dow jones making a full stop at the red line as it was expected (i explained in the thread earlier or in another thread what the red line is, i think it was in another threa, ill copy paste the link to the other thread later).
Now the next few days the dow will be a complete mess with ups and downs and minor moves, so theres absolutley no use to try to trde anything there as the gains can be minimal and losses high. it is unpredicatbable.
for now it is best to wait and see what is happening, after a clear sign of the red line beein broken or holding we can think of new positions.
Turbo, why would you take that short on the DOW in your earlier posts? What made you think the DOW would go down?
Your decision was straight up TERRIBLE! The DOW just got out of the accumulation stage into the markup. Volume was high at the bottom and then it gapped up 3 times with full bullish bars closing at the top! Do you think smart money wants to sell that early? Was there any sign of weakness in the market telling you they plan on taking profits barely after it got out of the range? NO!!! They accumulated for a few weeks which means they will take profits in a few weeks. You made such a noob mistake I can’t even believe it. Not only you made a terribad mistake but you added extra positions short, UNBELIEVABLE! Then you went long for no reason. Why? Tried to be one of the late comers to join the trend? LOL Good job you got it right!
You said the DOW was in a downtrend for the past year…ROFLMAO!!! I mean this is HILARIOUS HAHAHAHAHAHA! A kid can tell you that it has been ranging with a very slight downward bias, but the forever trend of the DOW is bullish. You opened a thread that “all we need is price action”, yet you still use moving averages and indicators, sad. You really need to impress me with your next trades for me to start having any faith in you.
ill answare what i have remembered from it if i leave out something remind me of it please.
I dont use indicators or oscilators. Bollinger Bands, P-Sar are price action tools, Power Points aswell. Those tools are not beeing used to enter positions (except powerpoints sometimes) they are used as confirmation and to define good exit points. in the oild chart you can see moving averages simply because i was to lazy to remove them if you want the truth. the last year and something i did not touch oil and when i started trading it again out of lazyness i didnt remove the SMA’s. its good you reminded me of that because i simply dont even recognise or realize theyre still there.
About the first dow trade: nobodies perfect, you have to have losses somewhere and that was a mistrade. It wasnt a completely mistrade as i gained 200 Points out of it i just didnt brag about it here because it did not hit my desired target which i postet here as Target 1.
One more thing i need to add aswell, i enter positions before i post here. For me trading is first then when i got the time i post here. So when i post a good enter position it is very much normal that i am already into that trade since a hour or sometimes longer. So that dow trade i was in it 2 hours before i posted and had a much better starting position and was already in 90 points or so in profit when i posted here.
About what you said that i went for no reasons long about Dow a few days later: i went long for good reasons, i explaned them in another thread (thats where you found the trade aswell as that long trade was never posted in this thread here) and gained 300 points profit by risking 70 points. And no i was not a late commer in this trade (the long in march for dow jones), as this was one trade i posted here, the trade i did on dow jones which brought me straight up 700 points i did not post here. You can find that trade in this post if you are interested: 301 Moved Permanently
If you read the post about price action then you aswell saw where i posted about “gaps”, at that point i was already long on the dow and that long got closed only last week. The long i posted here was very late as i kind of did not post much on this thread here, but from my position it was scaling in and not a new trade.
About faith:
we only need faith in god, i dont need you to have faith in me, in fact i want you to doubt me! that is why i like your critical post if you want the truth. If you want to succeed in stocks/forex you need to be the wolf not the sheep, sheeps follow, wolfs are critical. so i wish you good luck and keep up beeing critical about things that are beeing served for free of charge!
Edit: ah yes i forgot that you mentioned the bearish trend in the dow. It is very easy, a bearish trend is categorized as a bearish trend when you have a loss of 15%. afterwards- as long as the new “hights” stay below the all time high you are forcing a short term bearish trend. at the moment technically speaking the dow is still in a bearish trend untillthe high of may-2015 is beeing topped. Untill then it is the old very simple definition of trends = lower lows and lower highs= bearish, higher hights higher lows = bullish. if it is trending or not is something that still needs to be confirmed (i made a post about a trending period of the dow jones a few days ago somewhere else aswell). But at the moment i am hoping for a crash for 2016 out of ciclical reasons it is about tome for a stronger downmovement.
