Trading The Higher Time Frames

SanJ,

Thanks again for making this thread. Your methods seem to be the actions of what’s in my head about how I’d approach this. The plotting of areas you’d take action is a great idea that I’ll incorporate myself as well.

One question, for anyone that follows ICT really, is it normal to enter trades at OTE at a lower level or is this just SanJ’s desired method? I don’t recall seeing this in a video. I like the idea as well but was wondering if I missed something. If you were going to make a trade at OTE off of a 4 or 1 hour, is it best practice to go to 15 or 5 min to find another OTE to enter? If so, do you not enter the trades if the OTE doesn’t happen at the lower level?

Sorry for the questions if they are a bit naive.

EJ

Hey BostonEJ - thanks for chiming in :slight_smile:

Personally, im not quite sure if its a normal thing to go in on the lower time frames too but i have my reasons for it. I have liked and had quite a good amount of success using ‘nested OTE’s’ - meaning OTE’s within OTE…

The thing about most the concepts ICT has shared is that they can be applied to many pairs and many time frames. I like and probably my only method of entry into a trade is through OTE. I understand all the relfection pattern etc, but i prefer the OTE as it gives me a way to scale down and limit my risk per trade - as we are taught our stop should be placed 10 pips below the low of which we draw our Fib retracement…

Now if my plan here is to trade off the higher timeframes, the OTE entry (depending on the timeframe) can alone be sometimes 30+ pips. That generally makes it impossible to put your stop 10 pips below the low as 30 pips is my maximum stop size i am willing to use…

Finding a OTE on the 5m time frame allows me to place a trade within my 30 pip SL limit and risk the same % of my account.

The ideal trade would be to highlight an OTE area on a monthly chart, within that monthly OTE to find an OTE on a daily or 4H chart, and then within that area find an OTE on a 15m or 5m chart. This allows you to potentially capture huge swings using a small SL and therefore maximizing profits…

Ideally, i’d love for most trades here to go for 100+ pips, it would be an aim for most trades here and it’s what i look to capture… Anyway like i said, this is my personal experiment to see how much success i can have this way as really the intra-day stuff wasnt giving me the consistency i like. I now stick to only looking at two currencies - the cable and the fiber, and must patiently wait for my setups to unfold. I think this is the key for me here, patience!

But overall, yes if i dont get my smaller time frame OTE within the HTF OTE, i do not enter, go back a few pages and you’ll see a trade i highlighted earlier into the week, i was stalking a smaller OTE which never happened, and it raced off for i believe over 100+ pips… But according to the criteria in which i want to trade, if i must miss opportunities because a trade does not match my risk requirements, then so be it…

:57:

So i took my official first loss today, and as always with my luck, i tend to go through a few string of winners and my first loss will be when i scale back up to my 2% risk per trade. Been like this for ages!

I jumped in on the trade i had highlighted earlier as i felt i had enough confluences in my favour… The smaller timeframe OTE was initially blown through but i thought it would be covered with my SL… We fell into range then formed a bear flag and really continued to fall out of bed blowing on my stop… Sucks i guess as it means i finished the week in -%

Reflecting on the trade i took, i feel the only thing i could have done different was stuck to a higher time frame chart, the way the cable has been trading the last few days meant there were several swings in which would have created OTE’s on the higher time frame, the dilemma is deciding which one to use where we will get our bounce!

To be quite honest, i felt i had more than enough confluences in my favour for today’s trade which was a 2% loss, my criteria were ticked and if i saw that same setup next week, i would trade it exactly the same way. I feel in this market, we have to be able to accept the fact that sometimes we can do everything right - but still make a loss. If i can’t accept that i dont think i will make it as far as i would like to get in this business…

Anyway just sharing some thoughts :slight_smile:

Risk being scaled back to 1% and done for the week obviously, back next week for another turn on the battlefield…

Btw, my 1/4 size position is still running, todays action hasnt taken me out. Im locked break even +1 at 1.5594 i believe, im going to let it run to either my stop at break even, or go back up to my final TP…

Week 1:
2 Trades - 1 Win, 1 Loss
Ending -0.2%

:57:

