Hi.
I was wondering – under what circumstances people thought the Euro might weaken after the upcoming German Federal Elections on September 24th?
Of course, it would appear Merkel’s victory seems to be a foregone conclusion. But outside of the fairly clear certainties that Merkel’s CDU will win most votes with the Social Democrats coming second, in which circumstances might we see the Euro weaken come Monday when the retail forex markets begin again.
Thanks!
Yeah, something that I have to watch for.
One of the current drivers in Euro price is GBP, Today on the ‘leaked’ content on UK PM speech offering an olive branch of sorts (20 billion) to the EU27 was viewed as GBP positive.
Cold light of Mon morning is a different story, the UK thinking is that EU27 states will not have to re-jig their respective budgets and so pressure Michel Barnier into acceptance.
As usual the devil will be in the detail, people movement being one of them.
It’s worth noting that EurUsd rose today despite the fall in EurGbp.
Likely that there will be conflicting coverage in the media over the weekend, but I wonder whether this could be a case of buy the rumour etc.
The German election may not have the impact that the French one had, neither contender are ‘Dexit’, but if exit polls (usually accurate) suggest the status quo then Euro positive.
The balance of probabilities remain with the Euro buyers right now.
Note the effect of Eur/Gbp today - some selling on Gbp (sell the fact) - helped Euro buys
Markets don’t like uncertainty. If there is uncertainty then it would be negative for the EUR.
