UK Retail Sales

On Friday we will get a look at UK retail sales for March which are expected to contract 0.4%. Forex traders would like to see a continuation of strength in the UK economy which would support the British Pound and continue calls for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England as well as a reduction in stimulus. This should further bolster the rally in the British Pound.

Imagine, The Last Bear, what would happen (just go with the fantasy, for argument’s sake) if…

the asset purchasing went down,

the interest rate went up,

and the Funding for Lending Scheme were revitalised…

Maybe that historic 1.6900 GBP/USD level would get speared through… The sky would be the limit!

Back to Earth… I expect no int. rate change at the next meeting,

which means that there will also be no press conference / forward guidance, which

means that it could be a damp squib!

However, if the retail sales were to rise by 0.01%, would the market really take notice? Or the BoE? Hmmm…


To get a handle on the pending numbers sometimes the CBI can be helpful:

CBI: Retail sales continue to grow but at slower pace – CBI

Also accounts KPMG may be of some interest:

BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor March 2014 - March sales dis | KPMG | UK

Thank you, Peterma.

I do not expect an interest rate hike by the BoE until the end of the year, but would not be surprised to the the GBPUSD trade around 2.0000 in the next 18 to 24 months.

Well the UK outlook continues to improve, even in manufacturing:

There we go, UK retail sales better than exp.

Is it possible to know this in advance?

CBI press release date…

CBI: Growth in retail sales rebounds – CBI

Should have added, the timing of above release was at LO, plenty of time to set a buy order at weekly pp, which got hit at NYO yesterday (6762)

Just read yesterday about the market being a random walk :slight_smile: