We must have missed something SanJ. i just cant figure out what it is lol.
Flat for the week it looks like. Just wanted to throw this in as think this will be extra fuel to the fire of my suspected change in tide…
Fiber Left
USDx Middle
Cable Right
Comparable highs draw by the red lines showing major USDx and SMT divergences on the higher time frame…
The cable made a higher high - while at the same time the fiber failed to make the same higher high
The USDx has not actually broken this low yet, came extremely close today but looks like it should take it out, once it breaks it, USDx would have made a lower low - Fiber will not match this with a comparable higher high…
As we stand, it looks like fiber will be the better pair to look for shorts, Ill be on the look out for a confirmation swing high in the Fiber and swing low in the USDx and then start preparing my scope for short entries to ride this down…
Just wanted to throw in a quick update as i had some time on the weekend. Been a little busy out and about this week and havent had as much time to update the thread as i was going along… There was a couple things i wanted to update - firstly, i think my final bit of tweaking to my plan for now (as advised i should stop tweaking until i get a solid set of results). So my two changes to my plan are to go back to looking at 1H OTE’s (as hinted by ICT they could be extremely profitable - i didnt want to exclude them before giving them a real go). Also, depending on the time frame i draw the OTE area from, i will look to confirm that with the same time frame stochastic - ie, a 1hour drawn OTE, concentrate on the 1H stochastic overbought / oversold…
I actually managed to get a trade on this week, granted it was a Friday but the setup seemed to match all my given criteria so i took it, and it turned out a winner. Decided to hold through the weekend as my bias still remains bullish which i will explain later on. Actually would have been a great intraday trade but decided to hold for what my analysis is telling me.
So the trade i took was long Fiber @ 1.2490
So this was the 1H OTE setup i concentrated on from the HTF. Once i saw price entered this area i checked for other confluences to see if it could be a valid trade. So some of the other reasons which met my criteria:
-
In line with HTF premise so far - bullish - in line with current market structure and market flow of the daily and 4H
-
Pivot Buy Zone
-
1H oversold stochastic + type 2 bullish divergence (ICT Grail setup)
-
Also, although the day so far looked very bearish - dropping since LO, i anticipated a NY market reversal as we had reached its daily ADR (83 pips that day) - and we entered a HTF OTE… Also (admittedly something i found after placing my limit order which helped my confidence for a bounce in this area), shorter term market structure, measuring the nearest swing down fulfilled its 200 extension and its ADR at an institutional level 1.2480:
Once my criteria had been met on these basis, i zoomed in to a 5m chart to look for a 5m smaller OTE within the area for a trade meeting my risk parameters of a maximum 30 pip stop:
I placed a limit order at the small round number 1.249 with a 20 pip stop, which quickly took me into profit once i was triggered in (always the sign of a good trade). It was a small position only risking 0.5% due to previous losses… Closed 50% of my position at +25 pips and have the rest locked at BE - holding for a final swing target of 1.2590:
Quite a small profit target on this trade as i feel we may be coming to an end of this bullish trend and i caught on quite late. Although the fiber has already come quite close to this target, i feel we may push up and test the 1.26 figure, hence i left the remainder of my position at BE… Price came quite a stretch back down on Friday so there is a chance i may get taken out at BE…
Although Fiber is in its HTF OTE which i am anticipating a take over from the bears at this point… Im looking for confirmation of this first before my bias changes to shorts. Cable is still yet to push into its OTE and the USDx i feel may come down a little further (shown in previous posts)…
As always, time will tell… Will update later this week with trade results - Essay over! lol
:57:
Nice thread! Just looked at zour last setup and it looks solid. Will be following with interest.
GL!
Nice to you have following bro 
Just to update, last trade the remaining 50% was stopped out at break even +1 pip… Didn’t really work out to plan…
Markets have since been trading down, but im not fulled convinced this is our change in tide, think we still have one more leg up for the bulls before shifting over - as always time will tell…
Had a setup playout today which im still in - Long Cable 1.577
Reasons:
- Nested OTE
- Pivot Buy Zone
- Oversold Stochastic + ICT Grail
- In line with daily market flow and market structure
- Key HTF Support Level
Price traded down into this higher time frame OTE during the asian range… During this point we had a 4H oversold reading plus an ICT grail… So zoomed in for a LO 5m OTE to fit my risk parameters.
