Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

FX_Johnny · May 21, 2018, 9:07am

From Post 1267 “Dennis has wisely chosen the JPY, because it is always the quote currency in any currency pair, and therefore calculating the Strong/Weak rankings never entails currency inversions, which are a nuisance and can be a source of math errors. Consider, for example, using the USD as the reference currency. The USD is the quote currency in 4 of the 7 major pairs, but it is the base currency in the other 3 pairs – which means that, in 3 out of 7 calculations, the price of a USD-pair must be inverted in order to place the USD in the denominator.”

Nothing wise about it, only a convenience, and maybe lack of computing skills; however, anytime data is manually input into Excel, it can be a source of mathematical error, no matter which pair is used, but the actual calculation should not be an insurmountable problem. The price does NOT have to be inverted in order to use the USD, the formula does but it is hardly a “nuisance” as Excel does all the work.

Another thing that is misstated here many time is that the pairs are ranked against the JPY, a concept that I struggled with; however, I have now realized, pairs are just ranked against each other. In fact, this is so simple of a concept, it makes a mockery of Currency Strength Meters everywhere!

Here is the USD spreadsheet for comparison, if 2% is the required spread, nearly 4 signals / pairs against the USD - JPY, GBP, EUR, NZD

PS: another thing that is misrepresented here is that SIGNAL and TRADE are interchangeable when mentioned the daily S/W posting, and until someone points me to the actual claimed entry price, I will continue to point this fact out to the new readers.

Clint · May 21, 2018, 11:33am

You’re a bitchy little fellow, aren’t you.

BigLots · May 21, 2018, 1:28pm

Sounds like he has come over form Forex Factory, everyone has something to prove over there, that forum is a mess, hope this thread can stay on track.

Alexkhatoun · May 21, 2018, 5:43pm

I agree with BigLots . It’s best to completely ignore him and carry on as normal.
Sounds like a cry for attention .

FX_Johnny · May 21, 2018, 9:48pm

Let’s move on, what actual trades has anyone made?

NZDUSD is in retracement mode and ‘losing’ pips!

What is today’s signal pair?

Dennis3450 · May 21, 2018, 11:14pm

Enough with all the small talk, let’s get back to what this thread is all about MAKING PIPS!

SW ranking we see USD and CAD continue to lead and GBP is back to # 8, which is great as we are already short GBPUSD which hit a new low giving us +182 pips, and GBPCAD has finally broken to a new low giving us +97 pips, 3 more pips, and GBPCAD* will be our 20th winning trade in a row

NZDUSD* is pulling back but this one has already given us +200 pips, any more is just gravy

Dennis3450 · May 21, 2018, 11:32pm

Behold the power of the 200 moving average on the 1hr chart, as I have discussed previously, pullbacks to the 200 ma on the 1hr chart make great entry points, This is one of our Top SW Trades GBPCAD* and look at all the pullbacks and opportunities to go short, the market is just taunting you with this one

Dennis3450 · May 22, 2018, 12:55am

It is official, GBPCAD has crossed the +100 pip mark making us a perfect 16 winning trades in 2018 and 20 in a roll going back to December of last year. We have had a lot of nice streaks in the past but this is the longest one I have documented

let’s keep this going

Note; GBPCAD is now sitting on the 200 day moving average, this is major support, a bounce here is expected, but if price cuts through and closes below the 200 tomorrow then we could be looking at a long-term move down,

Sbrandi · May 22, 2018, 1:45am

Hi Dennis,

Excellent trades, at the moment I am short the following

NZDCAD - + 299 Pips
EURUSD - + 75 Pips
GBPUSD - + 218 Pips
GBPCAD - + 282 Pips

I missed the initial entry on NZDUSD which is pulling back now after a +210 Pips move, I wonder if it can break through the heavy weekly support around 0.68500, where there is Piercing Pattern + Inverted Hammer + Bullish Engulfing present. All are strong reversal candlestick patterns.

IVx · May 22, 2018, 6:19am

Congrats !! 20 in a row in any system is a result, and to do so catching 100+ moves is stunning.

twiks · May 22, 2018, 7:37am

Hello Dennis.
Thanks for the great work you’re doing here. It will be great if you could use one of your past successful trade to illustrate how to use this SW analysis along with TA to enter a trade. You can possibly show the SW pair for the day, the chart, the entry price, your TA for taking the trade, your target and all that.
Thanks.

Dennis3450 · May 22, 2018, 8:41am

Now this is the type of reply I enjoy reading, congrats Sbrandi

watch NZD as AUD is already strong and NZD normally will follow AUD

Dennis3450 · May 22, 2018, 10:51pm

One of the slowest days we have seen this year

FX_Johnny · May 22, 2018, 11:04pm

Never happen, read the thread, all you see for reports is the MAXIMUM pip range of the S/W pair; it’s not a trading plan, only a signal system

Never see the signal date, signal price, signal direction, and exit in the same post, fair enough, but you think some traders would chime in with some actual results from time to time.

Not to say it doesn’t work, but a clear record of drawdown before trend continues is not a hard thing to track

Also, using the ADR or a multiple thereof, eg. 2 x ADR, has more logic than just saying, take profit at 200 pips.

WHY? for example the average daily range can be between 52 and 162. Probably a trailing percentage stop might be best but even then, retracement take you out, then trend returns. It is a traders constant battle to find the best Take Profit.

Clint · May 22, 2018, 11:12pm

Are you still here?

If the methodology in this thread doesn’t work for you, just move on …

… to some other thread, or (better yet) some other forum.

Dennis3450 · May 22, 2018, 11:17pm

Okay , enough of this, signal date and price is clearly shown for each new signal, if you have not figured that out it is the closing price of the daily candle, price movement is clearly shown in the shaded areas of the charts I post, If you are concern about draw downs, you are welcome to figure them out, as we have not had any losing trades this year it been kind of a mute subject. Johnny if you keep pissing off everyone you will be asked to leave,

FX_Johnny · May 23, 2018, 12:19am

You forgot the part about actual results; why are you upset with me, the other guy asked about showing some trades, please reply to him, thanks.

Dennis3450 · May 23, 2018, 12:45am

Hi Twiks

I prefer to keep my personal trading private, I will tell you I do most of my trading during the Asian session, that is when I will enter on a new signal, I usually will take some profits at 100 pips and let the rest run, I also like to use pullbacks to the 200 ma on 1hr chart for reentry . I keep things very simple, I don’t listen to much news, Price Action tells me everything I need to know. If I am posting charts then you know that pair has my attention

Dennis3450 · May 23, 2018, 1:07am

Lets take a bigger look at GBPCAD, as I said yeasterday the daily 200 ma is major support and we are seeing price respect that support but will it hold, one of two things are likely to happen, one is we swing higher and test the March highs, or price breaks down below the 200 ma and old lows near 1.600 come into play, either way, we are looking at a +1,000 pip move, and I want a piece of that, Currently GBPCAD* is an SW trade, so my bias is to the down side, lets keep an eye on the 200ma on the 1hr chart, price has not spent more than a few hours above that ma since March,

May the pips be with us

vipz0124 · May 23, 2018, 3:52am

Hi, i just joined yesterday, quick question, are u using exponential MV on 34 and 200? or simple?