Trading the Trend with Strong/Weak Analysis

Multi year Head and Shoulder forming in AUDNZD, this is the weekly chart, we need to see a weekly close above the neckline to confirm the trade, this is one of those trades that will take many months to play out, If I am right look for a 1700+ pip move up from current price.

Long term look at EURGBP, I placed a red line at 0.7750, this has been multi year support and now resistance, as long as we stay under this red line I will be looking to short EURGBP

EURGBP weekly

USDJPY respected the 116.00 support level last week and then gave us a good reversal, still I see what some may call a head and shoulder top, if we break 116.00 then I may have to agree, until then the long term trend is up and that is how I am playing it

USDJPY weekly

The most traded pair has not given us much the past year as we have been stuck in a trading range, long term trend is still down and if stocks follow through with last weeks reversal this may finally be the move to break this range.

Strong weak rankings for Monday, not the action I wanted to see if last weeks reversals are to be believed , I did say a 50% retracement of last weeks move could happen.

Weekly chart gave us a short signal on EURAUD, but entering on the weekly candle means a very wide stop sometimes 500 pips or more, so we go down to the smaller time frames, in this case the 1hr chart, and as you see below price pulled back to the 200 ma gave us a evening star short signal and down it goes

Here is my SW rankings for Tuesday, see how the values for weak currencies are trending toward zero as the strong (JPY) get weaker and the once weak get stronger

Dennis, excuse my ignorance but how do you come up with the USD % when every currency pair has it as a factor?

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I use the Yen as my common denominator, in my rankings JPY will always be 0.00%. This way if USD is at 1.00% and say the CAD is as -2.00% , I now just by looking at my ranking USD will be 3.00% stronger then CAD. The % is distance from the 200 ma on a 4hr chart. Key is we are looking for a trend, I want to see a strong currency getting stronger against the weaker. Hope this helps

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Ahh, ok. Understood. Thank you for explanation.

another day same story, stock market sellā€™s off, Euro rallies, These big back and forth swings is part of a market looking for a bottom. For us a traders we must be patient and donā€™t chase, let price come to us

Well Yen finally gave up itā€™s month long rein at #1 , the whole market is contracting and consolidating , all part of the process until the next move, not a good time to be putting on a lot of new positions

Yeah, the trends just arenā€™t there yet. Iā€™ve been trading oil in the meantime.Had some great gains.

Yen is getting hit hard this morning, look for a big opening gap in US stocks, Yen falls, stocks soar, that has been the pattern. I have some charts to share but tinypic is down for maintenance , I will be back a little later, this is Dog park day

Last week USDJPY gave us a nice bullish engulfing candle, today I am being rewarded for staying with it. If this holds look for a test of last years high above 125.00

USDJPY weekly

as expected stocks gap open higher as Yen gets crushed, this could be a big day or a major disappointment

DOW 1hr chart, showing 135.00 opening gap, we now want to see follow though and price closing at high

Good advise to follow

today gave us follow through to support last weeks reversals , look for these new trends to continue next week

USD has been strongest currency 2 years in a row, and it end first month of 2016 on top, last column is YTD movement

Big up move in stocks, that 135 point gap open in the DOW ended up 380 at close

Wild end to the month, have we seen new trends started, could be, I will talk about that in my
weekly market review video, link below, if you like please subscribe

Strong weak rankings for end of trading Friday, I included the prior week to show how much things have changed

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a full docket of high importance events this week, remember it is not the event but how the market reacts to the event