Ordinarily I would agree - a bearish AUD/USD normally reflects a bearish Dow. OK, the Dow is lower than it got to last week but it isn’t making a strong bearish move. Which makes me distrust the AUD/USD’s actual downwards move more than I distrust the Dow’s potential for a downwards move.
I might be confused but for now I’m staying away from forex and just holding a Dow long.
Yes, I am a long term trader, I like to be in positions for weeks even months so I may be holding through several NFP reports. But that is me, everyone trades differently
I agree, We want to trade with the trend and if other markets are trending and forex is chopping back and forth it makes sense to look at other markets,
Thank you, Dennis…that is very helpful to know.
We made it to the halfway point of 2021,
Hello Dennis,
Using your formula…(price-moving average)/price=%, i couldn’t really get what u got for USD on SW analysis. You got 1.35% and i got 1.19%.
My candle close on daily on 6/30 is 111.099 while SMA 4hr/200 is 109.776(or how do you find the close for SMA 4 hr, on MT4?)
My broker is Oanda.
Can you kindly let me know how you arrived at 1.35% with special mention on what your candle close is on 6/30 and on SMA close on 4 hr, so that i can know where i went wrong. Thank you.
Dollar strength continues.
Maybe the Fed should print another 10 trillion dollars
Using todays numbers
USDJPY 11153
4hr 200ma 10964
I don’t use the decimals
The formula is (price - moving average) divided by price
You’re doing it right, it’s just slightly different data from a different broker. These are my percentages for the 30th and I get the same USD value as you.
| USD | JPY | GBP | CAD | EUR | CHF | AUD | NZD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.19% | 0.00% | -0.57% | -0.66% | -0.84% | -1.01% | -1.21% | -1.27% |
Thanks alot bro…music to my ears.
Thanks Dennis…you do a great job.
i use Oanda as well and i dont get the same numbers either.
@TravisN…you meant to say you didn’t get the same numbers as Dennis on that SW ranking? I think he doesn’t use Oanda and that is why we are getting different numbers than him. I hope this is what u got for 7/2/21. I use Oanda as well!
I posted this on Friday but on the wrong thread, the coming week is still a coin toss as the market continues to zig zag
Remembering those who made July 4th possible
God bless everyone
@TradingMagnet, @TravisN, there is a couple of factors that will give you slightly differing results from Dennis’s data.
As @Student05 has pointed out in a previous post… You are trading Forex through your Broker in an OTC Market… There is no globally set price for the EURUSD…USDJPY etc. etc. Its value is set by your Broker or Liquidity Provider and is usually as close as possible to the Interbank levels.
You will be able to visualise this if you open a second account (demo) via a separate Broker or even by using the TradingView site (great site) to compare price feeds.
The other factor that will change your (all of us) percentage values from Dennis’s is the difference in the various time zones that we all reside in…
These two factors have a minor bearing on everyone’s CSW formulation results. Hope this is of help.
@Trendswithbenefits…does it affect the ranking too because if you look at my middle table currencies, NZD, CHF, and GBP rank differently than Dennis? I double-checked my numbers for daily closing candles and H4/MA and they are correct per Oanda’s data?
Is it possible then to arbitrage between brokers when deviations on price occur, betting on their eventual or convergence? Do they cover at least spreads?
Hi @TradingMagnet, Shouldn’t, unless they are all really (really close) in percentage values…
The other variable can be the time of day you extract your data… Dennis’s formulation is made at the close of the New York session each day, which say in my (UTC+10) TZ is 8.00am.
It’s possible that using data from a different time of the day may alter the results.
A few of Dennis’s YouTube vids from 5-6 years ago… Enjoy. Cheers
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Hi @Ontario, the arbitrage gap is usually very small, 1 or 2 pips at best. You could always trial it and see how it performs… even if it gives you an idea of market direction.
I have seen a few situations like the plunge in Oil futures last year where XTIUSD varied by $4 or $5 per barrel across the 3 Brokers I was using…
Not sure arbitrage is truly possible. The way I understand it is that a commodity is a different price on different markets and you buy on one and sell on the other simultaneously to get the profit. You’re never actually trading a real asset in forex, so you can’t buy it on one broker and sell on another to get that profit.
