Unable to become proffitable

hello, just joined so first of all hello everyone :smiley:

I hold a first class masters degree in economics and am a professional stock broker in the city of London, however i seem to find it impossible to turn a profit trading. When i try a new system ill win the first 5-6 trades followed by a series of losses. i never risk more than 5% and look for 15% profit in all trades. I understand the market fundamentals however it seems as though the market always goes the opposite way despite fibo, every indicator i have and price action suggesting the opposite.

could any one suggest anything to help me get out of this rut??

thank you

[quote=“maxowen1, post:1, topic:148119”]
When i try a new system ill win the first 5-6 trades followed by a series of losses. i never risk more than 5% and look for 15% profit in all trades. I understand the market fundamentals however it seems as though the market always goes the opposite way despite fibo, every indicator i have and price action suggesting the opposite. [/quote]
Could you specify:

  • what pair(s) you are trading?
  • what time frames you are using?
  • are you trading a demo account at the moment?
  • what size account are we talking about here?
  • how long has this been going on for so far?

Hi maxowen,

I have a diploma certificate. It appears to me you have good money management, high intellect and discipline.

I would like to offer my FREE service to help you out of the rub.

1st is price. After a breakout, at what percentages of daily range will price continue to travel in the direction of breakout?
Is it 25% or 50% or 75%?
Or is it 31.2% or 50% or 61.8%?

Out of ten times, how many times does price pullback before continuing in the direction of breakout?

2nd is time. Out of 10 times, when is the high or low point of the day done?

Good Luck Master of economics!

hi thank you for replying

Im trading all the majors
trading 15min charts, but only if there is a trend confirmation on the 4hr
real, until recently, ive gone back to demo trading till i become consistently profitable
£5000 real account
just changed my system, however prior to this i had 25 winning trades and 32 loosing trades. im looking for around 75% winning trades.
i have identified ares that i need work on, particularly preventing emotion from getting involved and better managing my risk. ive chosen a more mechanical system to help deal with this, i feel that a short time frame high trade volume suits my personality.
i have spoken to friends at my firm who are consistently profitable and they have told me my system seems sound.
perhaps i need to work on my expectations. My goal in the long term, if i can become consistently profitable is to sell my £50K crypto investments and start trading forex full time.

i guess what im asking for is any advice from experienced professional traders. I suppose i feel a little lost in the market and im looking for some kind of community. in the long term im qualified for a position at a forex fund, i have spoken to people in the industry and i need to compile a journal of consistently profitable trades for a year, however i find my self getting frustrated, ill make a few hundred one day followed by loosing it the next.

thanks

Perhaps we should start with the end of your posts and work towards the beginning:

[quote=“maxowen1, post:4, topic:148119”]
in the long term im qualified for a position at a forex fund, i have spoken to people in the industry and i need to compile a journal of consistently profitable trades for a year, however i find my self getting frustrated, ill make a few hundred one day followed by loosing it the next. [/quote]
OK, that is a fair enough objective…and a year’s track record of consistency is also a fair (minimum) requirement.
However, I don’t think that a track record based on trading 15m time frames is going to be either relevant or consistent in this particular context. Contrary to what many think, trading short term intraday time frames is exceedingly demanding in terms of discipline, patience and pinpoint accuracy as well as selection of instruments and trading session times.

[quote=“maxowen1, post:4, topic:148119”]
trading 15min charts, but only if there is a trend confirmation on the 4hr… i feel that a short time frame high trade volume suits my personality. [/quote]
It might suit your personality but it is not going to suit your objectives…or your profitability. As you have noted, one of the “enemies” preventing successful trading is emotions. On a 15m TF there is no room for emotions. OK, there is the buzz of fast and frequent trading, but that is not going to take you where you want to go… And where there are emotional difficulties there is little room for progress. Also 4 hour “trends” may be a bit far away from 15 min to allow time to be in and out. If you are going to trade these short TFs then maybe 4H/1H or 1H/15m might work more in synch?

But I suggest you drop this short term trading and concentrate on daily positions that give you time to think and plan a strategy. If you can achieve that then your track record will look after itself.

[quote=“maxowen1, post:4, topic:148119”]
ive gone back to demo trading till i become consistently profitable[/quote]
OK, then you have no problem with moving to a daily charts basis for your trading where inevitably stops and profit targets are larger than with a 15m TF.

