Trend Runner

Hey guys,

Well I really love this thread and this strategy but I felt it would be responsible to code it into an EA and backtest it over the past two years of data. I went over it again and again and it’s as close to the way I would have manually traded it as could be possible. Herewith then, the results:

[ul]
[li]Currency pair: GBPUSD
[/li][li]Contracts per trade: 6 micro lots
[/li][li]Start balance: $12,000.00
[/li][li]Final balance: $10,713.12
[/li][li]Total profit/loss: -$1,286.88
[/li][li]Maximal fall of balance: $1,524.18 (12.7%)
[/li][li]Number of trades closed: 172
[/li][li]Number of profit trades: 102 (59.3%)
[/li][li]Number of loss trades: 70 (40.7%)
[/li][li]Average profit per trade: $13.49
[/li][li]Average loss per trade: $38.05
[/li][/ul]

I used the exact rules as stated in the first few posts. I used fixed ratio money management to determine the position size, much like the original poster uses.

All in all, it’s disheartening. When I look at the charts with my eyes only, I tend to only see the nice big moves and it seems like it simply has to be profitable, but alas the results don’t lie. Over the past two years on the GBPUSD it made a 10.72% loss!

I am running an optimization on the system now with stuff like moving to break-even after the ATR pips was completed and not just 30 pips, not moving to break-even at all but just moving with S/R levels and so forth. Still, forcing a system into profit over a specific time period was never a good idea, so unfortunately it seems that I will not be trading this strategy anymore.

I would really love to hear from the original poster and perhaps he can shine some light on this. I could have most certainly made a mistake despite trying to be very thorough.

Hope this helps somebody!
Cheers.

Bummer…I like this system and am demo’in on the 1 Day timeframe. Shame it doesn’t work…:frowning:

Thanks for the back test, and as you said… It would be nice to hear from original poster.

I’m assuming you tested it on the 4hr.
The results you posted are very interesting and provide me with some reassuring info… It shows that it has tremendous success in the win/loss aspect, and that it fails terribly in the risk/reward aspect. Thus providing us with the weak point to resolve.

I’m not a proponent of mechanized systems or systems without a discretionary component. From the trend runner, I only took the trade entry part of the system (the highly successful part), took it to the daily TF and used my own discretionary concept to manage the trades. My average win is bigger than my average loss (the opposite of your backtest results). So far I’m pretty happy with the results.

Moral of the story, make things your own.

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Abrsive,

Yes, I tested on the H4 chart. In short, I tried to stay 100% true to the original system.

Now it’s true, as you said, that there are many good points to this system where it just makes sense in the way it trades. It really is up to ourselves now to take the concepts and make it our own.

If you would keep sharing your results as well, that would be awesome, especially after a couple of months where the stats that you have become a realistic reflection of the cycles of the market.

Cheers.

Cyandez, great post. It quantitatively shows what I was repeating long time ago. The average loss is at least 3x the average win. Could you please test it over say 10 years, possibly for 2 uncorrelated pairs? 2 year is likely too tight.
Don’t throw away the EA too quickly. Considering the time you spent on it, I would test it over several years and pairs, possibly testing different parameters.

I also have found better results just using the entry part of the system on 1 D TF, and taking profit when I feel happy

Hi all, have you tried to test on D1 timeframe? I think it could be successful. If you want share EA, i will be happy to help you in testing.

Snip

Hi guys,

I’ll run a backtest on daily data as well on two or so pairs and post the results here later today.

Until then.

Hey guys,

As promised, my backtests on the daily timeframe.

For disclosure, I changed the following settings because we are now working on a different timeframe.

[ol]
[li]Changed the initial stop loss price to 2x the daily range versus the original 100 pips, to allow for a realistic stop order price.
[/li][li]Changed the rule to move to break-even when the daily ATR is met and not the arbitrary 30 pips.
[/li][/ol]

The two pairs I chose to test was the EURUSD and the AUDUSD. The reason for this is that they currently have a -17% correlation, in other words they are as close to 100% different as it probably gets.

I tested from 1 February 2010 to 31 July 2013.

Herewith then, the results.

[ul]
[li]Currency pair: EURUSD
[/li][li]Contracts per trade: 4 micro lots
[/li][li]Start balance: $12,000.00
[/li][li]Final balance: $11,631.68
[/li][li]Total profit/loss: -$368.32
[/li][li]Maximal fall of balance: $570.24 (4.8%)
[/li][li]Number of trades closed: 36
[/li][li]Number of profit trades: 18 (50%)
[/li][li]Number of loss trades: 18 (50%)
[/li][li]Average profit per trade: $24.29
[/li][li]Average loss per trade: $44.76
[/li][/ul]

[ul]
[li]Currency pair: AUDUSD
[/li][li]Contracts per trade: 3 micro lots
[/li][li]Start balance: $12,000.00
[/li][li]Final balance: $11,893.62
[/li][li]Total profit/loss: -$106.38
[/li][li]Maximal fall of balance: $439.26 (3.7%)
[/li][li]Number of trades closed: 42
[/li][li]Number of profit trades: 17 (40.5%)
[/li][li]Number of loss trades: 25 (59.5%)
[/li][li]Average profit per trade: $35.05
[/li][li]Average loss per trade: $28.09
[/li][/ul]

I think the results speak for themselves once again. This sucks, to be honest, because I really liked this system’s logic for taking trades. The only way then it would really succeed is by trading it as a discretionary system and not purely mechanical.

Let me know what you guys think :slight_smile:

Take care all.

Thanks for the detail test run. Could you let us know how you find the correlation and the daily ATR?

Hello,

I followed this thread from beginning until the end, are you guys and girls still trading this strategy? If yes, how is it going?

I’ve created a modified version of this for myself that I am trying to trade/test. I’ve barely spent much time lately on Forex but when I did a number of weeks ago I was averaging 3%/week gain in demo.

It looks like it is an old thread and nobody posts anymore. I’m testing this system , I’ve read all the rules and took notice. I have some questions if anyone out there watching, following this thread:
How do you secure profit?
The author of the system talks about SL but not about TP target. How do you close a trade with profit?
I know the rules are: When it changes color and goes below / above S&R … etc but If I close there than I lose most of the trades.
Please anyone help

HI ilzalama, Download the indicators and template the supertrend indicator don’t seem to appear in the chart.

Thank you so much for sharing this important information with us.

i already download but its only appears indicator SnR Barry and Signals Bars. Anybody can help us ??

indicator for simple moving average does not appear. can u help me

Can someone please help me with the super trend indicator?
I already download the iza’s zipfile but still, i cant use it with mt4.

If i seach online, it seems its a different "super trend indicator"
I need the original “super trend” indicator of iza, but it keeps on showing error on my mt4.

Someone help please??
I am using IC Market, MT4 and cTrader.

Thanks

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I just spend the last 2 days reading EVERYTHING :hushed::hushed::hushed:. What happened to this trend? Somebody still using it? I’m using it now :star_struck:

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I cannot get the super trend indicator tooled on my charts?? any suggestions??

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