Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

The market pulled back a little on Monday but not before SW trades USDCHF and CADCHF hit new highs

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It may be relevant that London was closed on monday - due to “Spring Bank Holiday” - yes we could still get Bets on, but many of the bigger players will have been away from the office.

USDNZD short was our Top SW Trade from Apri 25 and is back as our Top Trade, what more today USDNZD crossed the + 100 pip mark, making our Top SW Trades a perfect 14 for 14 this year.

Dennis, I get the impression that this year, for your SW system, is a stellar year so far. Statistically how does it compare to previous years?

Hello Dennis. I just came across this thread. I’m learning so much from all the post. Please, how do you get the market closing figures for the currencies you use in your calculation of SW?

Hello twiks,

I’m not Dennis, but I’ll jump in here with my answer to your question.

I have been doing my own Strong/Weak calculations as part of some experimentation I’m doing with Dennis’ methodology. Here’s how I’m getting the daily closing prices and SMA’s:

Anytime after 5 pm NY time, I will open my 4-hour chart, and scroll through these 7 pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY, and NZD/JPY.

Beginning with the USD/JPY chart, I place my cursor (cross-hair) on the 1300 candle. This candle opens at 1300 (1 pm) NY time and closes at 1700 (5 pm) NY time. Placing the cursor on this candle automatically opens the data window for that candle, showing O-H-L-C prices. The closing price for the 1300 candle is the one I want, because it’s the closing price for the day. The chart also displays the closing value for the 200 SMA for whichever candle the cursor selects. I simply record these two prices on paper, and scroll to the next pair.

When I have the 14 numbers I need (prices and SMA’s), I type them into an Excel spreadsheet (the way Dennis showed in his VIDEO), and let the spreadsheet do the math.

The platform I use is not the same as the one Dennis uses, so there might be slight differences between my prices and his. Also, I don’t know whether Dennis uses BID prices or ASK prices. I’m using ASK prices. Switching between BID and ASK prices will introduce small differences in the calculated strength figures, but will almost never change the rankings.

Here’s a screen-shot of my USD/JPY chart, showing the prices for today (Tuesday, May 8)
Click the image to enlarge it.

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Thanks so much Clint. Your explanation is great!

:wink:[quote=“IVx, post:1323, topic:77959, full:true”]
Dennis, I get the impression that this year, for your SW system, is a stellar year so far. Statistically, how does it compare to previous years?
[/quote]

Here are a couple videos I did last year first is from July where we were 12 of 14, and later the same year in October I posted this video where we had 12 in a row going, I will let these videos speak for themselves in answering your question. Big difference from last year is in 2018 we have only seen one Top SW Trade top 500 pips, Yes it has been a tough year, :wink:

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If you are still holding CADCHF, you had a very nice day

Thanks for the update as usual Dennis. I got stopped out of GBP/AUD earlier, but no complaints here.

More gains for our Top SW Trades and Top Trade GBPUSD* from May 3rd interday crossed the +100 pip mark, becoming the 15th winning trade this year against zero losers

GBPCAD* has become our 16th Top SW trade, we will be going for 20 winning trades in a row counting the 4 trade win streak we carried over from December

Note; if you see an asterisk (*) following a pair that means we are short

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Dennis,

Thanks for sharing this method; I’m yet to get fully up to speed with the background but shall read as much as I can in the short time available to me.So forgive me if this has been answered before; what is the basis of comparing the currencies against only the YEN? Seems fine if trading only against the JPY, but how does it transfer to the cross pairs, as you mentioned the GBPAUD? I have a few basic strength meters and they all say the same, so your answer would really help to clarify this issue for me. Much appreciated for the sharing, thanks.

Edit: no reply yet, so I need to ask this question, why on the 4 hour? As seen on big news days, a lot can change in a few 4 Hour candles, like the GBP cross pairs. I know some CSM constantly update and therefore have recent price movements in the calculations. Thanks

Please do go back to the beginning of the thread and read it.

@Dennis3450 did explain the logic of his choice fairly early and just asking to be spoonfed comes over as rather “short attention span” .

Lazy even ! :slight_smile:

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Thanks, for the astute response, yes, that’s me to a Tee :sweat_smile:

You probably could have answered it in the time it took you to write that, and help many others out also, but you choose to ridicule and belittle, so showing the true spirit of BabyPips, is that what it’s here for I wonder?

O, wait, a pop up message for noobs…maybe doesn’t apply to you being so special and all…

Does your reply improve the conversation in some way?

Be kind to your fellow community members.

Constructive criticism is welcome, but criticize ideas, not people.

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Thank you for your response.

At the end of the day we are here to learn and discuss.

5,000 people asking the same questions over and over and expecting the OP to repeat his earliest posts over and over, does not help the flow, or indeed the ability of the questioner to do his own research and take some responsibility for his own learning.

If you are not prepared to at least go and have a look, I expect forex is not for you ! :slight_smile:

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To be fair Mr Johnny, same and similar questions are asked weekly. So this has been asked before, and answered before. There is a wealth of further information in the thread. If you read it from start to finish, you will be wiser totally.

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Well, that’s an assumption on your behalf, I did read quite a bit of the beginning posts. I did not find any answers to my questions. Sure, the JPY is ranked against other pairs, but why the YEN? It is a base currency, sure, so is the EURO. Don’t see anyone using that even though it’s probably more volume traded.

There are tons of CSM out there to do these calculation; even this could be coded, why hasn’t that been done, be worth it’s weight in gold the way you guys are defending it. Why the 4 hour only? Why the 200 SMA? What is the magic?

If I find those questions answered in the thread, I will be very surprised. Where is the trading plan" What are the entry criteria? The initial stop loss, the exit?

See you later, thanks

I asked the Yen question over a year ago. I had my own assumptions (political stability, non-commodity, unchanging interest rates), but Denis replied that it is basically the easiest to administer, as it always quoted second in any pair (simplicity is king). I don’t think anyone is defending the method, it speaks for itself, but yes possibly defending the OP’s time, as the questions have all been asked before. As regards trading plan, it has all been asked before too. The answer is in the thread.

I have read most of the thread, this is why my curiosity has been stirred up. Yes, I get it is a ranking system, yes, I understand they are against the YEN.

What I don’t get, what is the logic? Apart from the base currency or quoted as you say, making it easy to work with; surely there is more to that than just “simplicity is best”?.Maybe that’s what the big banks use.

I already said, the EUR would be as easy to would with, it is more traded, why not use that. Maybe someone that has experience with using the spreadsheet, and has an ounce of curiosity might plug those numbers in there just see what the result is.

Also, I see many, many times, the figures are from the 200 ma on the 4 hour. Do I dare ask, is it the SMA, EMA, LWMA? Is it the Close price, open price, median price?

I shall keep reading, but I’ve been on a few forums and I tell you, when a question does get asked multiple times, usually that information is NOT in the 1st post.

Structure of this place is sadly lacking also and if you don’t agree, you don’t read many forums I’ll bet.

Good day to all, may thanks

Joined 23 hours ago

1h read time
315 posts read

1324 posts in the thread.

Interesting that a little less than 25% of total reading on the site equates to “Most of the thread”

Sorry - I have tried to understand why you don’t comprehend the “logic” of a common denominator - but I am at a loss to understand your problem !

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