Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

Yen finishes the week in the top spot by like 2 pips, this is all do to an end of week selloff in US stocks, looking at the Nasdaq we have a bearish pin bar reversal on the weekly chart, Nasdaq has been the leader among major indexes and has a negative correlation with the Yen,

Our new top SW trade is CAPJPY, looking at the daily Friday’s breakdown would suggest this downward move has room to run

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Hi TwB - would really love to trial Dennis’s SW strategy as from reading your reviews it certainly looks like a good system. Would you be kind enough to suggest the best method for calculating the SW rankings as in your post? cheers

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Nice idea, what do you mean by moomentum period set to 1? Does that uses two indicators? Or only 1, RSI?


Edited:
So we use 2 indicators momentum and RSI. I just want to ask the buy/sell signal is when

(Im using MT4) momentum below 50 and rsi is oversold that is the sell signal?

Thanks

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NZDCAD is our 4th Top Trade in 5 days, I do not like to see that. NZDCAD does, however, have a nice uptrend and closing the day above 0.9250 would be a breakout

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I will update and post as soon as I can. I really don’t want to distract readers from Dennis’s idea and rankings.

I will let you know if I open a thread on it :wink:

One thing I did forget to mention is the JPY went to the strongest on Dennis’s rankings… It will now go to the weakest… Not in one go and will have pullbacks.

It became prime for weakness on the 25th March

I will post how its done in due time. Lets see how it plays out… It got the JPY from weakest to strongest last time out perfect even though I closed the trades early.

This is not my trade account but a demo MT4. I installed it to test some of the Snowmans indicators he posts.

I opened these trades very late on the signal on the 26th March at 03.30ish (Server time on ICMARKETS)

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Things got a lot tighter

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NZD strongest, that didn’t last long :astonished:

2019-03-27_17-29-14

A huge selloff in NZD today but has anything really changed, we still have a tight market with no clear leader up or down

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who’s the new king of the hill?

shirley those GBP moving averages have drop by now

2019-03-29_6-56-38

Brexit continues to spell havoc for the Pound, but the market remains in a tight range, this will pass, it always does

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seems to be a distinct lack of interest here, maybe things are moving too fast

2019-03-29_23-15-23

First let me say thank you to Dennis for this thread. I’ve been monitoring it for several months and posted only occasionally.

I have been working on automating Dennis’ SW algorithm, and I thought I would test it with the strategy in this early post:

Yes I realize Dennis’ strategy was meant to get a newbie started, not as the “Official SW Trading System,” but this strategy seemed like a good place to start.

To test the efficacy of this system, I codified the rules and put it on the MT5 backtester.

I’m not 100% certain I have all the bugs worked out, so if something obvious is amiss, do let me know.

Details:

  • A #1/#8 pair change is checked at the daily bar close.
  • Account size: $10,000 USD
  • Fixed lot size: 0.10
  • Leverage: 1:50
  • Broker: FxPro-MT5 demo account
  • Netting account
  • Range: 2018.01.01 to 2019.01.01
  • Data: 1 minute OHLC data.
  • Multiple positions can be run simultaneously; i.e. fixed SL/TP are only way to end a trade.
  • An existing position can be added-to, as long as it was still open when a #1/#8 change occurred to a different symbol, then changed back again. For example, if USDJPY was open, then the next day there was a change to USDCAD, and the following day went back to USDJPY, the position size is now 0.20.
  • SL:TP of 200:100 pips. No trailing stops, no move to $0, no pyramiding, no partial profits, no other money management. Not yet.
  • No exclusions for holidays, weekends, etc.

Notes / Conclusions:

  1. Since my broker is different from Dennis, the percentages I calculate aren’t exactly the same as his. They’re usually quite close. I think I detected only one #1/#8 change that I had that he didn’t in the past several months.

  2. For the year of 2018, the strategy does well the first several months then steps downward.

  3. Drawdown:
    Balance: 22.55%
    Equity: 23.43%

  4. There were 102 #1/#8 daily changes; there were 141 days of no-change.

  5. The results is a typical MT5 Tester Report, which is HTML with the accompanying images. I’ve attached it as a .zip file.

I’m going to look at various permutations of this strategy and see what comes of it.

Simple Strategy Results.zip (77.9 KB)

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A much better test would be to open a new demo account, place the trades as per the S/W ratings.

Forget the Take Profit, you need a lot of pips as per Dennis posts, Stop Loss is fine, but may need re-entry.

Everybody here will chip in to help, let’s do it, I mean, you do it

:wink:

Re-entry, yes, thanks for mentioning that. My code doesn’t allow for that at the moment.

I’ll definitely be looking at varying the SL/TP and having other exit rules that don’t use a TP.

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No way to sugar coat it, this is not a good market for Trend Trading, I have seen this before and it will pass and good times will be here again, Just don’t blow your account by forcing trades, nothing wrong with sitting flat and waiting. That is why my avatar is an Aligator, gators can go months without food and they never chase

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US stocks rally so we start the new month with a weak Yen and as I post the Pound is getting hit hard.

With all that, this market is tighter than ever

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Down day for US stocks which hurt commodities, yesterdays 5 pm selloff in the Pound completely reversed

Could shorting NZDCHF work here

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Is there really a trend here you would bet the farm on. For me not worth the risk

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I’ve been continuing to look for a viable strategy for Dennis’ SW (see previous post above for more details). I have the following to add:

Using SL:TP of 150:120 gives profitable results for 2018.

  • -416.44 swap,+2463.92 profit ($2,047.48 total)
  • 16.34% Drawdown
  • 74 trades

There is, of course, no guarantee that this would continue, especially with the choppiness of 2019 thus far, but for a newbie looking to try SW, you could use SL:TP of 150:120 as a starting point, then adjust based upon support/resistance, position of price relative to Donchian Channels, etc.

I haven’t done any forward testing.

I’ll looking into moving the SL to break even next.

If anyone is interested in historical data for devising their own strategies
, I am attaching my data as a .csv. As mentioned before, these values are not exactly the same as Dennis’ values because I use a different broker. These numbers are pulled at exactly 00:00 server time, and that could also introduce slight differences.

SW data.csv (71.9 KB)

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might interest some

https://www.globalprime.com.au/market-research/how-to-build-a-currency-strength-meter-via-tradingview

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