[TW] 2012-06-22 EURUSD LONG by Bijoymj


See 4 Hour Chart of EURUSD

Now the price is resting at a nice upward trend line.

Also see the one Hour Chart

A beautiful bullish Gartley pattern is formed.

Long or Short: LONG

Entry Point: 1.2530

Stop Loss: 1.2500 (prev low)

Profit Target/s: 1.2630 (At prev broken support which may act as resistance)

Reward-to-risk Ratio: 3:1

Risk percentage: 2%

Indicators: Trend line with Gartley pattern
Trade rationale: Recently the pair broke an upward trend line and a support @ 1.2630 and found new support at another upward trend line as shown in above 4 Hour Chart. Normally a pull back to the broken support is always expected. Also a beautiful bullish gartley pattern is formed in the one hour chart.

Trade adjustments: If the price broke the trend line and go down, a stop loss order will be placed @ 1.2500 with a target of 30 pips below the 4 Hour trend line to gain back the stop loss pips. Also stop loss will be brought to BE when the trade gains 40 pips.

Maybe you should adjust your target for a much better r:r.
I would say 1.2800

As a Daily chart trader, I have no price action evidence that eurusd would be crossing above 1.2600 again without making it to 1.2440 medium but pivotal support. Failing to make it to 1.2600 on friday mini rally could be one of the signals that the pair i still heavily short. Having closed my short already for the weekend, I plan to reopen short positions targeting the mentioned support. 1.2440 area looks a more credible spot for rally. Suggestions of 1.2800 are out of mark as pair has shown that 1.2750 is the resistance to beat if it is to advance further. With the massive inside bar formation on the Daily chart broken down, I simply don’t see eurusd above that line for the time being until a credible low is made
Good luck still if you prefer staying long

Since the pair is still on bearish track and we are playing the pull back motion based on a trend line and a bullish gartley pattern, target above 1.2700 may be more risky. It is always better to keep some pips in our pockets better than lossing while going for a better r:r .

I do agree with you. The pair is still on the bearish track. But, based on my trading experience with harmonic price patterns, I am expecting a pull back, before it starts another fall to the mentioned support at 1.2440. I will also be entering short (Subject to formation of some bearish patterns like ABCD, crab, Butterfly, Bat, Gartley etc., - as Harmonic patterns always gives me bread and butter) once it completes it’s pull back and touch target.

Any how, Nobody can drive or predict the market. Let us try and hope to make things better.

totally agree. but hes trading gartley, and targets adjusted accordingly i guess. i went long on friday at 1.2523 (20 was my chioice butt spreads allow that much) and will be targeting above .2800. stops above 1.245 and if this lvl gets broken its a market crash!

it bounced of 50% fib of rally from 1.2288-1.2746. Thats a clear long in my book. and thats how reversals start. Even its a correction, i dont mind booking few hundred pips.

This trade Idea was posted when the price was oscillating around 1.2570. Then I placed a pending order and got it triggered within 1 hour at 1.2530. Now the trade is up by some pips. Waiting for price action to hit target. Still now, I feel that the price may test the entry point once again before hitting target during Asian session and hence not brought the stop loss to BE. I will take stop loss to BE, once the price crosses 1.2590.

this looks familiar! :wink:


I am showing an 85 pip gain on an active short position. It was opened on the 21st, at 10:48… i came to baby pips today to see if the ‘experts’ agree with this position, since im seeing a lot of resistance. When i saw that a long position on EUR/USD was trade of the week, it scared me a little. Is your position still open? Did you post any gains? Im in this position based on fundamentals, but your technical analysis disagrees completely.
Thoughts anyone? Ive got three lots on this position now, with a 25% ROI… I am willing to back out now if anyone thinks its the right choice.

Trade Idea was totally on technical analysis. Trade was triggered in Asian session on 25.06.12 @1.2530 and hit stop loss @1.2500 in the same day. But it was clearly mentioned in the trade idea that, we should go for a short trade targeting stop loss pips immediately after, and if it hits stop loss. So on hitting stop loss, I went for a short trade @ 1.2497 and the counter trade hit@ 1.2467 on 26.02.12 which gave me my 30 pips back.

Of course, no pips were gained on this trade. But those who followed the trade idea as it is, didn’t lose any pips.

I remember i wrote that i did not believe EUrusd would be crossing 1.26 without hitting 1.2440 area. Well it just happened today. If at all I was still long, I would consider this the best op to bail out with hard earned money.
Pair seems determined for 1.2300 levels

Thanks for your quick reply. I ended up backing out of my position at 1.25012, 25 pips from my stop loss. i didnt like the way the chart looked. I was good i did, cause it would have hit my stop about 15 minutes later.

May be. I just entered a short position @1.2515. SL is 1.2540 and TP is @ 1.2450. What is going to happen. Let us see…!!!

Good. But I think the pair is now bearish and can go up to 1. 2300 levels, if it breaks 1.2450.

It seems bullish to me, at least on the 1 hour chart. RSI is strong but not oversold. Stoch is a little oversold, but i think its got the strength it needs. Four hour chart looks like it tested a couple resistance levels and bounced back. Again, strong upward trend on Stoch, and decent strength on RSI. At the moment, i am tempted to open a long position. Overall this week, it has been quite rangebound. I would agree that if it breaks 2450, it will resume the downtrend, but im not ready to open a short position at the moment.
Curious to see what happens.

Good Luck …

My entry as per post # 14, Hit TP @ 1.2450. Again shorted @ 1.2445 with target 1.2400. Currently trade is up by 15 pips and stop loss brought to BE @ entry.

His is short term, yours is Long term.