oil-long trade stil going on - finding spots to scale in
gold is at resistance but doesnt give signs/opportunities for actions
dow jones is flat moving +/-150 points since days not showing any signs of choosing a direction
best choise: do nothing and let profits run
edit: ah by the way, in dow jones the report season is starting toda with Alcoa as the first to open their books and reveal numbers. untill the reports dont show any signs of economy running better or worse the dow jones wont move anywhere. traditionally you dont expect any news/changes from FED in the report season and how the april is performing depends only on the reporting companies in the Dow. Alcoa is always a good indicators (Steel industry, raw goods for other industires) as onto how the report season will go, if steel is running good expect other industries to go good aswell = expect good running economy in US.
oil trade temporarly closed = expecting a swing low today between 42 and 41 and will reenter with new/higher positions after that. target still 45. who wants to take a drawdown of 100-150 points can freely stay in as the trade is still perfectly valid and extremely bullish.
the trade itself was a nice rocket, immediately in plus and no retracements the entire time, a really “easy-to-hold-on”-trade.
you can now slowly find a good spot to close the trade. id recoment 44.85 if you want to be on the safe side. theres still likely potential for it to go to 45.6.
unfortunately i made the mistake to go out on 400 points plus as i was expecting a swinglow which then didnt happen and i missed the last third of the move.
oil is strongly bullish and after a consolidation phaze i will post new entree for a new long position.
you can aswell stay in the actiall trade as its a great brakeout. a retest of the 42 is likely thou.
We are heading to some heavy resistances in the DAX (GER30) therefore I will include DAX trades here aswell within the next 4 weeks. as soon as there is some movement downwards and good entree position i will post them here.
The DAX has shown strong signs of weaknesses in the past 5 months by simply not following the DOW jones and the less valued german INDEXES like the M-Dax and the S-Dax. Other European indexes have aswell outperfomed the DAX in the last few months and therefore the dax is the best candidate to short it in good points.
Please remember, to always short the weakest asset and long the strongest asset ouf of a basket of compareble assets.
edit: in strategy tactic talk that means: when you see downwards movement then you short the DAX, when you see upwardsmovement then you long the dow jones.
heres an example how i use bollinger bands to define a good close of a trade. in young trends people watch those “natural” support and resistances closely as nothing else is close by. in a movement into one direction where the broad public is not sure yet if it is a legitime movement then bollinger bands suite very well to close trades and wait for a swing-back or a retracement.
Trends dont cha nge within one day, it takes several for the public to realize that things are changing.
unfortunately for some reasons the last 2 days i was not able to post in the forums of babypips. i dont know why and i thought i got banned or something, but after switching to chrome instead of firefox i was able to post again since 5 minutes or so.
So unfortunately i could not post about another oil trade here which is developing good. i hope others saw this opportunity aswell and got into short into brent oil as at this moment the short from 44,22 is around 160 points in profits and target is 42.10
close oiltrade, it headed out too far in too short time. this is becomming dangerous as we are at a very specific moment where actually noone knows what “should” be next. we had a nice rally the last few weeks and continue to hold onto this short is too risky as we can always expect a return of the bulls to get rid of their last bit of power, or - we are seeing right now since yesterday, the last try of the bears to push the price down. its unclear at the moment so rather take 210 nice and secure profits then to gamble guessing whats going to hapen.
aswell on the fundamental note, this weekend we have the meeting of the biggest oil producing countries with the opec countries together. that was one of the reasons why the oil rallied the last few weeks. taking any positions without knowing what the outcome of this weekend will be is pure gambling and i advice to not touch oil at all till monday (even better tuesday after the market has decided how to take the oil meeting this weekend [positive or negative]).
if the price falls deeply below the 42 and then retests it or comes back close to 42 again it is safe to go short again but at the moment it is simply too uncertain what is going on/what will happen.
I was awaiting the dow to hit 18000 before i go short on it but today and yesterday it showed signs of weaknesses which makes me believe it will not hit 18000. at the moment if its swings back to 18000 it will aswell go further up as then the movement will be strong but my believe is that this is it and weare going for a consolidation. it aswell suites with cyclical analysises of the april behaviours the last 10 years.
short dow jones. 17900
target unclear as very young and undeveloped downmovement
as i said, headed out too fast.
another example how to use bollinger bands to find a good exit point.
a too strong BB-bands penetration in 90% cases ends in something like this (over 100 points retracement).
outcome of the weekends oil producing countries was bearish for the oil price.
even thou all countries agreed to freeze their production on the actual output level iran did not agree to it and therefore the entire agreenment is pretty much useless.
Oilmade a huge dive of (wti) 3,5$ (350 points) minus on the opening price on monday and will continue the next few weeks into that direction.
any enter right now is too dangerous, we need to find a new resistance level onto which a entree is possible. as soon as i find a good spot i wil post a short on oil.
keep up the good work Turbo
