Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

@Sbrandi interesting test you have there. The formula you used for your SW rankings are the same as Dennis’?

Sorry for asking this, just want to clarify as I am a new into this forex. You talked about the R:R does that mean if your risk is 200, more or less the reward is 600?

How do you show the ATR and pips in the upper left corner of the chart?
And also how do you trade using your ATR?
Thank you.

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Dennis,

I hope you dont mind me asking this question, in your recent experience how many pips is the biggest draw down you have experienced before going your way? And also the biggest draw down that you decided to stop and close the trade?

Thank you.

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@Jahruhay Yes the formula is the same, only difference is that I prefer a 20 SMA (120 SMA on 4H) on a daily chart, where dennis is using a 34 SMA (200 SMA on 4H), but there is no any significant different.

It means if you traded using a 200 Pip stop loss for the past five years, your average R:R would have been 3.08 R.

It is a free indicator you can find it online, I found it from Forex Factory Forum.

I am using a 3 ATR stop all the major pairs, except for USDCHF where I use a 4 ATR stop, and as the market goes in my favor I scale out while trailing my stop. Same applies if the market goes against me, I scale out make the risk to a minimum level.

Hope this helps :slight_smile:

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Good work Sbrandi,
This is why I run this threat, I know that SW works, but how best to use it is the $$ maker, I am sure the guy who discovered gun powder is not the same guy to discovered a little gun powder down a metal tube can launch a projectile.

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Hi J,
Not sure what the biggest was but a few years ago I reviewed all my trades for the year and found that 80% of trades I was stopped out could have been winners had I used wider stops. Now days I take fewer trades with wide stops giving me a better chance of being right

Stop placement is such an important subject, maybe it is something I can go into more detail on our next SW signal

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All eyes on the US stock market today, yesterday we saw a 700 point pinbar reversal at support, buyers have now come in three times at the 24500/24250 area. Stock Futures a down to start the day but where we finish is what counts.

1a

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Oil prices have found support at $50 and for now, ended its downtrend. if we break below 50 look for CAD to continue lower

1a

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what does the crazy guy on CNBC say " there is always a bull market somewhere"

Utilities may be a boring trade, but it is one of the safest investments you can make.

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When you said you are using 3 ATR stops on all the major pairs does that mean that if your ATR shows 50pips, then you are using 3x50pips= 150pips as your stop loss?

Also what is your settings in your ATR?

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Thanks Dennis. Looking forward to the day you will dig dipper onto the stops.

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Yes correct, 3 x ATR ( 20 Period) = My Stop Loss.

Also I use following two methods to reduce the risk.

  1. Trail the SL as market breaks significant levels.
  2. Scale out ( 1 Pos. @ 1 ATR, 2 Pos @ 2 ATR, 3 Pos. @ 3 ATR and 4 Pos. @ I let the market take me out)

:slight_smile:

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Scale out means taking half of the position @ 1 ATR? and so on?

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Yes correct :slight_smile:

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“I am sure the guy who discovered gun powder is not the same guy to discovered a little gun powder down a metal tube can launch a projectile.” <<<< GOLD ! :grinning:

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One has to wonder then WHY - he called it “Gun” Powder ? :wink:

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Many/most of the pairs have a 100 pip ATR? So you are saying you set your stop loss at approx. 300 pips?

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ATR’s were not meant to be TP or SL indicators. AN ATR is a volatility indicator.
You want an accurate TP and SL, not a guesswork orange.

Define your time period,
Define your trend line
Define the support and resistance
Now draw a line between the S&R thru the price point.
How far to the target from your price point
How far to the bottom from your price point
Do you have at least 2:1 profit potential? (in not move on)
If ok set your target to be about 75% of the target
set you stop to be about 50% of the bottom.
once your trade moves enough in your direction, move your SL up just past break even.

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Yes, absolutely accurately summarised, that’s the conventional theory. Thing is, what use is theory that doesn’t work for 95% of the participants?

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Darryl Guppy is one of the best known traders in Australia. I follow his use of 2*ATR as a stop very successfully for shares. Never tried it in FX as I have other ways I am comfortable with. Use what works for you and dont be overly prescriptive. For those new to trading it is about experimenting and coming up with something that makes sense in whatever time frame and zone you are operating in and ensure you repeat the same strategy over and over until you can do it in your sleep. ATR is not an unreasonable thing to consider. Scaling in and out is, for me, a particularly important strategy and there are many ways to do that

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could be it doesn’t work for th 95% because they don’t follow the rules and they don’t begin to understand good cash management. Just saying.

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