That makes sense about the extended. I just took a demo trade off gbpaud off the 200 ema on the hourly for an entry. I am really liking this system. Thanks for answering my questions sir, I appreciate it.
1 Like
“most traders will avoid extended pairs and sometimes even bet against them” FANTASTIC answer. Got me thinking!!
For an action or trade to have true meaning you need to have belief and understanding in what you are doing, not wishy washy belief, but a deep understanding of the logic, see the facts the stats and be confident of the likely out come! Then you have conviction and confidence to drive your belief. Why are us humans compelled to sell into rally’s ? It’s like a disease, a madness. A hard bridge to cross.
What will it take to stop this selling into rallies !!! Watching this blog will help I reckon 
3 Likes
i didnt fully understand this. can you explain once again?
Hi i am fairly new but think i can answer your question.
So because this strategy involves entering into a trade once the currency pair is already ranked number 1 against 8, the trend has already started and can look extended.
By extended he means that price has really pulled away in one directions , for example from the moving averages and manny people would be cautious of entering thinking that it will be due to pull back.
Hope that helps!
2 Likes
Hi Dennis,
Thanks for sharing your strategy!
I have followed on and off since you started it here. I previously have not had time to actually do any trading due to my job which involved being away without internet for 3 months at a time. However that has now changed, so i have just started a demo account.
My plan…
Demo account for 6 months and assess. Possibly go live or stay on demo for another 6 months.
I will use your strong/weak rankings alongside my technical analysis involving price action, support and resistance. 1 hour and 4 hour will be used for entries and i will look at 4 hour/daily/weekly for support/resistance points.
Each trade I will plan first, think about an appropriate place for my stop loss and identify support/resistance points at which point i can gather information on how strong the trade looks to think about taking some profit or let it run.
Plan the trade, Trade the Plan.
I will follow some of your advice on stop loss and will not be placing it too close, but more at a point which if price reach it, it will be clear that the trend has reversed. The stop loss will be more for safety and i imagine i will close most of my losing trades before they hit the stop loss.
One thought i do have is that you have mentioned recently about how we have had no losing trades this year, what would have to happen for a trade to be counted as a losing trade though? as i understand you do not detail your exact entry point and do not have a definitive stop loss?
I also must remind myself that obviously this is a system involving trading trends and evidently it has been working very well in recent months. However markets do go through cycles which can involve ranging conditions. So i must remind to myself that as i believe you said in a post near the beginning… sometimes it is better to simply stay out and not trade when the market is like that.
Once again, thank you for sharing and i look forward to joining in!
2 Likes
okay. so pairs of 1 & 8 might look extended (moved away in one direction for a long time) so people might be awaiting for a pull back towards the MA. but SW analysis shows if the pairs are weakening or not. am i right?
i understood the term.
thanks.
It shows what pairs have been weak and strong in the recent past.
GBP turn to take a hit, things continue to consolidate, time to remain patient, we will make our money once the trends start running again
3 Likes
I want to thank everyone for all the participation and comments, This site used to have a lot more activity, maybe this little thread can help revive things
10 Likes
Hi everyone.
Just want to share my analysis from the 3 previous S/W Trades, the GBPAUD, GBPCAD and CADJPY. As i am just starting i am not yet in any of them.
Regarding the GBPAUD I have attached a picture from the weekly chart which shows that IMO it is at a price level which in the past has acted as strong support/resistance multiple times.
We did actually break above it slightly on the 4 hour but have since came back. I plan to monitor both of the action around this level and possibly look to trade a break, test, continuation of the price level.
It is also worth noting that the 200ma (purple line) is around the same level as the blue box which could provide confluence in acting as resistance or if it breaks through them showing a good healthy trend.
A quick look on the chart to see the size of the moves the last 2 times price broke through the weekly 200ma! definitely one to monitor!
Of course if it acts as resistance there is an option there to go short, however this is not initially part of my strategy to go counter the top S/W Trades.
I have 2 more posts to follow about my analysis for the GBPCAD and CADJPY, i would have liked to put it all in 1 post, however this site waited until i was finished uploading and writing it all before telling me i can only upload one picture at a time 
Post 2/3
As above, the GBPCAD is very similar to the GBPAUD, attached is also a weekly chart showing current price at an interesting level that has acted as support/resistance multiple times in the past.
I will also be standing by to monitor this one. If it does manage to break the resistance then hopefully a big move can develop.
Post 3/3
Again apologies for the multiple posts but since i had already typed it out etc it would be a waste not to still post it.
Another previous S/W Trade, the CADJPY. This is of course pulled back a bit since it became a S/W trade. Of course the question is, is it just a pull back or reversal?
My plan is to monitor it and see if it reaches the previous high, which is the top blue box from the picture attached, then i will see how price behaves around this previous resistance point with a potential short entry. This area has also been quite active in the last year with 3-4 times in the past year.
I am also open to the option of price rising to the purple trend line, which has only had 2 hits up until now but it is a possibility and could also line up with the 50 ema to act as resistance by the time price reaches it.
If i do enter the trade, my first target i would be looking for is the previous low (bottom blue box) which has also been quite an active spot this past year.
So thats all for me right now, just waiting it out, not jumping in and waiting for price to come to me.
Enjoy your weekend everyone! again apologies for the multiple posts and hope you don’t mind me positing this stuff here.
1 Like
Tks Mike Vulcan for your analysis, i think GBP pair just pull back before make higher high !
1 Like
Happy Easter everyone
As you can see by my SW rankings it was a week of consolidations. When the distance between #1and 8 is less than 2%, I consider this a neutral market
1 Like
The one thing to keep in mind about the Yen is it likes to move from Strong to Weak and back to Strong, and it can make these moves without any obvious reversal signal, That is just the way the Yen moves
3 Likes
price moved back to the direction of our top SW trades, is the market just teasing us or could we see some breakouts following this pullback
It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Had a massive drop for some reason.
The Pound does not want to give up that Top spot, and we get a new SW trade GBPCHF, I have not seen this one in a long while, Looking at the chart it looks poised for a breakout,
1 Like
1 Like
Easiest Money ever earned!!!