ALL KNOW) I HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE WRONG AT THE BEST OF TIMES!!! LOL!!!
Oh and BY THE WAY: I’d NOT put money on the fact that Finland has more paid holidays than anywhere else!!! Believe me: we have MORE than our fair share over here!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
By the way (this is for Boca and anyone else who has ‘dabbled’ with John F. Carter’s ‘Squeeze’):
FOR FUN (NOT WILDER!!! NOT INTERESTED!!! DON’T PANIC!!!):
I had a look at what happens with Carter’s ‘Squeeze’ when ‘filtered’ with the ADX Oscillator and the DX indicator (instead of the 12 period momentum indicator that he uses)!!! I’ll tell you this: the ‘combo’ of the ADX Oscillator and the DX indicator is PROBABLY the FINEST INDICATION OF MOMENTUM AND IT’S DIRECTION ‘IN THE LAND’!!!
Just an observation is all!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
I’d NOT put money on the fact that Finland has more paid holidays than anywhere else!!! Believe me: we have MORE than our fair share over here!!!
Here is a link to the statistics I based my claim on (dear Moderators, this is admittedly a bit off the topic, but please let me have this innocent CNN link here to justify my claim, otherwise I would need to copy-paste the information here somehow and in a much uglier presentation):
Having It All: Work-Life Balance - CNN.com - Special Reports
[I]"Feel like you need a break from your job? A really, really long break? Count yourself lucky if you live in Finland then. Finnish workers receive the most of any other country – 44 days off each year (30 vacation days plus 14 holidays), according to a 2007 survey by Mercer Resources, a global human resources firm. [/I]
[I]By comparison, employees in the United States get about 25 days off yearly on average – 15 vacation days and 10 holidays – but time off policy varies widely. Check out how your time off stacks up to others’ around the globe."[/I]
By the way J.:
Have we decided on the FINAL periods to be used???
ADX(7) or ADX(14)???
DX(7) or DX(14)???
ADX(14) and DX(14)??? (This is what I’m using now).
ADX(7) and DX(14)???
ADX(7) and DX(7)???
Just wondering. I can see merit in any or all of the above combinations to be honest. Using DX(7) makes the DX indicator extremely ‘choppy’ though but you can still see the acceleration / deceleration. Maybe DX(7) is better as a ‘scalping tool’???
Again: just some thoughts as they come to mind.
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
LOL!!!
OK: point taken (about the public holidays) although sometimes it ‘feels’ like we have a whole lot more than that!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
ok ok i am here my old CHINA!!! (china=Friend with south African slang!!)
actually i was worried about u for not posting early as usual but yeah things are extremely good this morning!! i remember that happened last month and i will try to follow the DX to the book with out any second guessing again.
I am up this morning again i got yesterday 3 positions opened and they are showing a good profit right now
1-AUD/CHF
2-CAD/JPY
3-CAD/CHF
and to tell u the truth Dale if u were not trying to give GBP/USD a second chance your account balance will seems to be much more profitable than it is already are.
Regards,
Akram
Hello and GOOD MORNING!!!
I’m TIRED man!!! For some or the other reason last night’s ‘work’ seemed to take a ABSOLUTE AGE to finish so I only FINALLY got to bed at around 03h00!!! It was worth it though i.e. EVERYTHING (except GBP/USD!!!) ‘in the green’ and some very nice profits showing.
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
About ADX/DX 7/14:
I’m not sure about these yet. Before we got this refined system in order, my backtesting showed that ADX(7) is better than ADX(14). I’m working on the system to get some backtesting results out of this. This version is a bit trickier than the previous one, though, so it will take a bit more time until I can post any result to answer e.g. this question.
I have e.g. spotted the following: DX tends to have two equal values in a row relatively often. So should we then say that DX is ascending or descending? I have the following candidates to determine that:
a) always ascending in that case
b) look what ADX is doing and conclude from that
c) look what DX was doing one candle back and conclude from that
Right now it seems that © is the best option for this.
Fu*k me!!! I’ve just noticed something: the Dow is ‘nudging’ 9 000 and the DAX is above 5 000 and GBP/JPY is ‘nudging’ a VS SAR!!! COULD we soon be singing: ‘Happy Days Are Here Again …’??? LOL!!!
J.:
I noticed that too i.e. DX having the same values sometimes on two consecutive days. I’ve been treating it as ‘flat’ when it happens i.e. ‘do nothing’ for entry or set the SL but I’ll check your ‘observations’ out.
