I talked a little about this one in my Weekly video. Once the US Fed raised interest rates that made US Strongest currency. Unless something changes I would not be shorting the US Dollar right now. CAD can still be a good play matching up to a weak currency. Going long USDCAD you are picking the stronger of two strong currencies, if oil starts moving higher the USDCAD could move lower
ThanKS I totally get it
Another day of consoldation, most likely this will end with breakouts in the direction of longer term trends, I like getting long USD here
It is looking like we may close the year with a tight consolidated market
This will be my last post for the year, as I do my annual review of my trading accounts, I will be looking to identify the Good, the bad and the ugly of my trade decision for 2016 and hopefully formulate a plan to increase the Good and decrease the ugly.
Happy New Year everyone, Here is my weekly market review video, I will be posting some year end stuff today and tomorrow as I review my trading year
Here is some Year end stuff
first chart is all the Yen pairs and we can see by this that the CAD was 2016 strongest currency with GBP being weakest
Next chart shows all pairs as they finished 2016, the column labeled Pos% is the basis for this rank order. Shorting GBPCAD would had been 2016 best play
I finished my self evaluation of my 2016 Forex trading, and uncovered some clear (Ugly) trading trends that I will seek to correct in 2017
The Good
Most of my trading is done with my 7 core pairs, the USD match to CAD, AUD, EUR, and JPY, I also trade three cross pairs EURGBP, AUDNZD & EURAUD. For the year as a group I did very well trading these pairs with my Best Pair USDJPY and Best Trade USDCAD
The Bad
Where things got ugly was when I ventured outside my core pairs, while the majority of my trades were in my core group, I did take trades in 8 other pairs resulting in a net loss for that group, this included my worse trade of the year GBPAUD
I have written myself an action plan to address the above failures
Over all I am very happy with my trading plan of matching Strong to Weak currencies, being patient as I wait for ideal trade setups and always trading in the direction of the trend
2017 will be my 5th year trading Forex with Strong Weak Analysis, this has been a time tested approach and one I plan to continue with for years to come.
I hope everyone a great and profitable 2017
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Here is my final SW ranking for 2016, pre-opening action looks like USD is starting 2017 where it lift off in 2016. With the US Fed seeming to signal that it plans a series of rate increased in 2017 , this could be a very good year for being long US dollar, and until something changes that will be my play for the new year
May I ask you what was your average monthly return using this method? Iām planing to use a similar approachā¦
USD gets of to good start but did finish well off itās high, so we will need to watch for a pullback in the new trading day
I keep my account performance private, a monthly average is kind of pointless as it will very greatly from month to month depending on how much the market moves, I trade trends so when we have a big move over the course of a month ( not a one day pop) I will do very well, but when the market is not moving or choppy action then my account will not move much. I am looking for long term account growth and trading the trend does that for me.
I hope this helps
Thanks for the answer.
So I assume that you had a positive experience so far? Would you rate strong/weak analysis as being very helpful compared to a traditional approach?
Have you ever considered using this indicator for strong weak analysis:
mql5 dot com/en/articles/1472
mql5 dot com/en/code/9088
Checking the strength in higher timeframes & timing your entries in lower timeframesā¦
Or this one:
forexfactory dot com/showthread.php?t=565276
What I am trading
EURUSD
we have continuation following that Dec 30th pinbar reversal, 1.0400 is support, if we can get a daily close below this support then a move down to 1.0000 looks likely, at least that is what I am playing for
Good day for commodities, 2016 top currency CAD is back on top
So far market is not agreeing with me that this will be a great year for USD, but it is just week 1, we have a long ways to go and there will be plenty of ups and downs,
Here is my weekly market review and Strong Weak rankings, I like oil, USD, Gold is a question mark. US Stocks show no sign of ending their up move
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JPY strong on the day while GBP was weakest, US dollar pullback continues
Weakness in Pound and Yen creeping up, I see a couple setups, I will post them later tonight
Trade Setup
Here I am looking at going long USDCAD. This pair has been in a nice stepping pattern going back to last April. We just had a down step that has found support at 1.3200 , if you watch my weekend video I showed this at lower end of uptrending channel. If I am right a move up of 400 pips is possible, if I am wrong exiting the trade on a closing candle below 1.3200 would only cost you 50-100 pips. That is a risk to reward ratio I can live with.
Note; this is not a trade recommendation, please do your own research and only take trades that fit your personal trade plan
