Yes, I do believe the debt debates have some affect. I am not an economist, but the feelings I have watching what is happening to our country and its economy makes me a little guarded when trading the news.
That said, I cannot help but think that other traders feel the same way some what, especially when they see what is happening to the value of the dollar against other currency’s.
DO you guys know a good website that forecasts the news?
DO you guys know a good website that forecasts the news?
I go to forextv’s main page and scroll down. It updates itself, which I like. It has the forecasts on there, but most of them do. Not sure if that’s what you were looking for.
Just wanted say thanks for writing this thread. I am getting a lot of useful information out of it.
Mark
Yeah. I cannot agree more!
When a person walks into, let’s say, an average Las Vegas Strip casino, that person is provided a number of gaming opportunities.
Some of those games are played against the house and some not.
Slot Machines, Blackjack, Craps, Big 6 and Roulette, the player is going against the house. The house sets the odds in the house favor and these odds are hard set - in the long run, the house will win.
But, the casino offers up a couple of card games where the player is pitting his skills against another player. One of these games is Poker. The house will make its money when the dealer drags a percentage of the pot and drops it in the drop box - the dealer does not play.
FOREX is very similar in that the trader is not going against his broker, he is trading against other traders and their skill, much like a skilled poker payer. The broker makes his money with the “spread”, not by beating the trader.
The skill of the FOREX trader is in knowing his odds, or, the probabilities in any given trading situation, whether a technical trader or fundamental trader.
Like in Poker where the skilled player will know the mental weaknesses of his opponents, the skilled FOREX trader must know the mental weaknesses of the majority of other traders. If not - there is trouble.
Nice analogy!
Thanks for your comment!!
Some countries release news reports that have not only good short term moves, but at times, the long-term results can be good as well.
Two of the countries I enjoy trading, when conditions are right, are New Zealand and Australia.
Well, tomorrow evening at 9:30 PM ET, Australia is scheduled to release 2 very important economic news reports, the Employment Change and their Unemployment Rate
With the world in turmoil, and the US problems, I will stay away from the AUD/USD currency pair. Probably, even though I will set up to trade the AUD/NZD currency pair, I may not trade under any seemly ideal conditions.
I normally look for a difference of 20K outside of the forecast, this time the forecast is 10.3 K, down from a previous release of 24.3K. The forecast does not look good for the Australian economy.
If the actual release comes out a positive 30.4K or higher, that would be a big surprise to the market since everyone expects employment to decline - will the market buy the AUD? Hard to tell these days.
This market could move as much as 30 to 35 PIPS in the first few minutes.
But, if the Unemployment Rate goes down as well, which is not forecast, the economy is obviously improving for Australia in a big way. The market may just buy the AUD big time. If these circumstances prevail, I may buy the currency pair AUD/USD. Maybe for short-term “scalps” and possibly long-term.
But that’s just me - risky business these days.
Be careful if you decide to trade these reports - high risk.
Great Britain will release tomorrow morning, the 16th of August, at 4:30 AM ET, their Consumer Price index and Core Consumer Price Index.
There will be 2 other “mild” GBP news releases as well.
This report should be good for a trade if the “actual” comes out off “forecast” by 0.2% or more. And even better, if the Core CPI comes out in the same direction! That is, if both are negative or positive.
I am set up to trade the currency pair GBP/CHF, which has proven to be a good mover more often than other currency pairs - so the odds are good.
One draw back with this currency pair for me - my broker spread for the GBP/CHF is higher the first 2 or 3 minutes into the news report than for other currency pairs. This means I may need to wait a little longer before entering a trade.
Of course, I always have a tight “stop-loss” - 15 or 20 PIPS.
I really look foreword to and enjoy currency trading both the Australian and New Zealand economic news reports. On Wednesday the 24th of August, 2011 at 6:45 PM ET, the New Zealand Retail Sales and Core retail Sales reports will be released by the Statistics New Zealand. This report is released on a quarterly basis…
It appears these reports are being released independent of any conflicting news reports, so…
I will be looking for both reports to support each other and if there is a difference of 1.0% more or less than the forecast of 0.6% - that would be a good indication for a trade entry.
Suppose the “actual” comes out at 1.6% or more, that is good for the New Zealand economy and a buy of the NZD, or, if the “actual” comes out -04.% or more, the NZD should be sold - keeping in mind both reports come out the same way, both favorable for New Zealand or bad for New Zealand.
My personal experience with these 2 reports, the EUR/NZD currency pair has worked out well.
However, with the current world economy and the New Zealand economy being what it is, I am afraid this news report might not work has predicted if there is a trigger and the reports are complimentary. I will be very wary of trading!!
Here is another US economic news release coming out tomorrow, Thursday, September 1st at 10:00 AM ET, and is worth watching.
The Institute for Supply Management is releasing their monthly Purchasing Mangers Index report.
If the “actual” comes out higher than the “forecast”, this is good for the USD.
The last 2 releases, one on Friday, the 1st of July and the other on Monday, the 1st of August were tradable releases.
The July report came out good for the US economy and was 3.4 higher then the “forecast” of 51.9.
