Trading using Pivot Points, Fibs and Fib Extension

[eswairuri]

Personal journal to record how my effective pivot points, Fibs and Fib extension, trendlines and channels work for me. Mainly trading GBP/AUD and NZD/USD. I previously traded AUD/USD.

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Analysis based off 4hr entries based off 15 min.
After the major bullish push today, I caught the downtrend after structure was broken on 15 min and banked 110 pips.

[eswairuri]

8/8/2019
G/A has come back to test the 4 hr bearish trendline. Bearish structure was broken long ago, and market is now bullish. Market now at 88% fib level on the current drop. I’m waiting for 15 min structure to be broken and a higher high to form, then enter on the next higher low for a bullish move.
Current bias is bullish, if the market breaks the structure for a downtrend, I intend to ride it till S1
The market is currently struggling to break yesterday’s 15 min pivot point.

[eswairuri]

UPDATE.
Market has already dropped 34 PIPS from point B (support turned resistance).
4HR, MA & EMA have crossed bearish. Support broken and consolidation off 15min broken. The trendline has also been broken off the 15 min. H4 has closed a strong bearish candle. Now waiting for a slight retest, or a formation of a lower high to enter on 5min and ride the market till S1 that’s like 64 pips.
Not forgetting that on H1 the market has broken R1. It’s possible it will drop till H1’s Pivot point (121 Pips).

Target for the day 100 PIPS

,

[eswairuri]

Closed trade with +34 pips . This is after the market started printing dojis, indicating exhaustion.
Possible that I got out too early, but my SL (set in 1 min lower high) was hit.
Good run today.

[eswairuri]

S1 TARGET HIT.
Overall 84 PIP drop after BOS on 15 min.
Should the market Break S1 expect a retest, then a 95 pip drop to the next S2

[eswairuri]

The market was consolidating off the 15 mins. Waited for the lower high (retest to form). Entered trade, with TP set at S1. The fundamentals pushed market my way up like 50 Pips. I moved my stop loss from the previous lower high, to my fibs -61%, anticipating that the market will hit my TP. However, I have been taken out but managed to bank +20 Pips.

Since fundamentals caused the gap in the market, anticipating the gap to be fully closed, then look for another opportunity to enter the market.
I try to stay out of the market during fundamentals, I placed the trade an hour before the news.

[eswairuri]

Entered second trade after s1 was broken , I entered on the next engulfing after the retest.
My TP was at s2. But after the H4 candle closed, I knew there would be a retest, and opted to cash in.
Overall pips for the day 70.
I think i’m good with this, till monday Cheers.

By The Way; this is my most successful week. Almost 300 Pips

[Greenish_Eric]

I really don’t get Fibs. Do people just throw that on top of charts and pretend there’s a bigger picture in play?

[eswairuri]

@Greenish_Eric Fibs just help me in locating where to enter and exit the market. Say if a lower high was formed at a 38.2% level, I’ll expect the market to drop till -27% of the same fib.
It just helps to know the major prz levels and the expected TP zones

[eswairuri]

Weekly Analysis,
GBP/AUD seems to be in a troublesome area, it can’t seem to break this area. On the weekly the market is a bullish market, although one might ague that structure was broken but to me the structure still maintains till point X is broken.

On 30 min, market seems to be in a descending triangle, and we all know that the breakout can be of either side. Currently market seem to have a bullish breakout. I’m waiting for a higher low to be formed (on 5 min) to get in a bullish trade. This is also to make sure that the breakout wasn’t a fakeout.

Chart showing the descending triangle

5 min chart where I’m waiting for the lower high to be formed

Happy trading y’all.

[eswairuri]

BOOM! The move was 48 PIPS and still going.

[eswairuri]

Easy 114 PIPS. Price broke through P went all the way up to R1

[eswairuri]

Today I took a sell order out of impulse. To be honest I think I had FOMO; needless to say the trade tanked major and my stop loss was hit. Folks that’s how I lost 24 PIPS .

Silly mistakes and itchy fingers.

Lessons Learnt,

1. If the market is bearish, HOLD OFF MY FINGERS TILL A LOWER HIGH IS FORMED.
2. Wait for an Engulfing to form completely.
3. Check for the DAMN TRENDLINES!
4. Keep off consolidating markets.

[eswairuri]

Market just dropped +100 PIPS. What just happened? I expected a sort of retracement on that bullish engulfing H4 candle, but not this, in less than an hour, the market has dived. Staying out for now, till the market gives a clear signal of its trend.

[MaydayJane]

Are Fibs really that important to beginner traders or is this much on an expert level?

[eswairuri]

@MaydayJane, I think FIBS are something that every trader should have their eyes on. The levels on fibs are considered major price resistance zones. When one is broken, I fully expect the market to continue to the second one. Many people use Fibs, and hence the price resistance zones are almost self fulfilling.

[justshell]

probably a trump tweet LOL he’s been manipulating the markets like crazy lately

[justshell]

it’s just extra confirmation, but not necessary. If it helps you make trading decisions on your positions then go ahead and use it, but try backtesting it and see if you find it helpful

[eswairuri]

I think that must have been it. Here I was expecting a bullish move, only for the market to drop like crazy. I have to look out for those tweets.

[MaydayJane]

Got it! Thanks for the help!