I have never tried using the BabyPips calender - you might try it by refreshing the calender page at the moment of the news report.
Okay. So what DO you use?
Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory
It’s pretty popular also. There’s not much point trying to use it to get a jump right on a news release as you’re up against big players who have the numbers long before you get it by hitting refresh. Spreads will have blown out also right at the moment of any big release so you’re better off taking a position shortly after the release.
You should also be aware that speculators sometimes may drive a price in an unexpected way immediately following a release to run some weak stops before pushing it in the direction that you’d anticipate from the data. Today with E/U would be an example where it dropped quickly after the good ISM numbers as speculators flushed out the weak longs under 1.4450 before quickly reversing course and heading on up towards 1.45 which is where you’d initially have expected it to go as a “risk on” environment was generated.
The same Calender as PipBandit is talking about.
ssnvet, I enjoyed reading your point of view on trading the news. Sounds more than plausible and after all, it’s always down to figuring out the odds, which makes a trade successful.
Can you just clarify something for me, please?
There are news items every single day. Even if you just trade one pair, that’s two currencies’ worth of news releases. I’m assuming you’re only trading the ones with high impact, but even so, which ones would you say move currencies most? The Forex Factory calendar must have about 20 or so ‘red factory icons’ (i.e strong impact) throughout the month, and that’s just USD, probably a similar number for the second in the pair.
There are 6 countries whose economic news releases I watch and have traded currently - there were a few more when I first started, but dropped for different reasons.
I monitor and trade the following:
The European - the U.K. - the US - Canada - Australia - and New Zealand.
As follows:
EUR - German Factory Orders MoM
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment
GBP - Consumer Price Index YoY
- Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
USD - Non Farm Employment Change
- Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales
- Existing Home Sales
- New Home Sales
- Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders
- CB Consumer Confidence report (Conference Board, Inc.)
- ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
- ADP Non Farm Employment Change (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.)
CAD - Building Permits
- IVEY Purchasing Managers Index (IVEY School of Business)
- Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
AUD - Gross Domestic Product QoQ
- Retail sales and Core Retail Sales
- Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
NZD - Retail Sales and Core Retail Sals
When there are 2 related reports being released at the same time - such as Core retail Sales and Retail Sales - if they are in conflict, I will normally pass a trade by.
Wow, that’s a lot! Must keep you busy 
Not that I’m asking you to divulge all of your secrets, but I’m curious - which pairs do you trade when there’s only one item of news out in a day. I’m assuming that if two countries’ news items come out on the same day and that one is bearish on one currency and the other bullish on the other currency, then by the ‘double-whammy’ effect - that would be a pair to trade in the obvious direction. But if, say you just have the German Factory Orders out and nothing else is due that day - would you trade the EUR/USD or go for other crosses such as GBP or JPY? Likewise for all other currencies - is the default trading the dollar crosses?
Thanks for sharing and good luck! Looks like you’ve honed your system down quite well.
Those are good questions - I have found, for the most part, that short term trades during a news release are not affected by other daily news reports - since I try to get in and out within a few minutes. Long term may be different.
I have been keeping records of currency charts related to each of the news reports I monitor - for the last 3 or 4 years. Over time, a pattern has shown up for each news report set of related currency pairs and some unrelated pairs.
I found that the only time there will be a problem is when 2 related news reports are within a half hour of each other.
Traders appear to prepare for a high impact news report 6 or 7 minutes before the report release - most do not want to get caught up in an unknown.
The German Factory Orders release is coming out Wednesday, the best currency pairs I have found for a trade have been the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.
There are 2 other news releases I will set up to trade, the CAD Building Permits and the AUD Employment Change along with the Unemployment Rate.
And, I will keep an eye on the USD - Non Farm Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index as well as the NZD - Gross Domestic Product.
I will post more tomorrow concerning the German Factory Orders.
Thanks for your help ssnvet!
Early tomorrow morning, the 6th of July, 2011 at 6:00 AM ET, the Deutsche Bundesbank will release the German Factory orders.
Of 21 releases I monitored, 7 releases were traded - 3 of the currency pair EUR/USD and 3 of the currency pair EUR/JPY.
There were 12 trades with 6 winners, 1 break even and 5 losers - the odds with this news release do not seem very favorable, only a very, very slight edge.
The economists have difficulty forecasting this news release correctly, and the market moves very well when they are wrong by 1.3% or more. With this in mind, I feel there is a pattern to be found that can provide a much greater edge.
Tomorrows forecast is -0.5%, a big drop from last months report of +2.8%. So….if the actual report comes out higher than the forecast by +0.8 or more, this would be a bigger surprise to the market than if it were lower than the forecast.
I am looking for +0.8% or higher for a buy of the EUR.
If the actual comes out at a -1.8% or lower, the market move may not be as great, but still possible, a sell of the EUR would be appropriate.
The broker spread is important.
I watched the charts for this report for 9 months before feeling confident to make a trade.
Confidence is a big factor!! So, practice is needed.
Often, the UK will release a news report that is off “forecast” enough for a good “scalp” or 2, or 3.
