Yen finishes the week in the top spot by like 2 pips, this is all do to an end of week selloff in US stocks, looking at the Nasdaq we have a bearish pin bar reversal on the weekly chart, Nasdaq has been the leader among major indexes and has a negative correlation with the Yen,
Our new top SW trade is CAPJPY, looking at the daily Friday’s breakdown would suggest this downward move has room to run
Hi TwB - would really love to trial Dennis’s SW strategy as from reading your reviews it certainly looks like a good system. Would you be kind enough to suggest the best method for calculating the SW rankings as in your post? cheers
NZDCAD is our 4th Top Trade in 5 days, I do not like to see that. NZDCAD does, however, have a nice uptrend and closing the day above 0.9250 would be a breakout
I will update and post as soon as I can. I really don’t want to distract readers from Dennis’s idea and rankings.
I will let you know if I open a thread on it
One thing I did forget to mention is the JPY went to the strongest on Dennis’s rankings… It will now go to the weakest… Not in one go and will have pullbacks.
It became prime for weakness on the 25th March
I will post how its done in due time. Lets see how it plays out… It got the JPY from weakest to strongest last time out perfect even though I closed the trades early.
First let me say thank you to Dennis for this thread. I’ve been monitoring it for several months and posted only occasionally.
I have been working on automating Dennis’ SW algorithm, and I thought I would test it with the strategy in this early post:
Yes I realize Dennis’ strategy was meant to get a newbie started, not as the “Official SW Trading System,” but this strategy seemed like a good place to start.
To test the efficacy of this system, I codified the rules and put it on the MT5 backtester.
I’m not 100% certain I have all the bugs worked out, so if something obvious is amiss, do let me know.
Details:
A #1/#8 pair change is checked at the daily bar close.
Account size: $10,000 USD
Fixed lot size: 0.10
Leverage: 1:50
Broker: FxPro-MT5 demo account
Netting account
Range: 2018.01.01 to 2019.01.01
Data: 1 minute OHLC data.
Multiple positions can be run simultaneously; i.e. fixed SL/TP are only way to end a trade.
An existing position can be added-to, as long as it was still open when a #1/#8 change occurred to a different symbol, then changed back again. For example, if USDJPY was open, then the next day there was a change to USDCAD, and the following day went back to USDJPY, the position size is now 0.20.
SL:TP of 200:100 pips. No trailing stops, no move to $0, no pyramiding, no partial profits, no other money management. Not yet.
No exclusions for holidays, weekends, etc.
Notes / Conclusions:
Since my broker is different from Dennis, the percentages I calculate aren’t exactly the same as his. They’re usually quite close. I think I detected only one #1/#8 change that I had that he didn’t in the past several months.
For the year of 2018, the strategy does well the first several months then steps downward.
Drawdown:
Balance: 22.55%
Equity: 23.43%
There were 102 #1/#8 daily changes; there were 141 days of no-change.
The results is a typical MT5 Tester Report, which is HTML with the accompanying images. I’ve attached it as a .zip file.
I’m going to look at various permutations of this strategy and see what comes of it.
No way to sugar coat it, this is not a good market for Trend Trading, I have seen this before and it will pass and good times will be here again, Just don’t blow your account by forcing trades, nothing wrong with sitting flat and waiting. That is why my avatar is an Aligator, gators can go months without food and they never chase
I’ve been continuing to look for a viable strategy for Dennis’ SW (see previous post above for more details). I have the following to add:
Using SL:TP of 150:120 gives profitable results for 2018.
-416.44 swap,+2463.92 profit ($2,047.48 total)
16.34% Drawdown
74 trades
There is, of course, no guarantee that this would continue, especially with the choppiness of 2019 thus far, but for a newbie looking to try SW, you could use SL:TP of 150:120 as a starting point, then adjust based upon support/resistance, position of price relative to Donchian Channels, etc.
I haven’t done any forward testing.
I’ll looking into moving the SL to break even next.
If anyone is interested in historical data for devising their own strategies
, I am attaching my data as a .csv. As mentioned before, these values are not exactly the same as Dennis’ values because I use a different broker. These numbers are pulled at exactly 00:00 server time, and that could also introduce slight differences.