The smaller time frame OTE had a key level laying within it - previous months high which i mark up on my charts. Chose my entry at the small round number 1.577 and it was filled just at the end of the kill zone and quickly taken into profit…
The Fiber looked like the better buy as short term it was failing to make the lower lows. It since took off significantly more than the cable creating higher highs which the cable failed too… This made me a little unsure about my trade… As per my rules, even though i am going for the 100+ pip hauls, i like my trades to be able to at least achieve a 1:1 R:R - so as i used a 30 pip stop here, i want at least 30 pips for my first TP. It came within a pip of this and dropped down which is unfortunate to say the least!
As Fiber is currently working against me, if i was bearish i’d actually be going short fiber as it looks quite a nice setup…
Cable on the shorter term has broke its market structure to the up side:
This break to me indicates bullish action and i have moved my stop to break even before taking my first profit…
Not really sure which way the markets are set to go today, but ive got no risk on the table so will either get stopped at break even or take first profit (its looking like break even result atm)
Will post all results at the end of the week…
Live account being sorted out this week - should be up and running for September!
:57:
excellent trade sanj hope it pays off for the patience you have shown here. Great job thus far man
Just a quick update, the last trade i posted didnt reach its second profit taking objective, was taken out at break even (to the pip!) and shot back my way. Was frustrating as on Thursday the trade reached +100 pip profit - i reluctantly held on and was looking for a higher level to take profits and got stopped at break even. Learned my lesson and know what i did wrong, should have learned and applied a thing or two from the inside the range webinar!
Anyway just wanted to update an overall summary since starting to trade this method:
So overall:
6 Trades
3 Winner - +4.98%
2 Losses - -2.97%
1 Break even - +0.06%
Net Profit: +2.07%
Nothing substantial after 6 weeks of starting the thread. But to be fair, i was away on holiday for 2 weeks, and missed some good opportunities to catch longer term trends. This is where i hope my way of trading will shine, when i can really catch a trend at a good entry and hold for many hundreds of pips! Bring on September…
The live account is officially up, had a couple problems with its funding but hoping it will be online early next week. Will update with a live fresh myfxbook link 
Have a good weekend
:57:
Nice bro - I am seriously looking forward to following your progress 
It’s time to get down to business from Monday bro. Let’s rake in money like there’s no tomorrow! 
All for one and one for all!
Oh, are you using Oanda bro?
Yup yup!
Only starting with a small account - probably around £200/250, and Oanda offer the best control in terms of risk with smaller accounts. Will let me control to the penny what amount of my account im risking…
Well, kicked off with the live account today… and ended in a loss! Curse of the 2% strikes again…
Having a couple problems getting it linked with myfxbook - keep getting an error message, will work on getting it fixed and out in due course…
Little busy this week, so will update with the trade maybe a little later… Didnt take a full 2% loss as i scaled back as i saw it wasnt going my way…
Little demoralizing taking the first trade of the live account as a loss, but it happens… Probably out for the rest of this week too…
Will update later :57:
I think every time I have ever tweaked my approach, made any change at all, be it to the strat, the hours I trade, the risk taken, whatever, I have opened with a loss. It has become a running joke with Mrs Templar. I don’t know what it is, whether I am subconciously trading badly, or just bad luck, whatever, but it has happened so often that we now expect it. It has always worked out well over the long haul, so now I’d almost be more worried if I opened with a profit!
ST
Lol!
Well i just hope i can follow in your foot steps and have things work out in the long haul then. Was just taking a sulk that the first trade had to be a loss, bet it happens… Im aiming for monthly positive probability, so as long as i can finish with some nice positive numbers, im happy!
Link has been updated on my first post with my new live myfxbook account for y’all to follow if you wish - a lot of red at the moment, havent seen it look this bad in a while! lol
Ok so today’s setup i was actually looking for turned out to be a loss for me. I did get the direction right, and its taken off my way, but seems my entry was too shabby!
Entered Fiber long 1.2524, 20 pip SL which i thought may cover it…
Reasons:
- LO Kill Zone
- In line with daily market flow and daily market structure
- Nested OTE on the HTF
- Pivot buy zone
- Oversold Stoch + Type 2 Divergence (grail setup)
Weekly high to low for the higher time frame OTE area. Plus the noted type 2 divergence with the stochastic - The ICT Holy Grail
Zoomed in for a 5m entry:
Hope its clear enough to see the the smaller black area in which was the nested OTE entry area. Also had a nice confluence of the 1.252 support level…
Price tagged me in and initially took off putting me 10 pips in profit, and then fell out of bed to the down side. Once it had broken down a significant amount, i closed half of my position at a loss to save taking the full 2% loss. The other position was pretty much stopped out and ended all in all for a -1.55%.