Also took The Same trade, didn’t work out als expected :slight_smile:
When I look at it now it’s obvious why it failed, but I would like to see this beforehand :slight_smile:

Well another week at the markets…

I actually had a busy weekend and didn’t get my analysis in before this morning, so i wasn’t prepared to trade this morning… So i slept in a little and did my analysis in time for NYO, but to be honest i dont see a trade in the works for me today…

According to my criteria, market flow is now bearish on both the 4H and the Daily charts - this means my bullish bias is now void for the moment as i only like to trade when market flow and market structure are aligned with one another…

As we know, the cable and fiber both had a significant sell off from Friday and a continuation into Monday. I may be sitting on the sidelines until i get a clearer picture of what i think may be going on… The main reason i am choosing to sit out is i think there is uncertainty in the market, in my opinion we could get a bounce back up, or a continuation back down. I dont want to trade when things seem tricky - i only want to trade the ‘no brainer’ setups…

What im currently watching for is this…

Fiber and Cable Divergence:


As noted above, the fiber on the left has continued to drop off making lower lows - this is not represented in the cable. This makes me believe we could be seeing accumilation of positions taking place in the cable - this buying of position is what is not allowing the cable to make the same lower lows…

Also, Cable 4H:


If what i have highlighted above is so stand true, i will be looking for a bounce in one of these larger OTE areas… The first pink box which price is nearing is and OTE from the recent domininant price swing shown by the two closer arrows… The larger pink OTE area is a larger price swing drawn from the wider two arrows… We could possibly be looking for a run of the 12th July lows to take out stops, and then a continuation higher as this will all be within the OTE area…

I will be sitting on my hands to see if we get a bounce in these areas - then once we get some confirmation of bullish action again ill be looking for my entries. On the flip side, if we get a strong break of the OTE areas, ill be changing my bias to the short side and looking for selling opportunities…

The purple line i have noted in the chart is the price level the cable will need to break below in order to get back in sync with the Fiber, as you can see this is a long 270 pips away - a bounce is definitely possible in this time. But i will not let my long bias sway my decision, “Trade what you see, not what you think”

I must be patient and wait for a setup to unfold that suits my liking…

:57:

Quick update for today…

As i mentioned earlier, haven’t been looking to trade today…

4H Cable:


Same Chart without the pink box for clarity:


We have currently had a bounce in the first highlighted OTE area… Its not a huge bounce back out yet but we have some initial rejection from the area. There was a 5m OTE for the long in the LC kill zone - which actually fit my criteria, but as market structure and market flow and not in alignment as i like, i did not trade it.

The 4H candle has closed as a nice pinbar. I’m no expert on pure price action trading, but candle stick patterns on a higher time frame are far stronger than a lower time frame. I see this as a rejection from the 1.548 institutional level (and weekly S1) The pin bar out of the watched area and support level makes me think we could see a push higher in price. But i will be looking for confirmation of this during the week before even beginning to look for entries…

:57:

Here is a small trade I took today on the Cable.
Cable Nesting OTEs 4hr,1hr,5m
Bullish SMT div. between Cable Fiber
At the 1.5500 figure
overlapping with SM1

Took everything off at 34 pips. Things just a bit too shaky to let run today. Good thing in ran up a bit to the 500 fig then dropped.



For those that monitor SMT div. on HTFs.

AUDUSD and the NZDUSD are currently in a Bullish SMT div. on the 4hr With the AUDUSD approching an OTE with the 1.02000 fig. laying right on top of the sweet spot. I will be keeping an eye on a possible judas to the fig tonight.

SanJ, I hope you don’t mind me discussing other pairs. If you would like to keep the thread exclusive to the Cable and Fiber I understand.

.

