Can i be honest with you, and please do not take offense, but what you are asking for is information that is meaning less.
Total balance in pips, average pips G/L per trade, number of trades per day/week is all information that will not help you analyse a trading method.
Instead I will give you % which is what really matters.
The win/loss ratio is approx 85% over the last 24 months. Full disclosure, a “win” by my standard is ANY TRADE THAT ENDS IN PROFIT. So even if I get 1 pip to the good it is a win. In actuality a win/loss ratio is not a good way to judge a system. With the risk/reward and MY static stop and MY money management method, the percent of trades that achieve a R/R% = 1:1 or < is approx 45% over all pairs traded. The other 65% of the trades fall anywhere in between.
The % of trades the end in a loss over all is roughly 15%. Of those > 25% actually hit the full 2% risk amount (100 pips). Again these numbers are for the last 24 months.
The pairs I trade ( as mentioned above) are currently AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF & XAU/USD (GOLD) through Oanda.
This method, in general, takes many small wins ( protecting capital) fair amount of double digit wins, a few large wins ( amounts in excess off 200 pips) and a rare massive win ( anything over 400 pips).
On the down side the losses are always kept to 100 pips ( 2%) but do not always get that far. There will be many small to average losses in the 30 to 60 pip range. Again this is over the last 24 months.
Hi ILZ, absolutely no offense. I agree with you.
I also think % are more relevant, but still total G/L pips gives an additional info. Since you don’t have a fixed R/R, we don’t know how much exact profit we are generating. I suggest you give both in each report (% and pips). Also, I think number of trades per week (or day) is important, since each person has his own trading style and wants to quickly check if your system adapts to his (trade/life) requirements.
I am just trying to keep things simple and brainstorming, in order to get the global picture in a more clear way. So it would be great if with each report you could update/summarize the “total” quantities (being them percentages, pips, etc., the more the better). I am still interested in the total pips and number of trades you have got in the past 24 months (besides the very important % you mentioned, which are nevertheless too vague, e.g., “fall anywhere in between”), should be easy to check. Could you share that info?
I started to do a little backtesting on a trading simulator, just to see how the system behaves on different market conditions. My plan was to do the testing on 2003-2012 data, but it takes way too long.
What I have tested so far is for 2003, the following pairs:
AUDUSD: net gain 403 pips
EURJPY: net gain 407 pips
EURUSD: net gain 961 pips
GBPJPY: net loss 416 pips (from what I have noticed, in 2003 the volatility of GBPJPY was exceptionally high, and the 100 pips SL and 30 pips buffer for reentries is far from enough for this kind of markets - still the system keeps you on a breakeven-ish kind of result even in these markets, so it may be wise not to trade the system in pairs with high ATR, or adjust the SL and buffers accordingly)
And here comes the goodie:
GBPUSD: net gain 1651 pips
USDCAD: net gain 2170 pips
I will spend no more time backtesting as it is clear that the system works pretty much in any kind of market, and keep it only on the live account.
A word of caution, though. You need to be very strong mentally to close trades manually with a loss, because most of the losses will be closed manually, mainly when the price moves against you and closes above/below supertrend or MA.
Thanks again ILZ for this system and I will share my results weekly with you guys.
One last thing, all the testing and the live account are with Pepperstone, not Oanda, which has different time for the closing of 4H candle.
Hello ILZ and thanks for all your efforts.
You change your initial 100 pips SL after a new candle pops out right? Also do you keep open positions for more than a day? Apologies in advance if you replied those questions and I missed them!
Cheers
P.S: I want to start using your system, do you recommend any pair that is trending now specifically?
With regards to the open positions, I can answer you. You may keep a position opened for several days at a time, perhaps even more if you are in a very strong trend.
For the SL, it is explained pretty well in the initial posts.
(Long case: above SMA and supertrend). The candle breaks resistance and closes say 20 pips above this resistance. Do you trigger the trade? If not, do you wait the next close or just set a limit to +30 from what? From the resistance or from the candle that closed above the resistance?
Is this scenario applied always, i.e. for both the first (rare) SMA break and for the subsequent re-entries?
Please, can you specify in detail your setups, possibly with a chart plus arrows?
I am quite confused by this 30 pips rule and it seems key for the strategy.
Thanks.
I will start doing that this week, keeping track of % & pips as well how many trades on a weekly basis. As for how many trades per week average and pip totals for the last 2 years, it was about 13000 pips ( Averaged out to 540 pips a month) with around 1500 executed trades over 24 months ( Averaged out to about 62 trades a month).
Remember these are averages. Also, Gold is not included in these figures.
Wow, I did not even go back to 2003. It seems that the average looks about the same, 5176 pips ( or 431 pips per month) VS 6500 per year ( or 541 pips per month) over the last 24 months. The last 2 years have been a bit more volatile.
Price moves 30 pips in my direction, then I move to BE+3
When a S&R line appears, then I move stop to that line +/-3.
When price has shown a new S&R but no S&R line has appeared and I am up a lot.
As for anything trending right now? Most of the JPY pairs have done a nice move, but as of now they are retracing. I am basically in a wait and see pattern. I still have a few trades open but they are pretty much done.
Thanks for the share. I was looking through your trades and see a lot of wins and not very many loses. I’m definitely going to be following you. I will probably even try this one out myself. It seems rather simple yet very effective. I might have some questions for you in the near future. Thanks again.
Could you please check the next GBPUSD chart. I took that yellow arrow candle (13/05/13 8:00 am) as a sell signal because is breaking the 200 SMA and the support level. I see that you did not take that entry. What I am missing ? By the way, thank you for sharing and teaching your system