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
By the way:
I’m following the past ‘stellar’ trades through with keen interest. As of right now: USD/CHF has given back almost 50% of its gains and, to make matters worse, the ADX Oscillator is not ‘firing off’ a SAR signal as yet. In cases like this you can EASILY see where using the DX as per our ‘new’ ‘rules’ would save you LOADS of profit. Also: ADX(7) would at least have ‘fired off’ a SAR signal by now. SOMEWHERE between ‘these two’ there is a ‘one size fits all happy medium’ I believe.
You know what folks:
If I take a look at what’s happened with USD/CHF (and I’ll bet is going to happen with ALL of those other supposed ‘stellar’ trades that have just passed):
I’m starting to ‘think along these lines’:
ADX(7) (ADX Oscillator).
DX(14) (or DX(7) i.e. still undecided).
NO RE-ENTRY!!! In other words: you take your DMS signals ‘as per normal’ (regardless of whether or not DX is rising or falling) and wait. If the DX starts rising and the trade moves in your favor then ‘good for you’ and the moment the DX ‘falters’ or turns down you set your STOP LOSS / TP ORDER. If this order is executed then the trade is ‘FINISH!!! KAPUT!!!’ and you move on to the next instrument / pair / trade where you have ‘normal’ or ‘standard’ DMS entry. This way (as far as I can see) there is ‘little to no’ chance of getting ‘whipsawed’ and believe me: there are MORE than our ‘fair share’ of ‘standard’ or ‘proper’ DMS entry signals to ‘go around’!!! Don’t get me wrong: I’m doing ‘STELLARLY WELL’ at the moment but I just cannot but help get the feeling that ‘RE-ENTRY’ falls squarely into the ‘trying to grab the very last pip’ ‘syndrome’.
WHADDA YA THINK??? J.???
Regards,
Dale. (forebrokersonline.net).
Nah. On second thought: disregard my previous post.
By the looks of things you HAVE to at least TRY to re-enter i.e. by not doing so you miss MORE than a FEW points / pips!!!
I don’t know!!! HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH THE ‘ANALYSIS PARALYSIS’!!!
Still: I suppose it gives me something to do!!! LOL!!! It’s unsettling though!!! It ‘gnaws’ at you ALL THE TIME this ‘what if this and what if that’ ‘syndrome’!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokers-NOT-SO-ONLINE.net).
I think I’m tired. I think I need a swim. I EVEN think I need a drink, a barbeque, and a NightWish!!!
Ok, you managed to make a comment yourself first, but here are my thoughts about the matter anyway. If you have a plenty of fresh trades at hand, then this should be not a problem. But I’m still using that GBP/USD as my test bench, and the downtrend last autumn contains several successful re-entries and no failures, telling me to still consider these re-entries.
That “last pip syndrome” is a great term and it should definitely find its way to medical publications.
Something more to consider:
We are aiming to find and enter nice trends with this system, and we have now means for jumping out of bad trades. But what if a trade gets stuck floating around the entry point? I have browsed through that GBP/USD, and it seems that if you have 4-5 consecutive days where the highs and lows have been on the opposite sides of the entry price, then there is very great probability that the trade will go sour. So you could as well exit the trade at market when the 5th such day closes. If you are on profit then fine, take the profit, or alternatively set SL at BE.
Dale,
stop analyzing your brain is going to stop just go watch and celebrate todays’ winner!!!
I am sure just an advise i can give to the devil and he will follow it but not YOU!!!
ok i think reentering if DX is raising again is great idea but the moment it is rising u will find lots of pairs to choose from the question now is which one should i get and which one should i leave?? as there will be plenty of them and per the money management rule i feel most of the time u will have problem to take them all
may be going back to the book and PICK the best 5 or 6 out there? i don’t know yet i think Dale u r the only one who can tell us after the end of this week if u already got those trades u mentioned with re entering with the raising of DX beginning of the week .
This is the only analysis u need to do other wise u need to watch and celebrate!!!
Regards,
Akram
Gentlemen,
Shall we pop some corks? Alright, I had at least a half a dozen DMS entries last night, and by this morning, all of them had hit the stop order and gone through the roof! Only one position (a lazy TBPS trade) is in a loss right now… let’s just say that if I closed everything out right now, I could ‘call it a month’ with a decent profit (23.5%). And we’re only a week into the month! This is simply spectacular. Now, I’m not under the disillusion that things could retrace some (it’s happened before), but with our new addition, I’m confident that most of this profit would be locked in in case of that. We shall soon see.
In other news: I had a meeting with my ‘investor’ last night, and he’s seen our system work and is interested in starting live trading (with a small account at first). This is very exciting to me; trading as a job (even a second job) has become one of my passions lately (thanks in large part to you fellows). We’re looking into the account opening procedures, and I should be rolling by the end of the month!
