someone has to inject a bit of common sense, every time you guys get over confident and claim success, the market takes revenge.
and where are all the real live traders still holding any open positions on S/W GBPJPY now?
probably licking their woundsâŚ
There were plenty of signals on the one hour and half hour charts to take the money and run
Thanks you Clint.
Actually I knew the answer was somewhere in the thread.
But I didnât want to read almost 2K post. So just asked a SASQ and hoped someone would give me a link (like you did!).
Ah, actually you didnât give me a link, you gave me 3 links.
I owe you 2 more likes 
Actually I donât trade END OF DAY.
I am day trader. And the strength indicator I use gives me the pips movements for the last 15M, 1H, and 4H (1D too, though I donât care about this one).
I am almost a collector of strength indicators, and like to study every one I found.
Actually I closed half at 100 pips on the way up, closed the remainder just above 100 on the way down when the news hit the wires. I will be waiting for a chance to re-enter, as the fall is probably over-done given that it happened on a Friday. No wound licking, just a bit disappointed that this turned around the way it did. But I banked enough for a week.
For those that are looking to wrap a strat around this thread. This is the GBPNZD identified because of relevant S-W weightings as posted by Dennis. Trade still open. You can see how after the break of support on the daily it was tested from the downside confirming the likely downside move before the Brexit circus continued. Entry late because the days opening was a reasonable entry but I was at work! The weekly shows the decisions that now have to be made regarding key upcoming levels
maybe, but nothing to do with this trading method
absolutely, thanks for sharing, but wrong thread again
seriously, you donât know? trend following systems need trending markets for success; especially this one that signals so LATE in any trend
donât believe me? you can believe the charts then, check them out
This is, of course, an absolute truth. And has been openly acknowledged on this thread in some recent discussions concerning summer trading. There has been some attempt at quantifying this by describing how big a percentage difference should be between the two extreme currencies in order to offer greater potential as a long-term trend rather than a fluctuation.
However, whether late entry is a bad or good thing is more like a double-edged sword. In order to identify new potential trend starts at an early stage one requires a method that is far more sensitive to smaller moves than this SW approach. But this usually means a lot of potential starts end up as fizzles and fakeouts and the losses incurred from these failures can raise the breakeven point of the eventual successful trend to a level which is maybe close to where this pair would first appear as a SW trade.
In other words, when a trend appears as an SW pair it is already established as a trend. All the other potential starts, which fizzled and faked, donât even appear on the radar here.
One thing we can say is that every trend has a start and an end. So what is the biggest risk of failure:
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To try to enter every new potential start at the earliest possible point and take the risk that many of these will end in failure, in order to catch the rare one that does take off?
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Or wait for identification of an established trend before even entering, but risking that you happen to hit it right on its peak before it reverses?
I think the history of this method has shown that these established trends often have enough gas left in the tank for at least another 100 pips, if not 200-1000 pips.
I think the answer is not a matter of right or wrong, it is purely an issue of understanding the principles underlying various approaches and deciding which suits oneâs own trading style and strategy.
As with gas and oil exploration, you donât immediately drill every time you find a patch of crude underground. You look for the areas with the biggest potential and ignore the smaller ones.
But identifying the potential is only the very start of the traderâs process. After they have settled on the pair then they need to apply their trading strategy to it to evaluate specific entries, targets and stop-exits. Just as drilling technology will define how much oil you can get out of the ground and at what cost, so your trading strategy will define how you can optimise your results.
But even this is not enough. We have identified the areas offering potential value, we have identified how we are going to access and extract the pips from that potential, but there is still one major stage left.
We still need to define our risk/money management parameters. For example we may take partial profits to offset some stop loss risk, or we may lift stops to breakeven at some point, etc.
Yes, this approach does get one into a trade late in the development of the trend, but like any trading scenario, itâs success depends on these three things: selecting the right pair potential, applying an efficient method and working that method with sound risk/equity management techniques - these together are what make the trader in the long run, not just getting in quick.
As an aside I would also add that I do not really even consider this SW approach as a trend-following method. It is an indicator, based on mathematical formulas, that pops out a series of numbers and you trade the biggest in one direction against the biggest in the other. In other words, I would call this a divergence indicator. It simply measures seven major currencies against a fixed reference point (in this case the yen). Then it takes the two extremes in opposite directions and packs them together into a trade.
Its only guarantee of working is that these two extreme and diverging movers are likely to continue to diverge. The truth is no one ever knows when any move is going to end, and trading is all about the probabilities. This particular approach to identifying potential candidates has shown that it has these probabilities, firmly, effectively and consistently on its side.
I actually made about 185 pips yesterday on GBP JPY. I canât boast too much as it was a hedge trade but nevertheless it gave me a good outcome.
very nice summary Manxx
let me rephrase, how can i obtain the indicator that you show in the graphic. thank you, eric
Fun week, Top SW Trade GBPJPY gave us exactly +200 pips before reversing that is now +200 pips from our last 3 Top SW Trades, but can we make it 4 in a row, New TOP SW Trade is CHFJPY, I am looking at the weekly chart below, and you can see a triple top at 118.00, this is a tough one, daily had a pinbar so we could have more of a pullback before moving higher, one could also buy the breakout above 118.00 ,
I see the trolls are back, I prefer to just ignore them, but if you guys want to have fun with them, have at it,
I donât use indicators so not sure what you are asking for, how about a screen shot
Heâs asking about the screenshot you posted, I think itâs a phone?
It has percentages on it, and he thinks it by an indicator
Blind leading the blind here
Hey, Snow Troll
[Removed due to forum policy violation]
Edit:
Hey, Snow Troll
I hope you saw my post before the Moderator cleaned it up and took out all the bad words.
In fact, I hope you printed it out and pinned it up on your wall.
Iâm just trying to help them out, itâs obvious neither has any idea what the other is talking about and yet itâs obvious what he is asking for
Why didnât you step in and help your such an angle?
From Snowman - Why didnât you step in and help your such an angle?
obviously English not your first language. I think you meant âwhy didnât you step in and help youâre such an angel?â
youâre is the common contraction used for âyou areâ
just trying to be as helpful as you 