Using a larger SL could have kept me in the trade, but i felt it would have been enough as it was over 10 pips below the initial smaller OTE i drew inside…
I have recently been trying to look at market structure in more detail on the higher time frame and lower time frames… Something which i should have noted today which could have kept me out of my initial entry…
Fiber failed to break this short term swing high on the 5m chart keeping market structure bearish - higher lows and lower lows. If this swing was broken it would have given us a swing high and would have been more ground for a bounce in the OTE area…
Have to be content i got the direction right at least. Im hoping this will be one of few losses!
Reducing risk down to 1% even though i didnt take the full 2% loss…
Onto the next setup - although likely to be flat til next week with NFP this Friday…
:57:
Just thought I’d pop my head in and say good luck with the live account Sanj. Keep the faith and keep learning and I’m sure you will be fine mate.
Appreciate the best wishes HoG…
Live account could have kicked off with a little better start but cant win em all i guess, as long as i turn out to be right more than im wrong, im fine with that
Just thought id wrap up the week and say im pretty much done. NFP tomorrow which i try to stay out of so leaves me reloading for next weeks action now…
Kind of disappointed the account didnt go off with a nice trade, but im sure ill get over it! lol
Was on the scope for other potential setups this week, but personally just didnt really like the looks of anything - nothing that fit my plan anyway…
So as per my new live account:
1 Trade
1 Loss
Net Profit: -1.55%
Catch y’all next week :57:
Been a bit quiet as of recently as no trade setups - ok i take that back, there have been plenty of profitable setups but none that have really fit my liking…
There was a nice retracement down on the cable on monday, but nothing that provided me with a smaller OTE to get in on the move so really missed the boat on that one. This week seems very one sided at the moment so not sure ill really get a trade at all - really testing the patience this week!
A few things ive been looking out for, firstly in the USDx, my chart setup had been like this:
If price continues to make a strong breach of this OTE, ill be looking at OTE zones from levels on the downside:
As shown in the picture, a strong enough leg down, we could possibly be trying to gun out the level of noted lows as there is likely a big pocket of stops there…
A level im really interested in watching in the cable is between the 1.618 / 1.62 - big convergence of fib levels at this point:
Anyway, as i said, looks likely ill be sidelines the rest of this week. Patience has to come into play here, got to wait it out till i find a setup that matches my criteria to my liking.
Will post soon when i have more updates! :57:
Just to add, even though the strategy i am trading has very little setups - if my setup entry last week had been a little better and i had stayed in for the move - as of today i would have been up over 400 pips…
With a maximum 30 pip SL, thats a risk:reward of over 1:10… Could easily meet my monthly target in a single trade like that - and those are the setups i am after!
Trying to keep this in mind as kind of motivation for me to stay out and wait for these setups as i know the payout is big!
… Patience Pays
:57:
Hi Sanj, Appreciate the charts you just posted. I’ll be following your thread keenly.
I’ve got two questions in the mean time. How do you identify market structure/flow on the HTF and secondly what indi do you use which draws up the buy and sell zones?
Thanks
Hey Aesthetic
Thanks for following along…
Have a look at these two posts i made in ICT’s millionaire guild about some of my thoughts and outlooks on market structure and market flow - hopefully they will answer your question. In a nutshell, im identifying and looking at swing highs and swing lows on the higher time frame. In a bullish market i expect to see higher highs and higher lows, and a bearish market i expect lower highs and lower lows. I watch for key breaks in market structure and market flow on higher time frames for a general bias - looking at this while asking 3 important questions:
- Where is price
- Where is price coming from
- Where is price headed to
Watching my charts i look at and analyze on the higher time frame, but to actually pick my entry i use the 5m/15m charts - these are the only real times i use a buy and sell zone.
I construct these zones in a simple manner by simply throwing up a daily pivot indicator on MT4. Anything above the central pivot is on the sell zone, and anything below is in the buy zone.
The other buy and sell areas which ICT teaches are to do with the Asian Range. A buy in price should be looked for at the top of the Asian range and below, and inversely, a sell should be looked for at the bottom of the Asian range and above…
Hope this helps
:57: