Trading the Trend with Strong/Weak Analysis

Hi all, I am moving my long running thread from FXCM to babypips, Here using my own version of Strong/Weak Analysis, I will identify the best trending pairs and pin point some low risk high return entries. No day trading here, these trades can last from a few days to a few months, we trade with the trend until it ends. Feel free to join in with your questions or ideas

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My Strong/Weak rankings for Dec 14th, These are end of day numbers

On the day strength in NZD and AUD

NZD/CAD is my top trending pair, seen here on the 4hr chart

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US dollar strong on the day as market anticipates Fed rate hike on Wednesday, If Fed postpones rate increase that could send the dollar lower

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No change to our strongest and weakest currencies

NZDCAD today gave us a 100 pip pullback from high, sometimes with these strong trending pairs that is all you get, normally I would wait for pullback to 200ma on 1hr chart, but as you can see price has been above this moving average since Nov 19, that is a strong uptrend

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Strong/weak rankings for Wednesday, US Fed rate hike had little effect on US dollar

Kiwi leads the day as CAD again brings up the rear. My top SW trade NZDCAD up for 7th straight day

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USD and JPY were up everyone else down on the day

looking at our top SW trade, NZDCAD had it’s first down day in eight, this inside candle shows a struggle between the bears and bulls, price could go either way from here, during this uptrend the last two red inside candles were decided by the bulls, if we do move lower first area of support is 1 hr chart 200 ma at .9192, if that breaks then .9000 would be next level of price support, if you have profits in multiple lots this would be a good place to lock in some profits,
NZDCAD daily chart

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Heya Dennis! Good to see you again. Pity that the DailyFX forum got pulled :frowning:

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Hello hibikidan, glad you found me, I am hoping DailyFX will give us our forum back, I have 3 years of good information posted there and now I have no access to it. In any case I will likely make babypips my new home, lots of good trades out there so lets get to making some money

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invers correlation between US Stocks and Yen straightens , here is a group of currency ETF’s , on a day that US stocks are moving lower, Yen leads this group higher

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I included last Friday’s rankings for comparison , Strong was NZD, JPY and USD, Weak GBP CAD EUR CHF

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I’m liking EUR & JPY with CAD, looks promising.

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I am staying with my top SW trade. Watch 0.94000 that is resistance as price tested and rejected that price level twice last week, in early trading we are testing that number again.

Any trade shorting the CAD looks good right now, just don’t chase, if not in wait for pull back

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Being long my top ranked currency is paying off today as Kiwi leads the market higher, CAD again is among the weakest

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US stocks rally so yen sold off a bit, NZDCAD remains the play but major resistance is just ahead

Looking at weekly chart of NZDCAD we can see major resistance at 0.9600, if we get there taking some profits would be a good idea

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Good call to cash in.

Go go EUR!

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looks like the market is giving us a lump of coal for Christmas, Just last Wednesday things looked good for a Santa rally then Thursday and Friday killed that idea, we are slowly trying to take back some of last weeks losses but this type of price action looks more like a setup for another hard move lower.

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NZD holds on to #1 and CAD #8 but look at GBP , it is falling like a rock, at this rate GBP may kick CAD out of the number 8 spot

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GBP/CAD seems to be rallying since 10/12/2015, every other GBP pair are showing that GBP is weak since 14/12/2015, with NZDGBP taking the lead, and EURGBP trailing behind.

EDIT: Go go EUR!

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Long over due pullback in USDCAD, could be a good low risk entry as price bounces off 200 ma
USDCAD 1hr chart

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Can’t say I share your bullish view of Euro, Euro is a failed idea only kept alive by the Germans, any Euro rally I see as a short opportunity , but like anything else if you pick your spots you can make money in both directions

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