Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

EURAUD is our new Top Trade but I am not jumping into this one as the market is trending in the wrong direction

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Last week was nothing but pullbacks as Central Banks come to the rescue ( that would be rescue of their friends, you and I are not invited)

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How are your trades going Dennis?
I have the impression that every single market is just reacting to the dollar.

Checking some breakouts, I became interested on EURJPY. Euro losing some steam and jpy maybe coming back to the pole position. But I’m also thinking in something else: what do you think about taking two pairs that are very close on the rank and trade their ‘‘more stable’’ trend, whatever it is?
Do you think that this may filter a bit the market and provide a soft range or a slow trend?

Eventually selling below 118,7 as we clean some supports.

Right now I feel they are trying to bait us in, they have extended the lock down to end of April and estimating 200,000+ deaths ( here in the US) when all is said and done yet the stock market is up today, none of this makes sense so I am keeping my cash safe until see a play worth the risk. Sometimes sitting in cash is the best place to be

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No good news on the virus yet stock go up and currency markets tighten

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We end the month where we began with the Yen on top

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Lets look at some charts, We ended February with NZDJPY* as our Top Trade, that pair never did retrace to its entry point and now looks ready to move lower, Same is true for current SW trade AUDJPY* this one did retrace its entire move so we will track this one as a new trade

I see US central bank trying to prop up stocks which should be good for AUD but the trend tells us stocks and AUD are heading low,

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I think our two-week pullback is over and down we go

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dennis you clearly have a depth of knowledge from expierence ive only been trading a year or so and after making some nice money last week i got bitten at the beggining of this week and have just sat and watched the markets
im in the uk we are basically just getting going in terms of daily deaths yesterday saw 563 in a day we are expecting 1000+ yet GBP is doing alright and i dont know why could you please educate me haha

This remembers many quotes from books about traders: that moment where ideas and fundamentals tell you something ans the price other. Well… those were some of the moment that Jesse Livermore lost money, so the price is really the king.

I’m with you, although it seems that Asia in general is set to rebound (China recovering while west world is burning in chaos), the charts are telling a different story. NZD, AUD are not recovering and are preparing for new lows.

I’ll not argue and will keep following the trend.

Up day for stocks and the currencies followed

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between a worldwide pandemic and the Fed printing Trillions of worthless fiat money, the markets are just confused. I still think we have not seen the lows in stocks, no one believes China’s death claims, best to limit your trading in times like this

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thankyou for the reply
im just going to sit back and observe for now then wait for the waves to calm.

Just wait a few days and you will see how the USD will weaken very much because there are a lot of coronavirus cases and a lot of people are unemployed, so later only buy EURUSD, GBPUSD and sell USDJPY, USDCAD and others :money_mouth_face:

If it was so easy… Just open 1 lot on each of these pairs and get to five figures then my friend.

I think USD is not up to simplifications. Many bad situations made actually dollar strengthen.

What do you think Dennis. You saw history more than us, how does the dollar react in this environment?

During the Global Financial Crisis, the dollar index went to the roof. In March 2009, when Down Jones reached the lowest level (6,400 !!), the dollar was on it’s highest valuations in years. Then in the next year it lost most of its value.

For a trend-following system, I would wait for this second part and then trade the weakness of the dollar. So far the crisis has just begun, so better wait.

Hi, Denis,

Your Strong/week analyzes are very good. I would like to do some backtesting with your SW analyzes. Maybe you could share your accumulated SW Excel history if that is not too much to ask.

Thank you in advance.

USD is still ( with JPY) a safe haven currency, during bad or uncertain times people tend to hoard Dollars and Yen, betting against the Dollar is betting against strength and is not what this thread is all about

Welcome to the thread, I do not share my excel sheets except for the screen shots. I would not put to much into back testing, markets are always changing and what worked 5 years ago my not work today

again, Welcome

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Just a quick question, is there a reason the JPY is your dominant currency and not the US Dollar?