[quote=“krugman25, post:1478, topic:77959”]
not setting hard stops because it locks in a loss.
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Yes, I do not like stop loss orders as they don’t stop a loss but quarantee it, I will have an exit point that if price closes on the daily chart below a certain price then I will take the loss, there is risk of a bigger loss but I also will not get whip sawed out of a trade because of a news event. Now using stops to lock in profits or at break even is a different matter
A little housekeeping
YTD we see everyone is down against the Yen,
Yes, an interesting aspect to fathom what trading plan would work here? In recent posts for instance, the advice was to Take Profit at 100 pips on the EURUSD and move to Break Even; assuming just simple 2 split in the trade, there would be no trade now as it is closed out.
But the comment on the EURJPY, which at the time had moved 220+ pips negative was implying, hanging there, trust the signals. Now is is quite within reach of -300 pips today.
Glad to see the update by Dennis and will follow keenly.
we don’t like CHF, take the 2nd pick EURAUD down 123 pips today
edit: or 2nd by 2nd = GBPAUD - down massive pips today
What’s the reason for not liking CHF?
Hi Dennis, I suppose like many others, I have found you thru a different forum and thankfully here I am. I watched the video (subscribed also), read the thread, and created my own spreadsheet this afternoon prior to you posting your latest analysis. My pairs are in the same order of strength, although the percentages are off just a little…so I was pleased to see that.
I’ll paper trade tonight, watching the GBPAUD and the EURAUD. In my analysis, there isn’t enough separation of strength vs weakness between the other pairs…am I right? Looking at the price action history of G/A and E/A, it’s difficult to imagine these will travel much further south. You have shown examples in the past, and have noted that other traders would give up on these pair because it is traditionally categorized as waaaayyyy oversold. I’ll be tickled pink to watch drop some more to show me that, indeed, this approach works.
Once the trading day is over and you do your analysis and find the SW pair, what other things do you look for to determine entry? Which time frame do you prefer to trade on?
Thanks for sharing your approach; especially in such detail!
this is good question, i am also new and trying to figure this SW out. hope to hear from you guys.
Thanks
As far as my SW pairs I do not look at much else, If we have two currencies over several weeks growing farther apart in the rankings until they hit #1 and #8, there really is nothing more to look at, the charts or news is just going to confuse you and create doubt. I will at times take trades based on long term price action, a favorite of mine is the Head and Shoulder , if I find one forming over several months, that can be a powerful signal of a long term trend change, on a shorter term the pinbar ( sometimes called a hammer) with a long tail can be a good reversal signal. I do watch the daily , 4hr and 1hr charts and how price reacts to the 200 moving average, these moving averages can make for a good entry point on a pullback.
I hope this helps
Dennis–So, with this GBPAUD pair, are you entering on a pull back or just buying it whenever it breaks the 200 ema trusting it will go down?
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It looks like this has changed now though…AU has become weak
I believe, and correct me if I’m wrong guys, but purely for the basis of record keeping, the Close price of that day is used as the reference for Entry.
Now, every trader may have an individual trading plan for exact entry, stop loss (if any) take profit, for example, wait & watch the next day for retracement entry
" we do not follow outdated failed indicators. My SW Rankings are based on pure price action, price action is the only indicator that pays"
Can you elaborate on that some more please?
Because the 200 SMA is an indicator, plain and simple; and they usually get caned for being lagging at the best of times.
Plus, what do you mean by Pure Price Action? The previous day’s close? Nothing new there, everyone follows that for price action, eg. Key Reversal, Engulfing Candles
As a matter of interest, the calculation for the USD pairs give identical S/W results for this same turmoil period with a new pair everyday! See the pairs in the Trade column and compare with Dennis spreadsheet
As we go into the first hour of London trading, it is reassuring to know that GBPAUD is still confirming S/W in real time
Yes, AUD, it has backed off a little weak, but not the weakest, so not a total turn around; hopefully that wouldn’t happen from 1 day to the next.
Perhaps the GBP news soon can turn the focus back to that currency!
GBP is strong now and so is CHF to a degree, How do you guys manage your trades when the strength jumps around alot on a daily basis,
I have an indicator which seems reliable in alerting in strength of trade and has supplied good entries, but for long term holds i cant see how it can be applied consistently
