[TW] 2-20-2012 Long USD/HUF by AKANTARDJIAN

A: Currency Pair: USD/HUF (Timeframe: 1 week)

B. LONG!

C. Entry Point: 219.000

D. Stop Loss: 217.000

E. Profit Target/s: 227.000

F. Reward-to-risk Ratio: Risk is High with the Greek Debt tensions looming

G. Risk percentage: 1%

H. Indicators used: This was more of a play on the fundamentals, but i did use pivot points and Fibonacci to find some good entry/exit levels.

[B]I. Trade Rationale:[/B]

  • The deadline is looming for the greek debt deal (March).
  • The creditors are expected to take a 50-70% haircut…and like it
  • The CDS owners are going to get robbed of their money because this is a “voluntary” default
  • The people of Greece are revolting

All of these fundamentals equal MORE TURMOIL. To top it off, we got more reports today of lawsuits already being prepared by the creditors AGAINST a resolution forcing them to take a a steep haircut. Might the ECB eat all of these debts thus driving the LRTO wild? I dont know, but i do know that there are a lot of triggers that could lead to disaster. The HUF usually trades similarly (although more volitile) to the Euro…so as the Euro gets smashed…the HUF will collapse. People will be rushing (stupidly in my opinion) the the USD.

J. Trade Adjustments: No adjustments other than raising the limit if this thing looks like it is going to run wild. Raise the Roof with a trailing stop
[B]
****COMMENTS WELCOME![/B]