Agreed on NZD. Some pairs showing showing AUD strength. Sometimes NZD leads but these brethren don’t often stray far apart.
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If you lost money today you might need to change your investments
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Have we seen a bottom in stocks?
Are we back in Risk-on mode?
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All green for Yen pairs and the Yen has dropped to last in my rankings
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Strong day for US dollar, If you had bought USDJPY back in September when it first became a SW trade and stayed with it, you would be up 500+ pips today
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I don’t think so. Stocks haven’t bottomed out yet. Euro and GBP strength vs Aud and Nzd weakness are always part of risk-off complex. DXY is in a strong uptrend on higher time frames. S&P500, XAU , US10YRB are now trending lower on longer term charts too. Bond yields are trending higher. This is clearly risk off. The market is pricing in dollar strength. Smart Money will always use critical data (e,g CPI for this week) to discount the market for further shorts/longs. So we are always buying/selling these market rallies. There will be impulse moves and pull backs here and there but bearish momentum is here for now. Its a question of exercising patience waiting for strong trends, marking my key levels and executing on validated signals.This is just my bit of understanding of market dynamics.
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What do you mean by " longer term charts" below is a two-year look at the S&P, we had a recent correction down to the 200 dma where buyers came in and now we are about to complete 3rd straight week of gains. I am not saying you are wrong but I don’t see a “longer-term” downtrend, one can still develop, the current 3 week rally could end in a beartrap, but at this time this is all speculation and the market has not yet laid its cards down. At best this is a coin toss, and I hate investing in 50/50 propositions, I can go to Vegas for those odds, and I don’t go to Vegas
Agreed hence i said its a question of being patient. The S&P 500 has been in consolidation mode since 31/10/2021. There was an almost 600 point drop (impulse move) in January followed by 2 consecutive lower highs. The S&P price has failed to close above the 10 Week SMA for 4 weeks or 4591 price level at the same time, making that level critical resistance that consides with a bearish trendline and 61.8% fib level confluence…The past 3 weeks have seen a major retracement without a doubt This and my other analysis, is were my bearish sentiment continuation comes from. I could be very wrong but its definitely not a Vegas toss. We might be in the beginning of a major trend change and none of us have the crystal ball to predict this
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I think we’d all like to be but I can’t put long bets on US indices until they’re all bullish and their MA’s are stacked right.
I think sometimes the market behaves like a little kid who’s sick but who won’t admit they’re ill because they’re scared. They protest they want to go out to play because if the adults let them go out, that obviously proves they can’t be seriously ill so they don’t have to worry. Meantime their temperature’s through the roof and the bedroom carpet’s covered in puke.
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I don’t think the market really has any direction at the moment. It’s ranging, but in a big channel and making fast moves. GBPJPY is a good example. Since last April it’s been between 149 and 158. It’s quite a big range, but it seems to get to where it is now and turn back around. A lot of charts are similar, especially involving USD and JPY
Will tomorrow and next week be a sell off in stocks and all the yen pairs going down?
Seems the sell off has already started…
Another spike in US inflation sent stocks down in afternoon trading and took out most of the gains in Yen pairs, I am thinking a long USDJPY might be a good trade when interest rates start rising
i’m thinking nzd usd long on monday
The reversal/selloff of yen pairs from Thursday continued on Friday, with the Euro taking the biggest hit
US stocks also continued to selloff as inflation now tops 7% and shows no sign of slowing down,
Looking at the S&P weekly chart, what was a green candle on Thursday, finished the week red. Market can still go either way and the Fed could always say something to spike the market higher, In any case, things are not looking good
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To give you an idea how bad inflation is, my 2018 F150 pickup truck that I bought three years ago for 25K, the dealer is offering to buy it back from me for 30K, I have never seen cars appreciate in value,
Leasing companies are going to clean up in this environment, when customer’s return the vehicle at the end of the lease, the leasing company will be able to sell that car for more than they paid, doubling their profit
This is nuts
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I must remember to short AUDJPY when the market(s) tank. Seems to be a pretty reliable trade?!
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That’s not happening. The reason second hand cars are going up is because of the chip shortage and very few new cars. This means that the people who cycle through lease cars every few years are having to hold onto their cars. There’s fewer new and nearly new cars on the market, so the price is skyrocketing.
And I’ve just had to buy a ‘new’ car because the old one broke down. Talk about bad timing!
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I feel for you, When the chips are back and the market is flooded with new cars and the used car prices collapse, will people just walk away from their car loans the way they walked away from their mortgages in 2008/2009. There is going to be pain before this all sorts itself out
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Already a rollercoaster first half of the day but things are now moving up led by the Euro, Now will stocks follow suite
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