U.K. July Halifax house price index rose 1.1% m/m, largely in line with the Nationwide reading for the same month (which was 1.3%) and with the 3m y/y rate now down 12.1%. This is the third monthly increase for the index this year and follows -0.5% m/m and -15.0% 3m y/y in June. Halifax data hence serve to highlight that the housing market might now be stabilizing, though low supply is distorting price comparison.
The USD and JPY are likely to retain their inverse correlation to stock market performance and the associated ebb and flow of risk appetite. Currently we have more ebb than flow as equity markets pause after recent impressive gains, fueled by an overall better-than-expected Q2 corporate earnings season and encouraging global economic data. Concerns about a correction in China’s market resurfaced today, with banking stocks pressured amid a view that Beijing may tighten capital holding requirements, while potential for further upside corporate earnings announcements and guidance is reducing simply due to the fact that the majority of companies have now reported. So, the tone for European morning trade will likely be supportive for the USD and JPY and negative for higher beta type currencies. There is some potential for a sharper recovery in the U.S. and Japanese currencies given the extent of net short positions held by the market, though we may need some sort of catalyst (i.e. negative news of data event) to spark a short-covering squeeze. A busy data calendar looms today.