Looks beautiful :slight_smile:
Exactly the type of trades i look to go for… The only reason im still sidelines this week is because market structure and market flow are currently indicating bearish action. I was looking for the bounce today in the exact trade you took, after we showed confirmation of bulls taking charge then I’d be ready to jump in…
As per my criteria, i only want to trade the direction of the HTF - so i would have viewed today’s trade as a scalp - and i think closing at 34 pips most would agree… But trade well done indeed :slight_smile:

Feel free to discuss my friend… It may catch the attention of some others who maybe lurking or stumbling across… I initially only started this online to keep a transparent trading journal for myself - i didn’t expect as many watchers as i have received. So by all means, the more the merrier :smiley:

Have yet to post today as i’ve still been flat… The lack of bullish action today is swaying me a little towards riding the bulls this week - im thinking the cable could be looking to retest the low made on July 12th…

Im waiting for markets to consolidate a bit more and will post what im looking for late tonight or early tomorrow…

:57:

Just took a -1% hit today, and to be honest, cant blame anybody except myself…

Was looking for a short on the fiber:


Took a 5min OTE entry within that area which was quickly blown out and my stop was taken for just under a 1% loss…

If im going to be honest, my entry criteria wasn’t met as nicely as i would have liked, but i think the fact id been flat all week so far had got to me and i let it get the best of me… Trading this approach looking at only two pairs, and given my criteria of what i would like to line up is quite strict, i will not get many trades, and may spend some days and weeks flat waiting for things to line up. I guess patience is something i need more work on.

Overall i decided to actually jump into the trade without my perfect criteria lining up as we also formed a nice pinbar on the 1H showing initial rejection from the OTE area… However, the main thing i was missing from this trade is a key level… Price action and candle stick patterns can be powerful but only when combined with higher time frame support and resistance…

Anyway, another lesson for the books. May be the only / last trade i end up taking this week / month - off to Singapore this Friday for a two week holiday so unlikely ill get to trade much.

Oh and next trade will be reduced back to 0.5% risk - as per my risk management plan…

:57:

Ah, feels like its been forever since ive logged on and posted… Had a great two weeks break away from trading and my charts. I must admit i did some chart watching near the start but allowed myself to forget about it in the final week. Was my first real break away since starting to get into this, felt good but im glad to be back nonetheless…

Anyway, the holiday is the reason for my long absence here, will catch up on all the threads and what ive missed on the market this coming weekend and will get back to normal business as of Monday

:57:

It’s good to have you back brother! :smiley: I hope you’ve made the most of your holiday, because the pips are ripe for the harvest :wink:

Let’s make some withdrawals from the market next week bro :wink:

Glad to hear from you PM!

Yes, ive actually missed watching the markets, looking forward to getting back to the routine this week. Preparing my last few weeks of demo and then will get the live account rolling from September :smiley:

My analysis for the coming week to follow!..

Ah, first week back on the battlefield!

So, just an update on a couple small changes ive made to how ill be trading here. Ill still of course be focusing on the higher time frames, but will mainly only be looking at larger OTE’s on a 4H and Daily charts (dont really want to look at the 1H for entry areas anymore). Also, in terms of entry criteria, im going to be a bit more lenient in terms of the 4H market flow. As long as my trades match the direction of the Daily market flow direction, it will be enough to take a trade. The 4H is more easily changed and i think can be used more effectively for scalping premise - not something im looking to focus on here at the moment… Finally, when looking at overbought and oversold on my stochastic, ill be looking at confirmation on a 4H chart instead of a 1H premise. Other than that, everything will stay the same…

So had a 2 week break outside of the market where i did no trading and spent 1 of the weeks not even looking at any charts. Was a good break away but glad to be back in my trading seat and watching for my opportunities…
This will be my last official month of demo trading, after this ill be looking to fund a live account from September and really get this show on the road. Think its time i started to get a taste of real money trading as i feel my self slipping into a comfort zone of knowing now that my account is still just paper money. My whole purpose of the demo was to gain some ground work and basic knowledge of the markets before putting real money at steak and i feel i have definitely got good ground work beneath me to get going - Updates on the live account will come soon followed by a new Myfxbook link :slight_smile:

Ok so as for the market this coming week, many of my noted support and resistance levels have remained the same since first starting my thread, and also so has my higher time frame directional premise. I am still bullish in the market and will concentrate on mainly looking for long entries upon pull backs in price.

