Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

@Dennis3450
Thanks a lot for your reply and your endless effort to help other traders, you are really doing a great job.
I’ve not been able to understand how people draw support and resistance from a moving average, can you please please explain to me how you do it? Thanks in advance.

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@Dennis3450
Also, I’ve been reading your comments, it seems that you trade only GBP pairs, may I know why?

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Look at our Performance in Forex Trading

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You guys using EA’s or trading manually?

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PLease and please
Can Someone Help me With Strong Weak Analysis Spreedsheets.?

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This market continues to contract, not a good time to be forcing trades.

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I went back to the start of this thread and figured out how you’re determining the rankings. I tried doing this myself with a spreadsheet for a few days. My results are very close but my numbers are often different by .01 to .07 from yours. Apparently we have different brokers and platforms.
Ever thought of creating a Metatrader indicator for this? I could probably do it with a large amount of time and effort I certainly don’t have. I think this could be of use even though I’m more of a scalper - 200 SMAs not on my usual charts.
We saw this week GBPCHF go down, whereas by your SW ranking, it should have gone up… is there lag involved here?

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@Dennis3450
Please answer the questions I asked in my last two post. Thanks.

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change determination calc.xlsx (5.3 KB)
Hope this helps

Traders FYI, the market is almost at its highest and lowes, the weighted DXY and EU are at their respected Alpha we are weighting on the big boyes to make a decision and they are waiting on a few key events to unfold. Meanwhile trade goes on and the market will continue to ebb and flow.

As the saying goes follow the money.

For what its worth, I really like what Dennis does with the S&W.

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thank you very much

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SW spread at 1.5%, yes this is a very low range …

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You are on the verge of blowing up your account.

Why would anybody want to join you in doing that?

Learning TA & trading is an awful lot of work, and there is no guarantee of consistent success.

Do your own due diligence.

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I concur, though a shift appears to be in motion.

Have a look at CHFJPY from the Sunday night open :slight_smile:

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hi Web, with the GBPCHF pair, there was a move up from when the pair arrived in the top SW ranking. I think it first appeared 20 days ago, Jan 22nd. If you had entered then at end of day, there was another 197 pips or thereabouts, before it turned back. And it is now back about that same level. If a position had been taken and half closed after 100 or 150 pips, with a BE stop thereafter, that would have been the win. The SW ranking can also be used very efficiently for much shorter trades, even day trading, but it needs extreme patience.

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There is no such thing as support and resistance from a moving average, with the exception of one aspect (below) .

A moving average is only what it says it is - an average of a certain number of values which moves every time a new value is added. Kind of like a window covering a range of values that moves along with the latest new value. There are many variations on how an MA can be calculated but they all do serve the same purpose: to show where current price is relative to the recent average of prices.

The only situation where MA’s can be seen to function as a form of support or resistance is when they are calculated for periods so widely followed by a broad range of market participants that they become self-fulfilling in technical analysis to a greater or lesser extent.

If you use an MA based on, say, 13 periods or 27 or 41, etc it would be very unlikely that the price would ever actually bounce off these levels at all except maybe as a random event or because the value happens to coincide with some other TA-deduced level.

But when the MA value is one that is widely followed by active market participants, such as 20,50,100,200 periods, then it tends to act as a magnet for people looking to set open/close trades somewhere in that region and concentrates their orders close to the MA value.

For example, if you are looking to buy as the price drops towards a 200MA line then you place your order just above the line in order to optimise your buy entry price. Similarly if you are already short and looking to close out near to that 200MA then you would place your close-buy just above the line in order to maximise your profit, but not beyond the line in case you miss out.

The MAs that are followed in this particular thread are ones widely used in many instruments and therefore represent a good region for entering trades (or exiting). But it is the SW analysis that is driving the direction for these pairs, not the MA’s. These MA’s only identify possible price levels for optimising performance within the structure of SW trading.

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@eclectic_e
Guess you were trying to reply someone else, cus your reply have nothing to do with my question.

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Some shuffling at the top but the distance between 1 and 8 is even tighter. Long-timers here will tell you I don’t like taking trades in pairs with less than 2% separation, sometimes they work but I need a big price action signal to get me in and I don’t see one yet

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What I am looking at

AUD is giving us a lot of mixed signals but seeing how AUD is tied to China that can be expected, Price action for both EURAUD and AUDUSD is being driven by January 3rd price reversal, that was a big strong move but so far only a countertrend move the long term trend is still going against the Aussie. If a trade deal between US and China is reach expect a boom for the AUD, no deal would mean a dip lower for AUD , until then we need to find a setup and I like what I am seeing in EURAUD, Price has been stuck between 1.5900 and 1.6000 for 5 days now, a daily close outside this range could signal as to which way this market is headed. Buy or Sell the EURAUD here is still a coin toss but if you are wrong the loss should be about 100 pips but if right several hundred pips are in play. Do your homework before taking any trade, as that is what I will be doing

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Dennis, See the AUD comp, as the USD is the quote side when the USD goes up it is going and and conversely when the dollar is falling the quote side is rising…
The line chart in the middle is the USD-DXY.

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