It does make sense… Thx.
On downtrend, when the cancel close above the upper hand, I think you may short! but what do u do if candle close lower than the low band?
and On the uptrend , you may take the trade if it close below the lower band, what about when it close above the upper one?
Thx so much.
worry when the candle close
67.25 is where i am looking to get in this nz/jp again, as on the monthly 61.2 looks achievable. it is overextended a bit. but if the nz weakness is apparent, i will be in at this price.
One more example (attached).
Note: the 50SMA on H4 is very much like the 200SMA on H1. It’s not exact, but it’s close enough.
This example is an up trend.
∴ Go long.
Set SL at the SMA50 line itself if you are feeling risky, but it wasn’t that long ago that prices went through the SMA50, so I probably wouldn’t do that.
I might set the SL at the lower 1.25% band of SMA50.
For even less risk, I might set the SL at the upper 2% band.
As for the TP . . . look for a resistance line, or just go for a fixed amount, or don’t set one at all.
Pound all the way up to #2 but downtrend in GBPJPY is still intact
Tigranes,
Thx again for taking the time to share, as Dennis does on daily basis great & valuable trading information.
By using, the 4H TF with SMA50/H4 (200SMA/H1) & SMA200/4H made it much easier to follow you.
Also now I can understand your point back on 8/21 post & how 200SMA/H1 would help you to determine whether the pair is trending or in range.
When the Forex currencies are not trending, do you trade any Metal /Energy such as XAU,XAG,XPT,XPD,XTI,XND crosses with USD & EUR and comply with your rule?
It does seems that both XAU & XAG trending & complying!.
I would like to share with you a strategy I have been using last few days (I think of it as Pullback to SMA200+2%) & it seems it is working with 50-100pips gain. When I look at the pairs which comply with Dennis Rule of SWA of >2%, I look at currency performance on Finviz about 4-6h from the start of the day, I try to trade the pairs going against Dennis (Pullback).
.
Last if you do not mind please let me know if I want to reverse your last example of going long?
To go short the:
• Prices should be below of 2% of 200SMA/H4.
• Price should be below 1.25% of SMA50./H4.
• Price have been trending downward for a while
• SL=Higher Band of SMA50, or lower band of SMA200.
The current prices on the attached CADJPY chart confirm with Dennis’s but does not with your rule!
Thx so much.
Yes. Exotics, metals, cryptos . . . whatever is trending.
That seems logical. The only other bullet I might add:
• Other related currency pairs are also trending.
Related means other currency pairs based upon the individual currencies of the top choice. Remember that this is the point of Dennis’ SW calculation. He separates symbols into individual currencies. So I watch what NZD and JPY are doing and what other currency pairs involving NZD and JPY are doing. This determines the “tide” of the market.
Pound and Yen weak, everyone else gained a little
We are on pace to go an entire month without a new trade signal
big day for US stocks, DOW up over 300 but FOREX did not follow. It would be unusual to see a stock market rally with the Yen in the #1 spot
Hi Dennis, Thank you for your kind sharing. This is exactly why I remembered this forum after a seven year absence. I remember following pipEASY with his EquityMillipede thread that looks like it is still live. Given time I will do some more extensive content research and ease myself back into babypips. It is refreshing to be back
No indication Top Trade NZDJPY is done with this down move, I would not be jumping onto this trade here unless I was playing with the house’s money. I would rather see a pullback to the 200 ma on 1hr chart and catch the reversal back down.
August is over, expect things to pick up as we move into September
I’m sure many of us are thinking “NZD HAS to go up from here”.
But it doesn’t, does it…?
I don’t see anything in the charts that tell me NZD is done going down, and NZD is even weaker against AUD
Agreed. Hopeum just not working!
Oh, glad you dodged the bullet there in Orlando!
Not much going on in the ForEx market today. US holiday and all.
Looks like Hurricane Dorian hasn’t turned north yet, which is a little disconcerting. Hope you’ll be OK, Dennis.
US markets closed and much focus on the Hurricane so as expected slow day for FOREX but keep an eye on GBP, it has been falling and could soon hit some new lows. GBPJPY and USDJPY look ready for a breakout lower
Looks like Florida may dodge the bullet here, funny story, I was in a Starbucks about noon yesterday and they were kicking everyone out so they could close the store until after the hurricane, clearly, this was a call made by someone in Seattle who has no clue about hurricanes in Florida
My father is on the gulf side. He’s not too worried about this one.
I lived in Naples for two years and never even had a significant wind storm.
early move down for the Pound followed by a pretty good reversal by days end, AUD and NZD also showing some life. Maybe we can get out of this ditch and see some new trade signals soon