Winning percentage is not really the most relevant metric for rating your success. But you are on the right lines that risk and money management are crucial to consistency…and also in joining professional fund!!! No professional fund needs a 15m timeframe rodeo cowboy who wins big one day and loses the next, and whose risk management is based on gut feel.

[quote=“maxowen1, post:4, topic:148119”]
Im trading all the majors [/quote]
I would suggest you concentrate on only 2-3 pairs at this stage, and not necessarily all against a common currency, eg, USD.

1 Like

Thank you for your reply. i understand 15min time frame is small however i do personally know professional traders who focus on this time frame for intraday trading although I’m sure daily signals are significantly stronger. Based upon the strategy that I’m using, trading daily time frames, perhaps only once or twice a month will i see the setups I’m looking for, maybe i need to adjust my strategy. I am currently back testing on the 4 hours and 1-hour charts however and have adopted a more mechanical system to help eliminate the impact emotion plays. My risk management is not based on gut feel; i only open a position if the previous high or low where i set my stop loss is equal to at least 1/3 of my profit target, this way i only need to win 1 out of 3 trades.

Thank you for the advice, i will work on my risk management and try longer time frames. Are there significant differences between the major pairs? Ill definitely look into this.

Indeed I am sure there are. It was my “bread and butter” for many years. Nowadays I trade 4H/1H with one eye on the daily charts. But I was referring to the context of your future ambitions and building a track record for that purpose.

Sounds good!

[quote=“maxowen1, post:11, topic:148119”]
i only open a position if the previous high or low where i set my stop loss is equal to at least 1/3 of my profit target, this way i only need to win 1 out of 3 trades.[/quote]
Good that you are selecting strategic levels for your stops and not just wherever a set R:R ratio calculates for it. There are of course other issues such as position size, scaling in or out, fixed or trailing stops (either manual or automatic), and so on. But i am sure you are familiar with these issues.

Well yes, to the extent that every pair is based on two currencies and that means two sets of fundamentals each with its own characteristics and issues. For example, GBP is very much Brexit-oriented at present as well as the basis economic factors. Some, like CAD are affected by commodities. So, for example, over recent days the EURUSD has looked very different to USDCAD. But taking too many pairs can obfuscate the learning potential whilst you are concentrating on your strategy and management issues.

Another issue is the possible use of crosses between the majors and in this respect you might like to take a look at this thread. It is NOT a trading method or strategy, it is purely a method of analysing the relative strength and weakness of the majors in order to suggest which pairs might perform with the best potential with whatever trading strategy you personally use. It seems to be achieving some success in that endeavour:

https://forums.babypips.com/t/trading-the-trend-with-strong-weak-analysis/77959

You didn’t specify the problem. Trading is not just about a good strategy. It also involves how you execute your strategy, how you control your emotions, how you manage your risk. In most cases, there’s no problem with strategies. But the problem is with our psychology. For example, Sometimes you take trade in the fear of losing opportunity. You have to find out your weakness and strength. Then work on your weakness.

1 Like

Exactly , success on trading not only depend on its trading strategy , of course there is no way to deny the importance of analyzing trading strategies, but besides this we have to ensure real money management , otherwise maximal result will not come out in spite of having powerful strategies.

The simulated account can only reflect the profit situation in the absence of mentality, it does not represent the situation in the real transaction, because there are a lot of psychological factors that aren’t taken into account.

Indicators are always lagging behind, and indicators have also the feature of deception, so you will think that indicators are opposite to the behavior of price.

Ah, this is interesting. You’d sell all of your crypto investments to go full-on forex?

i will help if you like i am starting a trading thread

If you want to use Fibo, maybe you should play with the settings, so that you can adjust everything to yourself - look on the Internet, there is a lot of information about it, maybe the analysis does not coincide with the timeframes that you focus on.

If you are easily given analytical information - you should try your hand at fundamental analysis, there are specific figures, precise indicators, preliminary forecast, if you apply leading assets - you will get it.

I think you just need a little more practice, maybe you should practice more on the demo, it can really help. I don’t want you to get the impression that everything in the market is going against you. Believe my experience, it’s not.

I think you should try other methods of analysis if you think this one doesn’t allow you to get to the plus side. Still, such situations should not be a pattern, plus I would advise you to read about false breakdowns, this is a frequent situation in market analysis…