We start the week with EURAUD* our Top Trade and so far we see a continuation from last weeks down move
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AUDUSD has just about corrected itself to the downtrend it was on before covid struck.
EURAUD is still a way higher than it was. Since things are starting to return to normal, and Europe is hit so hard, there might well be legs in this trade…
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Looking at yesterdays Top Trade EURAUD we see why we take profits and use break-even stops. This was a good trade I hope you locked in soom profits before the pullback
AUDCAD is now our newest Top Trade, as you can see by the chart price has overhead resistance at the 200 da, maybe if price can get above that this might work for us I am just not a huge fan of pitting one commodity currency against another,
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Euro is rolling over again, Top Trade EURAUD may make another run lower
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Guys, the answer is to trade with an automated system. If you have any questions just let me know!
Hi Dennis, great thread and methodology.
May I inquire on the reasoning or theory behind using the H4 200MA for SW ranking/analysis?
Thanks
Hi chiefud, welcome to the thread
we are focused on medium term moves also called Swing Trading, the H4/200ma gives us about 34 days of data and I have found that to be a good time period any shorter and you get a lot of false signals
hope this helps
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If you don’t mind me asking, @Dennis3450, does this mean that you trade on the 4 hour timeframe with the 200MA?
Cos I always thought that you use it for the analysis alone?!
Thanks, it clarifies a few thoughts.
EURAUD* ended the week where it began, even thou we got 200+ pips it has still been moving sideways, a close out of this range should point to the direction it wants to go
In other markets Gold had a bearish weekly reversal which should be bad for the NZD,
US stocks continue to rise which is good for the AUD, with this in mind might a AUDNZD make a good trade, you would think so but I feel a trap might be in the works here so trade with caution
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Since I trade on end of day numbers I look at the daily and as long as it is not in conflict with my analysis numbers then I will take the trade, I also watch the 200 ma on the 1hr chart for secondary entries like after pullbacks
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I pulled these numbers 50 min. before the daily close, Not any major changes, NZD was strongest on the day and CAD weakest
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The markets love to lure us in and take our money, GBPJPY looks to be rolling over and if you are a EURGBP trader now is the time to plan your long trade
Technically stocks and gold look like they are heading lower, will our currencies follow, that is the question
To survived the pullbacks in our EURAUD* trade you would have needed a stop outside of 121 pips, those who have followed this thread for a while know I favor wide stops so 121 is nothing
Note: the US government is determined to save the stock market through an unprecedented central bank manipulation, that normally would be good news for AUD and looking at a chart of AUDUSD we can see AUD has a lot of room to the upside without breaking it’s multi-year downtrend
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