Alltime trend for dow is… bullish… yes you got that right, but that is due to a hige influence of inflation over the last 100 years so if the dow would trend at the same spot for 10 years everybody would actually be loosing. to hold its value every year the dow has to be bullish at around 5% just to keep upwith the standard inflation we had the last 30 years etc.
but herer we are going into economical factors of trading and to be honest this place is not about economy but rather about charting which has nothing to do with economy or fundamentals so if you want further explanation of such “factors” you need to get some good economical books which are hard to come by in the internet or on forums.
dow jones acting as predicted. making a full stop at the red line. noone knows what to do at the moment. i see some tiny accumulation of short contracts here and there but the volume is pretty much 0 so theres absolutely nothing to act upon at the moment. The entire week will be this slow as it seems. Now the only thing thats left to do is to wait. I am accumulating short contracts around 17640 points at the moment. everytime that mark gets hit i add a little bit more to the existing short contracts. other then that all that can be done now is wait for good confirmations.
But dont get all exited. the first down move (if the line holds) is going to be only a few hundret points, like 400-600, then it is going to get up a bit again and trend likethat for weeks or even a month or two.
The price is lingering around the first big resistance line, which i already said in the past is unlikely to hold. Its a up and down which is very unpredictable right now so only thing left is waiting. if the line is holding then the price will drop further bu… it will come back to retest the line again (not by 100% but the possibility is high) and that will make a great entree point for a good trade as the risk will be extremely low andreward very high.
It doesn’t matter what the definition of a trend is. Trading is more subjective than objective. The dow is not in a downtrend. It is simply ranging with a bearish short term bias. Also failed to make a lower low so according to your book definition it’s not really trending. When I see a trend I can recognize it and I just don’t see one. If you wanna see a clear downtrend look at 2008. Compare that to now and you see why it is not trending down. A solid breakout of that low will put it in a confirmed downtrend. Untill then it’s just ping pong.
so the dow is slowly approaching a good basis from which we can think of entering positions (in this case short from my bias)
The possible outcomes of the next day/two days (trading days of course) are a direct break trhough the new red support line or a bounce and then brake. whatever it is is not important at this moment.
why is it not important? simply because the downwards movement is still so incredibly fresh and starting slowly that the possibility of a retest of the big reg-lined line and the new red full line is very likely.
The retest of one of these lines (from the downside) is my sign to go short (unimportant which one it is). i will not wait for many confirmations but i will look to come as close as possible to those lines to enter more short contracts to my existing ones immediately.
Heres a chart of the two possible outcomes i explained above. yellow is one, white the other.
I have to appologize for the Dow trade. After beeing in a good profit of 150 points, Yellen had to do her pretty pink glasses speech and the crowd bought the FED debates as something very positive so once again FED pushing the market up without having any good reason to do so. withoutthe yellen speech the dow was on perfect track in a nice downmovement.
When i see new opportunities in Dow ill post them but for now theres nothing to do.
Oil on the other hand, not affected by a “every 2 day some dump pressconferences”-FED, had some difficulties today which were easy to stand out as they didnt even touch the entree point and not even close to stop loss.
So oil with 130points profit on the right track forfurther profits and therefor offsetting the losses on Dow Jones for a small profit since yesterday. if continuing this way more profit the next few days.
If oil turns around today again and starts rallying then the plan is trash and the position should be closed at brake even.
I planned to post Oil and Dow Jones here but here today i found a great situation in the Gold which i can not resist to share. Entered Position this morning with profit of 1200 points so far.
The plan is to hold till 1184 within the next week/twoo/3 weeks which is a profit of around 9000 Pips (please keep in mind a gold pip is worth much less then pips in other markets.
So who would liketo join the movement is only in itsbeginning phaze.
this trade is really annoying so far. it isnt going against the short direction but it is a very slow mover and slow developed. Still lingering around 120-130 points profit. After it brakes through 39,75 it shouldnt come back that fast again anymore. Take profit still around 38,3