Happy Pips,
Cody
Hey J.
Again: nice observation(s). As a matter of interest: is ADX not below BOTH the DI’s in the case that you describe (the ADX Oscillator should be showing the THICK-EST bars although it’s slower to react as we know especially with ADX(14)).
Akram:
Actually: I SHALL take you advice today!!! LOL!!!
Cody:
You and I must be taking the exact same trades because my % gain right now is about the same on average.
What I HAVE done (this may give clarity to one of Akram’s ‘wonderings’): I’ve reduced my lot sizes to WAY under what our money management rules specify so that I can take ALL the signals and even having done this my gains are still the same. In SPITE of GBP/USD: I currently have 13/14 positions open, 4 pending orders, and I’m showing 24% and 31% (I’m ‘creaming it’ on Oil on this account) (and 16% ‘free money’) SINCE FRIDAY i.e. since the BEGINNING OF THIS MONTH. (This ‘method’ i.e. taking all possible signals is also known as ‘Dale’s Shotgun Method’. I used to use it with women with varying degrees of success)!!! LOL!!! Anyway: I’ll probably revert back to ‘normal’ lot sizes once I’m happy with the ‘merits’ of ‘re-entry’ (I’ve no problem with ‘fresh’ DMS entries).
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
ADX needs not necessarily be below both +DI and -DI for this setup. As an example, have a look at GBP/USD, around Dec. 3rd 2008. The stop order was placed on Dec. 1st and it got executed on the 3rd.
Ohh common i don’t think what works for women can work in trading!!!
u need to use another system!!!lol
any ways yes may be when u reduce the positions to half like 1% or may be less for those DX rising positions would allow u to pick every possible positions.
So today is a good day and i hope we can have another boost from the American session let us hope for that!!
The good thing now is that whenever i stay put on the screen doing nothing the positions seems to go against my favor the moment i go and do something else and come back things seems to be pretty good i think i should allow this on the system as well!!!lol
Regards,
Akram
I’m with Akram on this one… When I let the markets do their thing, things go through the roof… then when I start checking too often, they start meandering back the other way. And as to your ‘shotgun method’, I’m all for it. I feel like my personal MM rules give me enough room to open trades on most signals I get, so I just 'let ‘em rip’! Though, I must say, when it comes to ‘women’, I’m strictly a ‘long term’ guy. I married my high school sweetheart (the only girl I ever really dated, to tell the truth) and we’re happy as can be with a 5 month old daughter! And hopefully, this trading will put said daughter through college. 
Happy Pips (really happy today),
Cody
LOL!!!
I’m happy that you’re happy (I’m happy too)!!! LOL!!!
Well just before you form a bad impression: I WANTED to be a ‘long term guy’ ‘when I was small’ but, for better or for worse, things didn’t turn out that way (and I’ll wager the babypips server does not have enough disk space to store the story of my PERSONAL life on it so we won’t bother)!!! LOL!!!
But yes: if you ‘keep your head’, don’t get greedy, don’t overtrade, and just follow these trading systems ESPECIALLY the way we have them working now then not only will this pay for your daughters college education but you can be a BENEFACTOR of the college or better yet just BUY the darn thing!!!
Regards,
Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).
I have my revised DMS indicator now showing the trades and I’m able to get initial backtesting results. To my dismay there are a bit more than expected of those dreaded whipsaws that eat up a bit too much from the profits when traded in the way discussed here. Feb - Apr 2008 for GBP/USD is a good example of this: almost all trades lose with ADX(7) in that period.
The GOOD NEWS is that there seems to be a really simple way to get rid of most of these losses:
Once you are in a trade which is doomed to be a bad one (but you don’t know it yet), look for the first downturn of DX. If that happens and you are on loss, place TP at break-even. If you are on profit, place the TP there as well. If the TP doesn’t get hit, then follow the standard exiting rules. If on big loss already (say >100 pips with the common pairs), then you should exit at market.
Doing it this way removes the need for calculating the number of days that oscillate around BE and then exiting around day 5.
For a downturn of DX it suffices to have two consequtive equal values, even if DX was ascending before that. I’ve changed my opinion from my earlier post on this.
I have gone through GBP/USD from the start of 2005, and this seems to work well. It took 6 losing trades out of 10 to BE, and reduced the other losses a bit. The total impact in this period of time can be even a couple of thousands of pips, but I need to calculate this a bit more. There were some winning trades that were exited prematurely with this method, but a possibility for re-entry always emerged for them very soon.
One more detail: If you are on loss and the ADX oscillator changes its colour, better exit on market.
By the way, I’m using DX(7) now. I haven’t noticed any significant difference between DX(7) and DX(14).
J.