UK Industrial Production to Shrink at Slowest Pace in 4 Months in June

The annual pace of decline in UK [B]Industrial Production[/B] is expected to moderate for the fourth consecutive month, with output shrinking -11.4%. [B]Manufacturing Production [/B]is set to contract at the slowest pace since February, down -12.1% in the year to June. More of the same is likely ahead: July’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly ticked into expansionary territory for the first time in 15 months, suggesting a further rebound is to be expected. However, as we mentioned in our British Pound Weekly Forecast, these readings are unlikely to prove particularly market-moving considering traders have likely already priced in the stabilizing effects of the ample global fiscal boost and inventory restocking that is driving current improvements into the exchange rate. Indeed, the question to be answered from here is what will happen after the flow of government cash dries up and the inventory cycle runs its course.