While I don’t use TradingView, I did skim through the article. It appears to have another viable formula for calculation currency strength.
I was curious about the use of “Triple Moving Averages Foxx,” a free indicator, so I looked it up. The formula is online.
It appears that original author (not Foxx) is simply smoothing his 3-MA with the 5-SMA from Foxx, so he probably could have just used a native 5-SMA from TradingView.
Anyway, I suspect there are better moving averages to use to reduce lag, e.g. Hull or the Zero-Lag EMA.
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It may be time to look at Bitcoin again, up all most 20% in two days
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AUDNZD has been in an uptrend for barely over a week and already in our top ranking. Breakout day for the DOW which explains AUD but this market still lacks direction
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well i bought it at 1.04981 check 15m chart. it will make sense, for the new people. thanks dennis, best of luck.
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Top Trade AUDNZD gave us a small gain on Friday but the better play might be the previous Top Trade NZDCHF* after finding strong resistance at 0.6900 NZDCHF has broken support and looks poised to move lower.
Note: 22 of the 28 pairs have a separation of less than 1% and nothing is over 2%, any trade in this low volatility environment using my trend trading strategy will have a higher fail rate. If you do trade be selective and make sure you have money for when better times come
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Bitcoin-like gold has not been far out of my sights. If you had bought $100 of Bitcoin each week this year you would have now bought $1,400 at an average cost of $3700 a coin. or 0.378 of a bitcoin which at today’s price of $5133 would be worth $1,942 a profit of $542
My goal is to accumulate wealth through the steady purchase of assets with the potential to appreciate over time, while Bitcoin is risky it does have the potential for above average growth over the long term
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Democrats double down on Russiagate hoax giving the Bulls on Wall Street room to run.
The chart below of the SPY shows the huge selloff following the Democrat Party return to control of the US Congress ( well the House anyway). Democrats have a history of deliberately destroying the economy as a means of getting their man in the White House, they did just that in 1992 with Clinton and in 2008 with Obama. This time may be different as Democrats even after the Muller Report seems to put an end to the idea that Donald Trump was a KGB agent. Democrats have again doubled down and continue to push this hoax. The good thing in all this is as long as Democrats chase their tails and leave the economy alone markets could see new all-time highs in the near future
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I was thinking that the separation between #1/#2 and between #7/#8 would also be important, especially when detecting a “change” of the best position.
For example, the difference for 5-Apr of #1 (AUD) to #2 (USD) is 0.08% using Dennis’ numbers.
Looking at this graphically, I see that AUD, USD, and CHF are so close together that having one switch the high position wouldn’t be all that relevant. In fact, using my broker, CHF does take the #1 slot, which it keeps for the first H4 this morning, but AUD takes it back the next H4.
Image Notes:
- my values differ from Dennis’ because I use a different broker.
- my dates are one ahead of Dennis’ because I use server time.
- I’ve un-normalized JPY so I can see what it’s doing relative to other currencies.
So, what separation would be meaningful? Maybe 0.15 to 0.20% minimum. I’m open to other interpretations.
Here is some data if anyone wants to try it out.
SW Data with Separations.csv (99.6 KB)
Top Trade AUDNZD was up for its second straight day for a whopping +45 pips over two days. That sums up the kind of market we are in
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Gator Waaassss up budds. Have a great rest of the season.
The Ever Salutatory VIPER
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and here comes the Yen again
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Top Trade AUDNZD looked like a weak trend but it keeps going up,
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Top Trade AUDNZD hit another new high before pulling back, lots of shuffling around in the middle but with a market this tight it is all meaningless. We need some unrest in the EU to get things moving again
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Top Trade AUDNZD swept the week and has turned out to be a nice trade, And for the benefit of Olaf the max drawdown would have been -34 pips
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AUDJPY is our newest Top Trade if only by a hair. following that big pin bar reversal that started the year the trend has been mostly up
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there is hardly any breathing room at the bottom, but look how Top Trade AUDNZD pulled back to the 200 ma on the 1hr chart , held and moved higher
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I have been playing with a strategy using Dennis’ SW that showed a lot of promise for year 2018 data, but didn’t hold up with older data (or the 4.5 months of 2019). I’m spelling it out in case it gives anyone ideas.
- Instead of placing a trade when there is a new “best” pair, you wait a day to confirm that same pair is in the spotlight.
- I used a fixed lot size of 0.1 for testing. Using 2% of equity surely gives better results.
- SL = 70 pips ; TP = 60 pips
- To manage risk, I follow the SMA34. Specifically, if profitable and if the H4 bar closes on the correct side of SMA34, move the SL to SMA34 +/- 0.5*ATR. (The +/- depends upon long or short, obviously.)
- Paying attention to the actual strength value, e.g. > 2.0%, or the separation between #1/#2 and #7/#8 didn’t help this algorithm.
The smaller SL & TP means that for a longer trend, you may get several profitable trades in a row. Ofttimes you get stopped out when a trend ends, but because of following the SMA34, this is often less than 70 pips.
What I really liked about the numbers was the number of wins and incredibly low draw down. It was < 2%.
Anyway, as I said, it didn’t hold up for more recent data or 2017 data, so I am still trying different ideas.
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i went long on this at 1.04981. got stopped out 1.05758. had i been a little more lenient, 1.05420, would have kept me in. hope this will help anyone.
Trade with the trend is the best option for the newbies as it is quite hard to depict the trend reversal. There are the strategies which are quite good for depicting the trend reversal. But in the beginning stay way from them. Thank you so much!