The best currency pair for trading was the EUR/USD which moved down for 7 minutes about 39 PIPS after the 1st minute into the report.
The August report came bad for the US economy and was 4.1 lower then the “forecast” of 55.0
The best currency pair for trading this time was the USD/JPY which moved down for 12 minutes about 47 PIPS - right from the start.
My set up is for 2 or 3 above or below the “forecast” and I will be trading the currency pair USD/JPY.
Canada has some interesting news releases at times, one of these is the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index released monthly by the Richard Ivey School of Business.
Tomorrow, Wednesday the 7th of September, 2011, at 10:00 AM ET USA, this report will be released.
Since June, 2010, I have traded this news report 10 times with mixed results. The market does move when the “actual” is outside the “forecast” by a good amount - it has just become hard to figure out which direction the market will move.
I plan to set up to trade this report tomorrow, betting on the currency pair EUR/CAD this time - I will wait for a more definitive market movement if the “actual” comes out far enough outside the “forecast” - like a retrace - before entering a trade.
I do not recommend trading this report unless you are real comfortable with possible “wrong direction” high volatility. But, watching the report may be instructional.
No doubt you have been keeping an eye on what is going on in Europe and the Euro-Zone - most of those countries are in sad shape economically.
The only country that is seriously trying to keep its economy on the right track is Germany, but with the pressure being brought to bare on them, they may not last long.
There are only 2 Euro-Zone economic releases that I pay serious attention to, the German Factory Orders, which I have posted on this forum twice now, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report - I have not posted here before.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, September the 20th, 2011 at 5:00 AM ET USA, the ZEW is releasing the German Economic Sentiment report. I have traded this 8 times in the past, winning more often than losing, 3 trades were losers.
The EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment report is also being released at the same time.
Now, with the economy such as it is over there, I am a little more careful before entering a trade. I did have a winning trade last month. Both reports came out in the same direction - bad for the economies.
The German report last month was a -37.8, way down from the ‘forecast’ of a -24.6 - the EURO ZEW was even worse.
The ‘forecast’ for tomorrows German release is a -43.9, lower than the ‘previous’ release - not good.
I will be looking for a trigger of 10.0 above or below the ‘forecast’. I have done well trading the currency pair EUR/USD.
My feeling is along these lines, if the ‘actual’ report comes out higher than the ‘forecast’, this would be a big surprise to the market, even better if it comes out higher than the ‘precious’ - slim chance that happening.
Chances are the ‘actual” will be lower than the ‘forecast’, by how much? We will see.
Trading the news can be very exciting. If you are in a long position and it jumps during the news, you cannot be happier. However, I hope you understand that it is gambling. It is not a real trading and you might delete your account within seconds, especially if you are using a high leverage. My advice to you is, DON’T TRADE DURING NEWS. Close the computer if you cannot help it, or just control yourself
Hi Ryan Klein - I have to agree with you completely, trading the news is a gamble - just as any trading, be it stocks, currencies, commodities, antiques, collectibles, real estate, etc. That is, if that person has not prepared himself mentally, with knowledge, experience and adequate financing - they are taking a huge risk.
And, I agree, the market could suddenly spike in the wrong direction during volatile economic news releases, that is the reason for a tight “stop-loss”. Of course I agree one should stay out, close the computer - unless, they are one of those people who have educated themselves and are willing to take a risk.
As you know, people are different from one another in many ways - there are some with high tolerance to pain and some people who, at the very thought of pain, will do everything to avoid it.
Now, there are people who enjoy taking risks, and will educate themselves well enough to reduce those risks to a minimum - policemen, fire fighters, military special forces, etc. One thing the high risk takers have in common is very good training, training that they depend on to give them the advantage in their chosen vocation. In other words, they know the “odds“.
Trading is the very same - good training lends the odds in favor of the trader, of course practice helps in removing the element of fear, a big factor.
So, if a trader knows the odds of what the average market trader expects will happen when a certain economic news report is released, that person, with courage, can take advantage short-term and at times long-term.
If you have done any trading, then you have conducted your trades when you believed the “odds” were in your favor - right?
The “odds” are no different when trading economic news releases. Just different lessons to be learned.
Good luck in your trading Ryan!!
The down under economic news reports for Australia and New Zealand have been reports I look forward to.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, the 4th of October, 2011 at 8:30 PM ET, the Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release Australia’s Retail Sales report.
I have traded 5 releases since February 2010, with mixed results, actually more losers than winners.
I have been using a difference of 1.0% from the “forecast” in the past, now I have changed that to a 2.0% from the “forecast”.
So, if the “actual” comes out at 2.3% or higher than the “forecast“, I may consider selling the currency pair EUR/AUD or -1.7% lower than the “forecast”, a buy of EUR/AUD.
This may be worth watching at the very least.
I also have the same thinking. For example, if US unemployment numbers go down I will think the USD must go down so I buy the EUR. But nooooooooo!! The EUR goes down. I still don’t get it.
By the way I’m also loving this thread. I think I’m gonna make more replies because I have lot of doubts about trading the news.