Just out of curiosity, when would we be inclined to capitulate on a losing bet ?
CAD has taken the #1 spot just two weeks ago it was #8, but that is how these markets move, we don’t fight the trend but just ride it until it ends or changes direction.
CADCHF is out newest Top SW Trade, this was a short trade back in February maxing out at +205 pips, now we will ride it to the upside, if we can clear the 200 dma then 0.7900 is a good target and that is 300+ pips away
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It is best to make that call before you enter the trade, identify an area of support and place your stop well below that. Personally, I try to exit most trade manually and not let a stop take me out, I also manage my risk in the size of the position, so even if a trade goes several hundred pips against me it still will be a small % of my account. On the GBPCAD trade, this was up 140 pips, a breakeven stop after such a move would have been the wise move
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Hey Dennis.
Remember this?
Just for fun, I took a small position in CADCHF, here is my technical analysis of this pair. Weekly chart ( not shown) gave us a bullish engulfing candle over the previous week, looking at the daily ( bottom left) we see this was a Top SW Trade first entered back on Feb 5th, it then took a full month to top out at 205 pips, it then reversed that entire move in just 4 days, that is bullish. Now we are coming up to the 200 ma on the 4hr chart ( top right chart) I would expect a pullback at its first attempt to cross this ma, as long as price stays above the 200 ma on the 1hr chart ( lower right chart) I will ride out any pullback, the second attempt at the 4hr 200 ma will be important, fail twice could be trouble for this trade, When price gets above the 4hr 200ma then that ma should give us support, another important technical indicator if price continues to move up will be the crossover of the 1hr 200 ma over the 4hr 200ma. This will be a fun experiment as we wait for a new SW trade
And now the present.
Look…I know it’s hindsight now. And it’s an evil thing to do. But, I sure do remember when you did this 26 days ago. I thought it was such a good trade to get into. But, I just don’t go outside of the JPY.
Anyway, it’s interesting. Maybe looking at it at the larger time frames would have meant some good success with it, back then.
I don’t know, I just remember it quite well.
That’s all.
Mike
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It was actually a very accurate assessment by Dennis, I think 
The 1st attempt at the 4H 200MA did indeed fail, as anticipated, but the subsequent pullback turned out to be greater than expected as it did break through the 1H 200MA - which is not really surprising - just look at the steepness of that 34MA on the Daily (the proxy for the 200MA on 4H chart).
But it didn’t see any follow-through below the 1H MA and soon crossed back over it. The price then messed around between the 4H and 1H MAs for a while …and then the 1H and 4H MAs crossed and, as Dennis suggested, it got interesting thereafter…
A strongly sloping MA going against the direction of the potential trade, and following several successive days of extended moves, is, at least in my experience, a good warning of a probable strong pull-back. Best to back off. let it play itself out, and then join in the next attack (a lesson from Sun Tzu. “The Art of War” here? 
).
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GBP retakes the #1 spot to close the week
From a purely technical aspect we got a double bottom and a nice “W” breakout Bull move, enter on a break of the center of the W would have got you a quick 100 pips. Lots of ways to play these and as you said, in hindsight, there are lots of ways to play these
CAD and GBP in a little game of leap frog, Top trade GBPCHF inched higher to +83 Pips, while CADCHF was up on the day but still under it’s entry point
US stocks rally as the Yen tanks and our Top Strong Weak trades just keep winning
First, CADCHF turned positive today, and GBPCHF (see chart below) hit the +100 pip mark making our Top Strong Weak Trades a perfect 11 for 11 in making at least 100 pips, with a little follow through tomorrow and we could see CADCHF become our 12th winning trade of the year against zero losers.
It kills me to read all the post from newbies with stories of losing all their money, If they would just join our little group their world would change
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Hey @Dennis3450 pretty sure your thread has opened the eyes of a lot of newbie traders (even the guru’s here) and saved many of them time and more importantly money… Your doing good…
Still holding CADJPY after yesterdays 100+ pip ride to the north…looks like its out of puff today…
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Hello Dennis,
Kudos on this great thread.
I’ve been lurking here for some time, and I have to say that I’m impressed.
Years ago, when I first started learning about currency trading, one of the first things I wondered about was a way to rank the majors according to strength. I tried several formulas of my own design – none as good as yours – and gave up.
Over the years, I have looked at other strength meters and heat maps, and have been disappointed with all of them – until you came along.
Your Strong/Weak Analysis is the best strength analyzer for EOD trading that I’ve seen.
I hope you will keep doing what you’re doing here in this thread 
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I echo these very same thoughts! This has been very useful for me for a little while now during my migration towards longer term trading.
But, in fact, this same analysis (providing the most probable divergence between currencies) is useful even for intraday trading methods…thank you Dennis 
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Strong/Weak is nothing but logic. No other instrument trades in pairs. So no other instrument offers you the ability to leverage one pair’s strength to the others weakness. Over the years, I have seen this group grow in numbers, and I am confident it will continue to do so. This growth is all due to Dennis’ daily dedication to keep his followers updated on the strategies performance.
My hope for the future is to digress from the merits if the strategy (which are self evident) to the timing of entry/exits.
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As the Deep State criminals running this country push for another false flag war, our top trades had another good day, both GBPCHF and CADCHF posted gains on the day, If these lunatics manage to blow up the world tomorrow at least we still have our Top SW Trades
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my analysis have become better after i found you and this content.
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SORRY ITS GBH/CHF not eur/usd
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Also I closed the trade GBP/CHF as the trade doubled my pathetic little trading account, that may not be sound T/A however when your almost blown up and it’s on its last breath I think it’s a friggin good idea!!! , best win I have had in a while, If I can find some support at that centre line and it’s still on your list I may re enter.
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hi Trade which renko size and option you use ?
thanks
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