Well I really love this thread and this strategy but I felt it would be responsible to code it into an EA and backtest it over the past two years of data. I went over it again and again and it’s as close to the way I would have manually traded it as could be possible. Herewith then, the results:
[li]Currency pair: GBPUSD
[/li][li]Contracts per trade: 6 micro lots
[/li][li]Start balance: $12,000.00
[/li][li]Final balance: $10,713.12
[/li][li]Total profit/loss: -$1,286.88
[/li][li]Maximal fall of balance: $1,524.18 (12.7%)
[/li][li]Number of trades closed: 172
[/li][li]Number of profit trades: 102 (59.3%)
[/li][li]Number of loss trades: 70 (40.7%)
[/li][li]Average profit per trade: $13.49
[/li][li]Average loss per trade: $38.05
I used the exact rules as stated in the first few posts. I used fixed ratio money management to determine the position size, much like the original poster uses.
All in all, it’s disheartening. When I look at the charts with my eyes only, I tend to only see the nice big moves and it seems like it simply has to be profitable, but alas the results don’t lie. Over the past two years on the GBPUSD it made a 10.72% loss!
I am running an optimization on the system now with stuff like moving to break-even after the ATR pips was completed and not just 30 pips, not moving to break-even at all but just moving with S/R levels and so forth. Still, forcing a system into profit over a specific time period was never a good idea, so unfortunately it seems that I will not be trading this strategy anymore.
I would really love to hear from the original poster and perhaps he can shine some light on this. I could have most certainly made a mistake despite trying to be very thorough.
Hope this helps somebody!