FlyPippin, let me start by complimenting you on your way of thinking. There are those of us who insist on being “traders,” meaning we have to be glued to the charts and jumping in and out of positions. Taking an investor approach is probably a lot more sane and has a better chance of succeeding than trying to scalp the m5. However…
I started my trading career with futures and watched many of my friends/associates lose their accounts with the premise, “Hogs just can’t go any lower, I’m gonna stick it out.” In fact, it was not uncommon to see them adding positions as prices reached what they thought were extreme levels, only to see the commodity reach yet another “extreme.” Stochastics can provide us a good education, i.e., “It is oversold, so I’m gonna buy.” “Now, it’s way oversold, so I’m gonna buy some more.” “Now, it’s way, way oversold and I have a margin call.” The point is, we can certainly take an investor’s approach to the currency market. But, we can also be smart about it, entering and exiting on only the broadest indications and saving ourselves from dramatic moves against us.
Look at the weekly for gbp/usd. Clearly, there are five points of support in the neighborhood of 1.5100-1.5400, resistance sets in about 1.6300, and there is another series of resistance points around 1.6700 to 1.7000. If you are going to invest, why not try to pick good places to start and stop? Of course, s/r levels may not hold, that’s why we call it “gamblin’” as any other investment, and that’s why we would get out if they didn’t hold.
George Soros went long $800 million gold and dumped it in 2011. He was the first major player to get out. From late 2011 to now, gold has dropped from 1700 to 1200. Hmmm…maybe we just need to watch what Soros does. On the other hand, I do remember a situation in the 80’s where one of those guys who plays in his league got stubborn, “It can’t go any lower,” and lost billions. Just mho, I will always trade with a stop-loss.