Kiwi 1 hr from chart above(tradeinterceptor was not allowing me to get the timeframe on the 30min)
Nice and simple - I like it. So the 100ma running just above the bottom trendline became a point of entry for a long. The 200ma coming through the channel defined the bottom for kiwis run up today. Will you be placing a copy of your trendline on top to define the channel to see if the pair slips back into it - or for support(I put it in to see how it would line up - sorry took some liberties)
I typically do not put much thought towards trend lines on peaks for up trends, or trend lines on troughs for down trends… In this case however, I am taking notice because chinas PMI is being released in 40 mins and if it is low, then the top trend line would be confirmation of a short entry
Well looking at it closer the price has moved to far past the top trend line to be used as confirmation, depending on what price does after PMI release, it could be used as a point where I would move my SL to BE. After this release, If I do not trade it, I would not consider the top trend line to be reliably significant.
Also, you have your 100 and 200 moving averages set to triangular… I had mine in my charts to be simple moving averages, not that you cannot use triangular, in this case triangular would have been better, but there is a little bit of difference.
PMI came in low as I expected, AUD was at resistance… large move down I already closed at 20 pips +
Yup!.. If I had shorted NZD instead of AUD I would be moving SL to break even now as it has hit the top trendline.
P.S. I had started trailing an entry short, 5 pips under the price at 15 mins before news release on the AUD.
This is why I chose AUD, it was smack dab on a significant level of resistance coming into a major news release.
Okay - that was really astute of you - your hired - I watch for the shorter time frame moves, but really need someone to post the support and resist and point out some of the greater risk events, like you did…oh, I mean would you be possibly able to post some charts and give a heads up to risk events now and then, it would be helpful…think about it, I am just about done for the day. Nice talking and nice trading.
Ha… I spose. Take me motorcrossing and we will call it even…
S&P 500 10 min
Good, glad you took your time to think about it and just so you know the bike is on me more then I am on it - and for interest, back to the charts - thought the S&P was going to choke but recovered - U/Cad still on the slide
Euro 10 min - trying to maintain its support at 1.2545 the 75 ma - indicators starting to cross over
S&P 500 below the green 4hr ma - first time in 3 weeks. U/Cad quietly creeping up, surprisingly euro, aussie and swiss are still at their present levels
S&P500 on the 2hr, with indicator cross below 75ma and challenging 1400point and possibly 1393 the 8hr 75ma
Aussie 10 min - failed to find support with the prev bottom this am - below the indicators and well below the 75ma
Here is the NZDUSD pair again… The price is approaching the trendline now, also there is a significant horizontal level of support AND the hourly 200 sma is converging in on the area… Nice little trifecta of confluent supporting factors. The horizontal level of support is also a round number at .8100, even better.
We have RBA’s governor speaking in about an hour which could move the price of this pair… I would be watching price closely if it hits this area…
I suspect it likely that the price will hit the 100 sma (red) following RBA’s speech, then bounce up for a bit before testing our support area maybe sometime tomorrow or early next week.
Ideally for a long, I would like to see nothing too negative from the RBA speech today… And then for, price too hit the area sometime tomorrow morning after a reaction to the US core durable goods order release. If price doesn’t hit until some time mid next week I will not be looking for a long, but rather wait and see if a trend break develops.
Hey Banker - nice chart. I have been thinking about these currencies positions - the Aussie flirting with its low, Euro at top of daily trend, Swiss carving a rounded bottom and like you said the kiwi looking at its support again. So using one of the left of field methods drew up the S&P put some trendlines, your averages, plus a time series and hull on the weekly - alittle clunky - however appears S&P is in its downtrend in the channel - so maybe one could say that U/Cad has a stronger possibility of maintaining its uptrend till S&P completes this leg. U/Cad chart below