[TW] 04-02-2012 AUD/CHF Long by Lupos (it's ME!)

[lupos]

Pair: AUD/CHF (Daily)

Long or short: Long

Chart:

No more to say:

now it’s at 0.938
strong support line at 0.93

so we can choose to enter now or later if it reach 0.93 and stochastic continues to stay in oversold.
This position means a long long period of trading.
Consider that the bank interchange rate is the maximum profittable, so no problem for leave it open:
AUD . 4,25%
CHF . 0.00%

also fibonacci says 0,93 is a good support line, but i didn’t draw for better and clean view.

Another good thins is that the Swiss National Bank decided in semptember to act in order that EUR/CHF stay up of 1.200 rate change.
now EUR/CHF is around 1.2400 so if it go deeper SNB acts to devaluate CHF with impact on all CHF/crosses, like AUD/CHF.

Entry: Now 0,938, if it reachs 0,93 and stochastic oversold buy more.

Stop loss: 0,9240 (lower than previus support line)

Reward-to-risk: 3:1 (variable).

Target: first 0,95, second 0,97 (2 or 3 weeks period)

[dudest]

Hi Lupos!

Thanks for sharing your trade idea.
When you said that the idea above would mean a ‘long long period of trading’, i headed over to my weekly chart, saw it as below.

I agree with you that 0.9300 seems to be a strong S/R zone! (probably coz it’s a Big Round Number)
It seems that after the strong uptrend, price is about to conclude a retracement to this level to test whether it will hold as support. I’m hoping it will find support here, and that it will produce a price action signal (e.g pin-bar ) to decisively show it’s going long (thereby stacking the odds of success in my favour).

Again, thanks for sharing!

Dudest

[lupos]

yes

and i forget:

the swiss National Bank decided in september that EUR/CHF MUST stay up of 1.200 and now EUR/CHF is around 1.240, so it if it go deeper the SNB come in market and acts for devalue CHF with impact to all chf/crosses.

maybe not monday, maybe not thuesday, but nevermind, i open 0,01 lots and I gain 0,05 € each day: I can wait…