Early tomorrow morning, the 12th of July, 2011 at 4:30 AM ET, the UK’s National Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index Report.
This is a good indication of the inflation which is causing economic problems for Britain.
I am looking for 4.7% or higher for a buy of the GBP, or a 4.3% or lower to sell the GBP.
My best currency pair for a trade, most of the time, is the GBP/CHF - even though this currency pair is probably the best for long term movement and PIPS, my broker spread is higher here than with other currency pairs.
The broker spread is important.
I think that a great profit can be made from the news. Because of the current news out of Italy most of the EUR pairs dropped today. If you are using BB you will notice that price is extremely over extended on some them and odds are that price will come back up throughout the week. I suggest getting in on some these pairs. I have posted a chart below for one of them.
A perfect storm tomorrow, Thursday the 14th of July, 2011 at 8:30 AM ET.
Not often will 5 volatile economic news reports for the same country come together at the same time on the same day - but it is happening tomorrow.
Along with the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales reports (released monthly by the Census Bureau), will be the Producer Price Index and Core Producer Price Index reports (released monthly by the Dept. of Labor), and the Unemployment Claims (released weekly by the Dept of Labor).
Anyone of these reports, standing alone, could move the currency market if the “actual” report is far enough off the “forecast” - but tomorrow, 5 reports, anyone being in conflict with the rest, could spell disaster for traders caught up in the confusion.
In my opinion, the only way to trade this is if all 5 reports are either good for the US economy or bad for the economy - otherwise I would stay out.
I have traded all of these reports at one time or another, but never together.
It would be extremely rare for all 5 not to be in conflict, but if they are not in conflict, it could be one heck of a ride - may be fun to watch.
I am currently loving this thread.
I paper traded stocks for a long time based on news, reports, gossip and rumors and did decently enough. I was curious if similar expectations could be had with the forex markets. While the logic is somewhat the same the practice is incredibly different.
I’ve noticed myself the last couple weeks of looking at charts during news releases that they get pretty wacked out for a while. An employment report will come out way short. I would think “Damn, that’s brutal. Value goes down” and short as I would were it a stock. But no, of course it skyrockets 20 to 50 pips in the next ten minutes and busts my theory up.
I’ll start checking some 5m sticks to see if I notice the same 2 stick patterns you’re seeing. I’m very curious!
Keep on dancin’.
Found this thread really interesting! I am thinking of trying to trade based on news. Thanks for all your input. Happy Trading!
Judging from the amount of views and replies since this thread was started in June - I would say there is some interest in Economic News Release trading.
So….that being said, I will add a little more info to the mix.
Tomorrow, Tuesday July 26th, 2011, at 4:30 AM ET, Great Britain is scheduled to release the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product report, which is released quarterly by their National Statistics Publication Hub.
I have been watching this report since September of 2009 and started trading it in April of 2010. I have traded 4 releases of the last 5, made 8 trades with only 2 losers, that being on the first release I traded.
The GDP is being released along with one other GBP report, the GBP Index of Services 3m/3m, not much of a mover.
This months previous report is -0.5% and the forecast is 0.2%, economist belief an improvement for the UK.
I have traded when the actual report comes out 0.2% more than the forecast either negative or positive - this time I will be set up to trade the currency pair GBP/CAD. I have never trade this pair before, but my records show that it has a good response and so does the GBP/CHF. The only problem with the GBP/CHF pair is my broker spread is pretty high in the first 2 or 3 minutes.
If the actual report is a -0.2% or more beyond the forecast, say a -0.4% - the GBP should be sold - if a 0.4% or more, a buy of the GBP may render a good scalp.
If you plan to trade - keep a tight stop and watch your broker spread.
Good luck!
good thinking, about trading GBP/CAD, do you avoid trading GBP/USD on release?
Thanks!
No, I have not avoided trading the GBP/USD in the past, three of the four previous GBP-GDP reports which I had set up and traded were with the GBP/USD.
The thing is, I have found there are better currency pairs to trade, according to my research, these pairs will move further PIP wise and at times for longer periods and with less volatility.
This week, August 1st to the 5th, 2011, is full of news release trading/scalping opportunities, 2 coming up tomorrow, August 1st.
One of these you may want to keep an eye on, the British Purchasing Managers Index, released monthly by that Markit.
The release is scheduled for 4:30 AM ET.
Of the 2 on Monday, this British news release has been more favorable than the later US PMI release (10:00AM ET).
I am set up to trade the currency pair GBP/CHF should the report come out 1.8 higher or lower than the “forecast” of 51.1.
This news report can be a little confusing since Reuters releases the “actual” report to its subscribers 2 minutes early.
I have posted a video on You Tube that I took on September 1st, 2010, which shows my 1st trade of this news report, how I was set up and what transpired.
Please, give me some latitude here, I know, the video narration could be better.
I do not recommend in-experienced traders try a trade with this news release, but the video may be of some use with other economic news releases
Here is the link to the video
Do you think that the US Debt debate is affecting charts at all? It is just going to be put down in the senate anyways.