It has been many months since we have had a EURUSD trade, this one has a long way to fall if that is to be
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Risk continues ebbing and flowing like the tide.
There was some excitement with Nvidia up over 10% early in the session - the Nasdaq was the leader of the bunch up over .80% early on - but as mentioned previously without breadth there is seldom follow thru.
All that happened was NSQ reached up to that pivotal point that I highlighted last week and then:
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I messed up on my EUR calculation yesterday, Here is the corrected rankings
EURUSD is NOT a Strong Weak trade, but it still looks attractive on a purely technical trade
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The rollercoaster continues , and we still have the Yen following the stock market, weird!
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Sometimes the risk script differs from what we are taught - especially in FX
With stocks it’s reasonably simple - look to small caps, check breadth of movement etc - yet in FX there is a 2nd variable - two currencies.
Taking up Livermore’s theme of “pivotal points” in price - he detailed price movement in pencil and then noted in red ink where price “reacted” (in his phraseology).
Coupled with this he read each morning all the news relating to economics - thus he traded.
USD/JPY I painted a horiz back last year because I noted a reaction to a price level - classic resistance/support with a gap up end of Aug - couldn’t be clearer in TA .
Like Livermore when a level is red-inked I leave it alone.
The line was re-visited in Dec when price reacted around it - nothing specific until just before Christmas a big push down from the level - now resistance again.
Then on a certain day - the 1st Friday of this month there was cause to paint an up arrow - USD positive news.
Seems USD and it’s TA is dictating price right now rather than risk - ever evolving market I suppose.
and how u settle that this line has something specific?
Livermore wrote the prices in gray pencil as it moved - then in red ink when it reacted (to a level).
This was left side of the chart - his reasoning was that if ‘news’ were to push price in the direction of the red ink then good chance that was where price was headed (right side of chart)
If you click down to HR1 you will see that USD/JPY has ‘reacted’ at the level - i.e. it stopped in it’s tracks for this past 4 hours.
Think always to the right - what is likely to happen next week - we are a week away from the next 1st Friday so reasonable chance some tidal ebbing and flowing ?
Just to add to Livermore’s thinking of “Pivotal Points” - last evening I posted NSQ with such a level - what happened after I posted - price did it’s best to reach up there and…
Think right side when price breaks up past that level…
USD finishes the week with a bang,
Note; I will be traveling all next week and will not be posting updates
Everyone have a great week
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Here’s my workings. I noticed a wrongly labelled column which may have led to confusion. Now corrected for 28th february 2023.
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Strong to Weak Analysis for Wednesday 1st March (St Davids Day in Wales) - Hapus Dewi Sant.
A bit of change.
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I am back! and it does not look like i missed much
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Stocks and the Yen still moving in correlation
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I think alot of the markets are in trading ranges right now based on my strong weak analysis!!
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A mixed day, stocks sold off into the close, that is never a good thing
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There is just no stopping the US dollar as stocks tumble
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USD leads as stocks head lower
USDJPY keeps grinding higher
AUDUSD is a top trade again, will this last longer than the last 3 signals we had on this pair
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Not much happening today
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@Dennis3450 Bringing up an old thread, but just wanting confirmation on how the strong/weak is calculated to consider adding this into an automated strategy.
There is some contradictions in some of the posts.
Am I correct in stating that formula is (Daily Candle closing Price - 200MA on the 4-hr chart) / Current price = %
And is this calculated at the close of the US session? eg: 23:59 market time?
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Price - MA 4hr 200 / Price
I use end of day price
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