Some really interesting price action to start this week. I’m focusing on several pairs/setups, but two that intrigue me are the EURUSD and the GBPUSD.
EURUSD
Consistently being sold with small pullbacks over the last two weeks, the pair has continually conceded support levels and made a series of LH’s (lower highs) with the selling getting pretty aggressive last week. I’ll look to sell rotations up towards 1.3345 or 1.3425 targeting 1.3150. Notice the bearish engulfing bar at the 20ema which started the heavy selling this last week.
GBPUSD
Getting hammered for the last 30 days, which are also 30 daily closes below the 20ema, the pair on thursday formed a counter-trend pin bar. This was definitely not a pin bar to buy, and anyone espousing this really does not understand the trends, volatility or pin bars.
With the UK losing its AAA credit rating, I expect medium term selling to resume, so will look for corrective pullbacks into 1.5315 and 1.5415 to rejoin the trend until I see evidence of a reversal.
Today was like the good ol’ days where the JPY pairs moved several hundred pips in a day. Ahh, refreshing to say the least.
But ironically the big mover today was not the beast (GBPJPY), but its cousin EURJPY which got hammered losing over 600 pips from top to bottom today, thus its hard not to talk about it.
Its natural for a pullback after such an extreme move, but look to sell any rallies towards 122.54 or 122.83 targeting the lows today at 119, for an eventual break towards 117.58 and perhaps much lower. Because of the massive selling today, it is highly likely long term bulls have booked partial or most of their profits from the recent uptrend, so selling should resume after a short pause.
FYI - days like today are days where you can make a lot of money, especially in moves and trends like today with many with-trend breakout pullback setups, so make sure to capture these plays and stay with trend as much as possible.
Thank you. Sharing ideas like this enrich our trading methods.
quote " Many things can affect price action and how it manifests, such as;
-The total liquidity available in the market for that instrument
-The total number of buying and selling orders executed in the market
-The volume (size of the position) of each buying and selling order executed in the market "
true this are important to keep in mind specially The volume (size of the position) of each buying and selling order executed in the market .
Hope you had a nice weekend. Very Nice Analysis Chris. Yesterday was a very good day in terms of volatility. However missed some good trading opportunities.
Hi Chris. I like your posts a lot, very informative.
I was looking at this one too (EUR/JPY) and was ready to enter at the upper resistence level, but seams my mind is not ready yet.
You don’t use H1 timeframe here, but it formed 2 H1 pinbars at the resistance level which should have some weight.
Hope tomorrow will be some good oportunities too
hi chris sorry for off topic…but i am waiting 4 ur reply …
fir example if we are using couwabunga system on our mt4, then our broker will come to know about the indicators that we use?
does he can look at our indicators that we r having on our charts? i dont think so…what do you say?
please friends…any one who know about this please give me a reply…
Yes, these are all crucial things - but in the fx market, rarely do individual orders and their volume/size of the position heavily affect the market. Considering $4T moves through the market daily, no one order will ever really make a dent, save for a periodic central bank injection.
But tracking each buying/selling order/volume would be impossible being a decentralized market.
If you can learn to read price action in real time, then you can get a great sense of where the market is going, where the big players are pushing it, getting in and out, and how to trade it.
Yep, so did the EURUSD form some 1hr pin bars at key levels which was a great tip off the 1.3315 level was likely to hold.
That plus the follow up failed attempt to retake those highs/level and you’ll notice the selling was heavy after that.
Hmm, I do not remember seeing your question earlier about this, so if i missed it, I apologize.
Your broker really doesn’t pay attention to you if they are just matching orders or doing straight through processing. They do not care about you as you are not big enough.
If they have tens of thousands of clients, they cannot monitor all of them and what they are doing, nor move the market to get their stops - this is a myth and a psychological mechanism to avoid the truth and pain that trading is your responsibility and your fault if you lose money - not the broker. Sure, there are moments where brokers have been caught using unfavorable slippage and pricing, but for the most part, they are just trying to match orders, and cannot monitor all their clients.
if i am consistently above 90% profitable and there is no matter of loss , then do they do what i have asked? (our broker will come to know about the indicators that we use?)
please reply me…i am waiting for ur reply…thank u.
no, they are not going to know what you are doing, or what indicators you use. As long as they are not your counter-party, this will never be an issue.
And FYI - there is nothing special about the indicators you are using
While the JPY pairs continue to break down and put more pressure on the downside, I want to talk about gold which has now gained for 4 days straight, with today being it’s most impressive day.
The PM intraday formed a strong breakout bar after clearing the big figure and key resistance at $1600, just touching $1620 before pulling back a tad.
In the process, the pair formed an ii pattern (back to back inside bars) with very little selling follow through.
If this holds, ill take a corrective pullback towards $1600 to buy targeting $1620 and $1638. A break back below the level targets $1585, $1572 and $1560 (chart below).
Hope you are doing good Sir. Very good analysis on Gold. I am also tempted to buy Gold at the moment. Patiently looking for your levels to get something.
Trading psychology is one of the biggest things a trader can work on, and often their greatest hurdle, so if you can learn to turn this into an edge, you’ll be way ahead of the game and see your trading compass turn north.
Thanks for the kind words mate. I appreciate it as I have a lot of pride in my work.
Anyways, thanks.
The Euro has been gaining ground as of late, building a case for a short term bull run. However, looking at the 4hr chart below, we can see the bulls have been trapped by sellers on every rally. Thus, I’ll stick with the downtrend, and look to sell higher at the 1.3303 level which is where the last round of impulsive price action selling began.
