Trend Following All Markets With Unlimited Upside And Limited Dowside

Hi godzilla,

There are a few ways you can choose to exit and they have their pros and cons.

  1. You can consider when price trades a certain pip value below the 50 EMA.

  2. You can exit when candle close below the 50 EMA.

This is something that a trader has to decide and there’s no right or wrong about it.

Be consistent with your exits and you will be fine. Trading isn’t about find the best parameters to trade with.

It’s about losing small and winning big. That’s trend following for you. Hope that helps!

Rayner

Thanks Rayner,

It helped me a lot.

Could you please look at this IT stock chart (DAILY)

Does the uptrend has been ended in this chart ? I see the structure looks broken and stock has fallen.
you know stock has fallen because company has declared SPLITS and BONUS stocks . …although company has given more stocks because of the split & bonus stock …but I am actually in loss now because of the price fall after declaration.

I am now worried. Should I keep the stocks or exit ?

STOCK CHART


You may want to see IT index chart as well…
SECTOR CHART


Need help …I am unable to decide what should be the right thing now .

Please guide.

Hey godzilla,

Firstly i can’t recommend to you what to buy or sell, it’s not appropriate as i’m not a financial adviser.

What you need is a proper trading plan that tells you when to get in and out. If you don’t have it, please stop trading and first develop a trading plan.

Rayner

Thanks Rayner.

You’re welcome.

Let me know if there’s anything, i’ll be glad to help.

Rayner

Market analysis this week…

Rayner

Hi Rayner ,

some says one should not trade more than 4 symbols in parallel…because it become difficult to manage trade for more than 4 scrips.

Do you follow the same ? how many symbols you trade in parallel

please comment.

Hey godzilla,

Not sure what you mean by parallel, but i trade about 60 markets.

If you are a day trader then a few pairs to trade is fine. But when you are a trend follower, you want to expose yourself to more markets, to increase odds of capturing a trend.

And yes you have to beware of correlation between different markets, like gold and silver. S&P and nasdaq… etc

Rayner

Something to bend your brain on, the following excerpt from the “Original Turtle Rules” paper that has been in circulation details the risk management rules followed by the Turtles. It may not be something to exactly follow today, but the concepts one can derive from it can be used in establishing your approach to risk management.

"The Turtles were given risk management rules that limited the number of Units that we could maintain at any given time, on four different levels. In essence, these rules controlled the total risk that a trader could carry, and these limits minimized losses during prolonged losing periods, as well as during extraordinary price movements

An example of an extraordinary price movement was the day after the October, 1987 stock market crash. The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by several percentage points overnight to boost the confidence of the stock market and the country. The Turtles were loaded long in interest rate futures: Eurodollars, TBills and Bonds. The losses the following day were enormous. In some cases, 20% to 40% of account equity was lost in a single day. But these losses would have been correspondingly higher without the maximum position limits.

The limits were:

[B]Level: Type - Maximum Units[/B]
1: Single Market - 4 Units
2: Closely Correlated Markets - 6 Units
3: Loosely Correlated Markets - 10 Units
4: Single Direction (Long or Short) - 12 Units

[B]Single Markets[/B] – A maximum of four Units per market.

[B]Closely Correlated Markets[/B] – For markets that were closely correlated there could be a maximum of 6 Units in one particular direction (i.e.6 long units or 6 short units). Closely correlated markets include: heating oil and crude oil; gold and silver; Swiss franc and Deutschmark; TBill and Eurodollar, etc.

[B]Loosely Correlated Markets[/B] – For loosely correlated markets, there could be a maximum of 10 Units in one particular direction. Loosely correlated markets included: gold and copper; silver and copper, and many grain combinations that the Turtles did not trade because of positions limits.

[B]Single Direction[/B] – The maximum number of total Units in one direction long or short was 12 Units. Thus, one could theoretically have had 12 Units long and 12 Units short at the same time. The Turtles used the term loaded to represent having the maximum permitted number of Units for a given risk level. Thus, “loaded in yen” meant having the maximum 4 units of Japanese Yen contracts. Completely loaded meant having 12 Units. Etc."

-Adrian

Thanks Adrian,

I think that’s good information.

The volatility of a trader’s equity curve could be determined by the number of correlated markets he trades as well as the size he puts on.

And personally i feel that the turtle traders style of trading is way too aggressive. In today’s market, the draw downs would be immensely great.

Rayner

Most if not all of them use less leverage and target lower returns. Jerry Parker said he targets 20% annual returns now but when he left the program the average Turtle was earning 200%. Ha!

-Adrian

Thank You for posting this! Very helpful information.

Recent times have been hard. I saw he was manage over a billion prior to 2010 and today his fund shrank to 100 million.

It’s difficult times for most CTAs right now. But dunn and mulvaney are doing pretty well right now.

One of the key reasons of disparity between CTAs performance is their portfolio selection.

Alot relied heavily on currencies in the past to trend, that’s why they got great performance. These days currencies haven’t been trending as much and led to the demise of a number of CTAs.

Rayner

This week’s market analysis…

Rayner

Hi Rayner,

I am facing an issue with trend following approach…

suppose you are in a long trade…and price is in your favor.

Now you find a long bearish engulfing candle in uptrend …would you exit the trade ?

You may be wondering why I’m asking this …

Look at this chart …


Hey godzilla,

I won’t exit the trade till my stoploss is hit.

No matter what candlestick pattern it forms against me or indicator suggest otherwise, i let it run it’s due course.

Rayner

Thanks for your time and help.

Ok…But you know why i am worried …look at this chart (daily)

You see someone who had entered at green arrow if he would exited at long bearish candle …might have bagged some profit …is not it ? … market starts falling after that big red candle.

I am worried at this part.


all i can say is you need to trade with a trading plan and not based on how you feel at a particular point in time.

Yes price could retrace lower after the bearish candle, likewise it can also breakout higher.

So what is right or wrong? You can’t determine your cause of action after the fact, you have to trade with the current information at hand, which is now.

Whatever happens next is irrelevant as you stick to your initial plan. And if you trading plan has an edge, over the long run you will come out ahead.

Rayner

Thanks Rayner,

Those are very much helpful. I have one more query.

I see you hold positions for a long time … more than a month sometimes…

How do you do that ? Do you rollover contracts or do you select only far month contracts ?

It depends what instruments you are trading.

If cfds then usually the broker does not require you to rollover.

If futures then yes you have to manually roll to the next month.

Rayner