[TW] 2012-09-15 Short USD/CAD by littlebopip

Trading Discussion
#1

Pair: USD/CAD

Time frame: Daily/Weekly

Trade rationale: USD/CAD has been on a strong downtrend lately and I really think this is the best pair to play when it comes to diverging interest rate expectations. BOC is already thinking about hiking rates while the FOMC just announced further QE.

The next support level seems to be around the .9450 mark so I’ll just keep shorting and aim for that area. I already have a couple of short positions entered last week but I’ll add at .9650 and at .9550 for an additional 3:1 reward-to-risk.

#2

I would wait with shorting now.
EU most likely will get a pull back in the coming week, and some more pull back for UCAD is in the charts.
But who knows.
And after so much reaction on last Friday’s FOMC Canada might reconsider hiking rates.
Don’t forget that we just had an 800 pip down already.

And it also depends sharply on what oil prices are going to do.

#3

I can’t find anything regarding Canada thinking of interest rate hikes.
Only thing they said 2 month ago is we will not lower interest rate. Nothing about hiking.

Also Ucad at these levels 0.9650 - 0.97 is definitely hurting Canadian economy and helping US economy.

#4

Killerwhale - As always your comments are very logical and practical. I agree with it. There seems to be a lot of support for UCAD at current levels. I would also like to short the pair but current scenario is still not bearish (even after QE).

All the best to all.

#5

Lolz, I just made 35 pips going long.

4 hr chart including indicators bullish, daily the same.
Strong support since Friday = 0.9762

I wouldn’t think of shorting this now.