[TW] 12-19-2011 SHORT AUD/USD by Jabroni


[B]Long or Short: [/B]SHORT

[B]Entry Point:[/B] 0.9980

[B]Stop Loss:[/B] 1.0070

[B]Profit Target/s:[/B] 0.9800

[B]Reward-to-risk Ratio: [/B] 90 pips vs 180 pips (2:1)

[B]Risk percentage: [/B] 1.5%

[B]Indicators:[/B] 100SMA (red line)

[B]Trade Rationale: [/B] risk off markets, i think AUDUSD will have a tough time climbing up above parity to end the year.

also, potential major resistance level:

  1. falling trend line
  2. 100SMA
  3. 1.0000 major level

[B]Trade Adjustments:[/B] moving my stop to BE if my trade is positive by 70 pips. i might start cutting my position near 0.9900

so far so good… moving my stop to limit risk exposure…

Entered in on this at .9982 on friday before market close :o its looking real nice having it i just checked the market today. I lowered my stops to breakeven and suspect it to fall around what your expected is based on some fib stuff, what do you think?

Based on the Fib, it actually tested the 61.8% line twice and could not close above it. this is based on a daily chart. if anyone happened to go short around the 61.8% or 50%…lucky. .9800 sounds like a great profit goal.

yes, my thoughts exactly. im also targeting .9800 since it seems like a reasonable extension, and it was also a key level back in 11/28/2011. i think if .9900 gives way, next stop is .9800.

Hi there,
I noticed that it went below .9900 and then bounced back up after hitting the .9882 area. Do you think it will go back down ? and to what extent ? do you realisticly think it will get close to 9800 area ? what would be a good point to close it ?

Thank you !

I have lost more than 20 percent on it, thinking it was going to hit the .9800

eeeeeek. so yeah… i hit my breakeven + 10pip profit so then once it broke the three trend line I went long. and yes baby. way long.

At what point did you realize that it is breaking the downtrend ?and how did you figure out the target for going long ?

i ended up closing a part of my position at .9900, the rest got stopped out at break even. good job on going long after the break of the trend line though!

it broke it at .9935 and when it showed strength for a third indicator, i bought long at .9978. almost wish i bought it at .9940 or .9950. anyhoo, i also took my profits at 1.0200 and went short which gained my second 190+pip profit using fibinoochi (spelling wtf) lines to find out when it’d bounce back up. now I am long again and its going great.

This is unbelievable ! not that I dont believe you though But how did u realize that u gotta take profit at 1.0200 and not earlier ? and what do you mean by that it showed strength for the third indicator ?

stopped at 1.0200 cous of fibinooci and if u look at a daily graph the last recent high was like 20-30pips above 1.0200 i think, haven’t checked in a while.

Interesting. Well, where do you think the next move is ?

probably shorting, its plateau’ed so could go both ways but the daily chart proves to show maybe a downtrend so we’ll see. im on a short atm.

What do you think of websites like this : https://www.ibfxconnect.com/ Where you have “Experts” that you can follow ?

be your own expert and trial and error learn, babypips all u need. btw, check out aud/usd :stuck_out_tongue:

i just shorted at 1.0355 after it broke the trend line, broke the macd curve, and had 3 bearish candles at the one hour timeframe, goalline is 1.0200 and i’m already up 24 pips.

Which trendline ? Are you talking about the one from january 2-3 ?
Also, how can u know it will go down even more ? and how did figure out the target ? and how sure are you about the target ?
I might short too, so let me know soon ! Thanks !

the uptrend line made from the one hour timeframe with the 3 swinglows, and the uptrend can kinda be seen in the daily chart from dec15 on. i dont know it will go down even more but i hope it will due to my 3 indicators, (macd, broken trend, 3 bear candles) target is made from the doji at 12/27 daily chart. im already 90 pip profits in.