Fiber:



Just like before - the blue areas are the higher time frame OTE areas produced from the 4H time frame upwards… I have started just plotting zones from various price swings so i can get a wider term outlook on long and short entries, and when we could expect a change in tide from the current trend.

Cable:



As shown above, Cable is currently operating inside a 4H OTE, so it wouldnt surprise me to see some bearish action going into this week. Id like to see the bulls press the cable above the 5780 level soon to continue with this upward momentum…

Ideally, id like to take my trades in the cable as i think it will provide me with better buying opportunities. Both pairs are posting upward channels with confluence of higher highs and higher lows which show the bulls are going strong still…

In terms of my general mindset, a couple things i want to always keep in mind when trading is to not let my bias sway what is in front of me on the charts - i think i have let this get the better of me before and lost me pips. Regardless of how good my analysis may be, the market will always be right. I need to learn to not be afraid to admit im wrong.

Also, before taking trades now, not only will i be looking for my entry criteria to be matched, but id like to start looking at things from the other side of the table - in the sense that if i am looking for a long entry at a certain level, before taking the trade i will look to see that if i was a bear, is there anything at that moment that would sway me to go short? Naturally, id prefer to see only signals to go in my desired direction. But im hoping this neutral perspective will allow me to spot bad trades and help keep me out of them.

Anyway, rambled on enough! Price is currently too high for me to want to get in - smart money buys low and sells high - thats what i want to be doing… Ill be waiting for some pull backs in price for an entry, otherwise ill be flat all week…

Updates to come

:57:

Ok so just a quick mid week update… Still no trades or opportunities as of yet…

I guess only really focusing on two pairs and having what i think is quite a strict entry criteria will mean my opportunities to trade wont actually happen that often, so patience is a big factor here… Been keeping myself busy this week so far with other things and just setting price alerts to notify me if anything interesting has been happening… But markets have really bored me thus far…

Been following and basically updating my possible OTE areas on my charts to see where i could possible spot on entry…

Today we are approaching the area’s of oversold on the 4H Stochastics on both the cable and fiber:


Of course, this is only one of my criteria being met, ill be watching for a move down into a higher time frame OTE which ive picked a few possible zones on each the cable and fiber:
Fiber Left
Cable Right


If price moves down into one of the likely OTE’s ive pointed at on my charts, ill be ensuring we are still oversold, check pivot zones, look for divergences, and i already know market structure and market flow are in sync with the higher time frame, so as long as i have the majority of these ticked ill have the green light to look for a smaller 5m OTE into the trade…

Could possibly be a NYO trade or LC today…

Will update soon!

:57:

I’m liking those entries bro!

Well, lets hope so bro… Took an entry on the Fiber:


Price entered an anticipated area… So i zoomed in and took a smaller entry on a 5m OTE:


So reasons for the trade:

  • In line with higher time frame bullish trend…
  • Nested OTE from the 4H down to a 5m
  • Oversold 4H Stochastic + type 2 bullish divergence (stochastic making lower low, price failed to)
  • Pivot Buy zone
  • Trinity Buy Zone
  • OTE was at the 80 inst level, plus todays MS2…

Definitely enough criteria to take a trade, will update later on how the trade is going

:57:

EDIT: Oh and also, still running reduced risk from previous losses a few weeks ago… Trade lot size was equal to 0.5% of my account…

Still in the trade… Not working out as well as i had initially planned… The 4H close candle didnt close as nice as i would have liked, and also im aware the cable - the correlated pair is currently still working a HTF OTE short… Couple things against me i guess…

But the ICT Grail pattern on the 4H is keeping me in… Hoping it will pay off!


I took the Cable long because it was not making the lower lows as the fiber. Currently at BE. GL

Nice bro! Should have known better really, the amount ive ranted about taking the pair which is failing to make the lower low / higher high… The only reason i stayed out of the cable is because the HTF OTE its laying in is for the short The OTE you took is too intraday for my plan… I would have preferred an entry in the cable but i played it as it came i guess, see what happens!

It came dangerously close to my stop at one point - only kept a 20 pip stop, but managed to stay in for now…

Leaving it open still, see if the NY session will bring anything…